I didn't expect Georgia to be 11-1. Back in May, I picked them to go 9-3, the losses projected against Tennessee (whoa), Florida (ouch) and Auburn (right). I had the Bulldogs running second to the Gators in the SEC East; Georgia finished four games in front of the receding reptiles.
To say I saw this coming would be a lie. But I do try to pay attention, and a review of a missive offered in the wake of Georgia's dismissal of Mississippi State on Sept. 23 offers evidence that my assessment was evolving. On Memorial Day, I didn't think Georgia would be playing for the SEC championship. By the end of September, I was sure it would.
This is – file this under, “No shock, Sherlock” – a very good team. It can run the ball and play defense. It can throw it better than you’d think. Its special teams are rather good, which by Georgia standards is stop-the-presses stuff. The Bulldogs are slight underdogs to a team that beat them by 23 points 2½ weeks ago, but nobody would be surprised if, on a mostly neutral field, they up and won.
And now we arrive at a “but.” I think we all know how good Auburn is. The Tigers just beat Georgia and Alabama, which are – going by the latest College Football Playoff rankings – two of the nation’s six best teams. The Bulldogs’ two best wins are against No. 16 Notre Dame, which lost two of its final three games, and No. 23 Mississippi State, which did likewise. Both those tests came in September.
Given the utter ineptitude of the teams that finished below Georgia in the SEC East, the Bulldogs have had only one legitimate chance to lose in two months – and they lost 40-17 at Jordan-Hare Stadium. We note how other Easterners finished: South Carolina lost by 24 to Clemson; Florida lost by 16 to Florida State; Kentucky lost by 27 to Louisville; Tennessee lost by 18 to Vanderbilt, which had previously been winless in league play. Only Missouri finished on an uptick, and that started after it lost by 35 in Athens to fall to 1-5 overall.
Apart from Auburn, not one of Georgia’s biggest rivals – Tennessee, Florida and Georgia Tech – is bowl-eligible. Since winning in South Bend on Sept. 9, Georgia’s closest margin of victory was 14 points against South Carolina. Until the Bulldogs went to Auburn, such domination led us to wonder if this was simply a dominant team. At least on that chilly day, Georgia was itself dominated.
One loss doesn't mean all that much. The only Power 5 unbeaten is Wisconsin, which has beaten only one ranked team, that being Northwestern, which lost by 24 to Duke. The selection committee's No. 2 team is Auburn, which has lost twice. It's entirely possible that Georgia's bad day in the loveliest village was just that – one bad day. In a climate-controlled building before a divided audience, the Bulldogs absolutely could prevail. Indeed, ESPN's Football Power Index gives them a 50.1 percent chance of wiinning.
Granted, that’s also a 49.9 chance of losing. In sum, this is essentially a coin flip. When last the Bulldogs played for the SEC title, the coin – actually a deflected pass caught on the 5-yard-line as time expired – came up Alabama. Georgia is past due to have something go its way. Maybe Saturday will be that day. Maybe the break has already happened.
Kerryon Johnson, Auburn’s best player, couldn’t finish the Alabama game due to an injury of uncertain provenance. He admits to having hurt his shoulder; to what degree is unknown. He did not practice Monday. He’s listed as day-to-day, but there aren’t many days remaining between now and Saturday. The guess is that he’ll try to play. How long he’ll last is a wilder guess.
Auburn, which looked awful in a September loss at Clemson and wasted a 20-point lead in Baton Rouge in October, has spent this month looking like the nation’s best team. (I’ll entertain arguments to the contrary on Clemson’s behalf but not on Oklahoma’s.) The Tigers have won two big-time games against top-shelf SEC competition. Georgia hasn’t won even one, at least not yet.
I know, I know. You can only beat who you play, and it was Georgia’s lot to be based in a truly terrible SEC East. I expect the Bulldogs will be ready for Auburn in a way they weren’t on Nov. 11, but the difference in teams that day was so vast that you wonder if a change of venue will matter.
That said, much of that difference was due to Johnson, who accounted for more yards (233) than Georgia managed (230). If he’s anything approximating his robust self, Auburn would still seem the better team. If he’s a non-factor, the Bulldogs should win.
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