After the Braves won 67 games in 2015, the fewest since 1990, team boss John Hart said he believes they will be "significantly better" in 2016 by perhaps as many as 15 to 20 wins. During one of GM John Coppolella's occasional attempts to defend the team's moves during the off season, he declared that that the Braves "will win more games" in 2016.
These weren’t bold proclamations—it’s easier to go from awful to better than from average to good—but they were significant because none of the moves made by the Braves make them obviously better in 2016. They are building to what they hope is a better future, but nothing has indicated that includes 2016.
Now that all MLB teams are pretty much set for spring training, we turn to the season projections at FanGraphs. The advanced statistics website crunched the numbers and decided that the 2016 Braves will be . . . exactly the same as the 2015 Braves.
Well, FanGraphs isn't predicting the Braves will be exactly the same. it projects that the Braves will score a few more runs in 2016 and give up a few less that it will all add up to 67 wins again in the end.
Specifically, FanGraphs predicts the Braves will score 609 runs in 2016 after they scored 573 last season and will allow 735 runs this season after giving up 760 in 2015. According to the FanGraphs forecast, the Braves’ 187-run deficit in 2015 will become a 126-run deficit in 2016, and the Braves will finish fourth in the NL East by 21 games this year after they were fourth by 23 games in 2015.
Yay, progress?
Usually these kind of pessimistic predictions are met by howls of protest by fans of the affronted teams. But judging by the mood of Braves fans nowadays, I doubt even the more optimistic among them will take much offense at the FanGraphs prognostication because what would be their argument, exactly?
The Braves traded away their best starting pitcher, Shelby Miller, and ace Julio Teheran is coming off his worst season. The rest of the rotation will feature unproven young guys and maybe a stopgap veteran. Young pitchers can get better, of course.
There’s still little power in the lineup. Better health for Freddie Freeman and Nick Markakis will help. Hector Olivera might produce once he's more comfortable. Coppolella has argued that the Braves can win more games with Erick Aybar (good glove, pretty good bat) at shortstop rather than Andrelton Simmons (great glove, bad bat).
The bullpen might be better, too. It was good in 2015 before Jason Grilli got hurt and Jim Johnson got traded. The bullpen was decent for stretches even after those setbacks and there are enough proven arms headed to spring camp (including Johnson) to think the relief pitching will be adequate.
The FanGraphs projection agrees that some of those unknowns will break the Braves' way and they will score more runs and give up fewer. It’s just saying that it will mean 67 wins, again.
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