A nine-week runoff for the Republican nomination for governor began late Tuesday, with Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle besting Secretary of State Brian Kemp for first place.
The evening was chock full of hints about what might happen next:
Chris Riley, chief of staff to Gov. Nathan Deal, warned that he’ll tolerate no criticism of his boss between now and July 24, which could give an advantage to Cagle, whose language Tuesday night implied a continuation of current state policies.
And while Kemp and Cagle are fighting each other, state GOP chair John Watson let it be known that he’ll carry the fight to Democratic gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams, launching an immediate attack on her personal finances.
As for Kemp, we can’t help but remember his question to Clay Tippins, who finished out of the money on Tuesday, in the final GOP gubernatorial debate. How do you suppose Cagle makes his living? Kemp asked Tippins -- who professed that, gosh, he didn’t know. Cagle protested what he said was a low blow, but that may be where this race is headed.
As for Democrats, Abrams' victory wasn't that much of a surprise, but her likely November running companions could give solace to supporters of Stacey Evans.
John Barrow, who once was the last white Democratic congressman from the Deep South, appeared headed to the nomination for secretary of state without a runoff.
And Sarah Riggs Amico, a first-time candidate and trucking company executive, was headed for victory in the Democratic race for lieutenant governor.
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Updated at 10:37 p.m.: The mainbar on the Republican finish in the race for governor -- with Casey Cagle and Brian Kemp moving to a July 24 runoff -- can be found here. The concession statement from Hunter Hill, the next place finisher, via the AJC's Amanda Coyne:
"I congratulated Casey Cagle and congratulated him on running a great campaign. I think we are going to need another set of ideas moving forward, but he is moving on in first place. Brian Kemp also ran a great campaign and is moving forward, and I congratulated him."
"We do not have forever to turn our state back toward fiscal sanity. If our leaders tackle these issues, our best days are ahead."
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Updated at 10:35 p.m.: Jason Carter, the 2014 Democratic nominee for governor, has crunched some numbers:
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Updated at 10:30 p.m.: The report from the AJC's Mark Neisse:
At least two House Republicans were unseated in primaries on Tuesday: State Rep. Johnnie Caldwell, R-Thomaston, and state Rep. John Deffenbaugh, R-Lookout Mountain.
Caldwell, the chairman of the House Reapportionment Committee, lost to Ken Pullin, a state committee member of the Georgia Republican party. Pullin will face Democrat Chris Benton in the Nov. 6 general election.
Deffenbaugh was defeated by Colton Moore, a 24-year-old University of Georgia graduate. There's no Democratic Party candidate in the general election.
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Updated at 10:25 p.m.: I just fielded a call from Brad Raffensperger, the surprise Republican leader in the race for secretary of state. With 35 percent of the vote, the former state House member is likely to be joined in a runoff by north Fulton mayor David Belle Isle. Both are running ahead of Josh McKoon and Buzz Brockway.
Raffensperger said he began his quiet statewide campaign of door-knocking about 14 months ago. He confirmed something that his consultant, Mark Rountree had told me: Yard signs were a big part of the effort -- “Raffensperger” is difficult to pronounce. A large dose of TV at the end didn’t hurt.
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Updated at 10:14 p.m.: One of the lingering questions of the evening is whether state Sen. David Shafer of Duluth will be able to escape a GOP runoff in the race for lieutenant governor. As of this writing, he has 48.41 percent of the vote, with one-third of precincts in his home county of Gwinnett yet to report.
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Updated at 10 p.m.: A GOP runoff message from the state Capitol:
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Updated at 9:40 p.m.: With nearly half of all precincts in, balloting has tightened in the Georgia race for governor. 326,000 GOP ballots cast, versus 211,000 for Democrats.
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Updated at 9:30 p.m.: With the GOP race for governor headed for a runoff, Georgia GOP chair John Watson takes it upon himself to launch the first attack on Democratic nominee Stacey Abrams -- minutes after she claimed victory. Watson goes where Stacey Evans didn't:
"Not only would Abrams' job-killing policies reverse years of progress for Georgia families, but her long list of ethical issues raises serious concerns about her ability to uphold the trust of the public....
"I've tried to make sense of her personal and professional finances, and my head is spinning."
"The only way for voters to get clarity on a growing list of ethical issues concerning her finances is to see her tax returns and payment history for her entire tenure in the state Legislature. There should be no "forgetting" or "misfiling" with the IRS."
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Updated at 9:09 p.m.: Democrat Stacey Abrams is declaring victory in her race for governor against Stacey Evans. And the AJC now agrees. From the Abrams Facebook page:
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Updated at 8:57 p.m.: House Speaker David Ralston, R-Blue Ridge, appears to be surviving his GOP primary challenge by Margaret Williamson, 74 to 26 percent with 3,500 votes counted.
But state Rep. Matt Gurtler, R-Tiger, who was targeted by Ralston and even Gov. Nathan Deal, appears to be surviving the primary challenger they financed. Gurtler is leading Mickey Cummings, 58 to 42 percent.
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Updated at 8:45 p.m.: From the AJC's Ariel Hart at the Stacey Evans watch party:
Buddy Darden, a former Georgia congressman and chairman of Stacey Evans' gubernatorial campaign, said he had no idea how the results would turn out, but he noted Evans had out-raised Abrams within the state. "I don't know," Darden said. "I don't know who's voted. I know this: She's given her all to it."
One Democrat at Evans' event was immune from disappointment: Doug Stoner, a former senator, was also planning to visit Abrams' event afterward. He didn't endorse either. "I think either one of them offers more support for the state than any of the Republican candidates," Stoner said.
For those who think the campaign was acrimonious, he demurs. "All I can say is it was a lot more civil than previous Democratic primaries," Stoner said.
But Stoner might have one reason to be a little bothered. With 12 percent of the statewide vote in, he's losing a Public Service Commission District 5 race to Dawn Randolph, 23 to 77 percent. Of course, metro Atlanta has yet to weigh in.
Republican Tricia Pridemore, the incumbent in that race, also has primary opposition.
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Updated at 8:35 p.m.: Casey Cagle, still the frontrunner in tonight's GOP race for governor, has made another pass through the crowd, per the AJC's Jennifer Brett. Says Cagle:
"The night is young but this is really about celebrating friendship. This is a huge honor for us along with our great family who is with us. We're very grateful to be with you and to share this evening with you. We clearly are in first place and I expect us to stay in first place. We're going to keep pushing. This is a great night, regardless of what happens, whether we're in a runoff or not."
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Updated at 8:17 p.m.: The AJC's Amanda Coyne, filing fro the Hunter Hill party, says the GOP candidate for governor just did a walk-thru: "Tonight's going to be a long night and we'll see how it plays out," Hill said. He's currently running a distant third.
The scene via Greg Bluestein at Stacey Abram’s party at the Sheraton Atlanta:
A few dozen people are trickling in, where a mix of hip-hop is blasting from giant speakers around the ballroom. Abrams is not yet here, but folks are lining up to buy hot wings, pizza and chicken tenders from a campaign canteen.
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Updated at 8:05 p.m.: Jim Beck, the alleged bad boy in the GOP race for state insurance commissioner, has built up a hefty 14,000-vote lead over industry favorite Jay Florence.
On the Democratic side, Janice Laws is leading consumer advocate Cindy Zeldin by 5,000 or so votes.
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Updated at 8 p.m.: For those of you in search of a Democratic surge, some not-so-good news. With 4 percent of the vote in, GOP balloting in the race for governor leads Democratic ballots, 36k to 18k.
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Updated at 7:51 p.m.: The surprise of the evening so far is the GOP race for secretary of state.
With 3 percent of the vote in, Brad Raffensperger leads David Belle Isle, 33 to 31 percent. Presumed favorite Josh McKoon is at 20 percent. Buzz Brockway at 16 percent.
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Updated at 7:45 pm.:
If early trends hold, the top of the Democratic statewide ticket in November will be Stacey Abrams for governor, Sarah Riggs Amico for lieutenant governor, and John Barrow for secretary of state.
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Updated at 7:37 p.m.: We've reached the 10,000 vote mark, 11 percent of precincts in -- all from rural Georgia, so GOP ballots are outnumber Democratic ones 2-to-1.
In the GOP race for governor, Case Cagle still leads with 39 percent, followed by Brian Kemp at 31 percent. Hunter Hill comes next with 15 percent.
On the Democratic side, Stacey Abrams leads Stacey Evans, 3,000 to 1,500 votes -- roughly. Elsewhere:
-- Geoff Duncan has just edged Rick Jeffares in the Republican race for lieutenant governor, both behind David Shafer.
-- Sarah Riggs Amico has a 56 percent lead in the Democratic race for governor.
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Updated at 7:30 p.m.: Early boxes are from far north and far south Georgia.
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Updated at 7:25 p.m.: The first votes in the race for governor are trickling in. On the GOP side, Casey Cagle starts with 44 percent, Brian Kemp next with 31 percent, out of 621 ballots counted.
On the Democratic side, Stacey Abrams leads Stacey Evans by a 2-1 margin, with 564 votes in.
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Updated at 6 p.m.: When the time comes, and the hour is near, this'll be the link to the AJC's compilation of election results.
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Updated at 5:32 p.m.: Cobb County is set to get a turnout of between 15 percent and 17 percent of its 473,000 registered voters, according to county elections head Janine Eveler. (So reports the AJC's Ben Brasch.) In the 2014 primary, she said, that number was 17.6 percent.
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The polls haven't closed yet, but Casey Cagle already seems to be polishing his pitch for a GOP runoff in the race for governor. My AJC colleague Jennifer Brett, who's hanging with the lieutenant governor's crowd in Gainesville, filed these quotes from the candidate on the topic of religious liberty:
"I think you can have economic development, but you don't have to sacrifice your values. And I will be a governor that, obviously, will not sacrifice my values – and I don't think we have as a state.
"But also, I would make the value-added proposition of what this state has to offer. And listen – the lowest-taxed state in the nation. That is who Georgia is…Now, will there be diversity of thought? Absolutely. But diversity of thought, in my opinion, makes us all better."
The video:
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