According to various computer models, updated through 13 games, the Falcons will make the playoffs. These projections include:
-- FiveThirtyEight: 65 percent to make the playoffs, 22 percent to win the NFC South.
-- The New York Times: 60 percent to make the playoffs, 15 percent to win the division.
-- PlayoffStatus: 59 percent to make the playoffs, 15 percent to win the division.
Projecting anything about the Falcons this season is risky but their playoff chances look good. Philadelphia (11-2) and Minnesota (10-3) likely will be the NFC's top two seeds (in either order) and get first-round byes. The Eagles have lost quarterback Carson Wentz for the season with a knee injury but backup Nick Foles has experience as a starter and is good enough to help Philadelphia win at least two of the last three (at New York Giants, home vs. Oakland and Dallas). The Vikings could win all three of their games against Cincinnati (5-8), Green Bay (7-6) and Chicago (4-9).
That leaves eight NFC teams fighting for four playoff berths. Here’s how I think the final three weeks will play out. The teams are listed in order of current playoff standings, factoring in tiebreakers.
• Los Angeles Rams (9-4): This isn't the same Rams' team the Falcons slammed 42-14 last season. Then again, it's not the same Falcons' team, either. Sean McVay should be the NFL's coach of the year for what he's done with the team and quarterback Jared Goff (22 touchdowns, six interceptions). Todd Gurley (1,035 yards, 10 touchdowns) looks like he's back in the SEC. The Rams' only two losses in the last eight games have come to the Vikings and Eagles. Even if they lose at Seattle, they'll win their next two over Tennessee and San Francisco. Playoff forecast: IN (11-5, No. 4 seed).
• New Orleans (9-4): The Saints were expected to be the NFC South's worst team, but they're probably on their way to winning the division, unless running back Alvin Kamara (concussion) is out for a while. Kamara is a big factor in the Saints' running and passing game and when he's out it puts too much on quarterback Drew Brees to do it all. The Saints have an advantageous remaining schedule: home vs. the New York Jets, home vs. Falcons, at Tampa Bay. It's difficult to imagine them not winning at least two, which would be enough to hold on to first place. Playoff forecast: IN (12-4, No. 3 seed).
• Carolina (9-4): This has not been an easy team to get a handle on. Lose to Chicago but beat Minnesota? This week's game against Green Bay could ultimately determine things because of how I believe the following two weeks will play out. The Packers have won the last two with Brett Hundley at quarterback but let's be real: They were overtime wins over Tampa Bay and Cleveland. Even if Aaron Rodgers plays this week, how will he look? The Panthers should win this week and next week over Tampa Bay and will have a playoff berth locked down before the finale against the Falcons. Playoff forecast: IN (11-5, No. 5 seed).
• Falcons (8-5): Their margin for error disappeared when they lost three straight after a 3-0 start. They've won five of seven since, even if looking shaky at times, and now must win at least two of the final three to make the playoffs. Next Monday night's game at Tampa Bay is the swing game. If the Falcons win – and they should because they'll be coming off a long break and the Buccaneers are a mess – they'll be 9-5 going into the last two games (at New Orleans, home vs. Carolina). Playing a potential healthier Saints team on the road and in a short week spells trouble. It could come down to the final game against Carolina. The Falcons are playing better on both sides of the ball now than they were when they lost in Charlotte 20-17 last month. Here's what I see: win over Bucs, loss to Saints, win over Panthers. Playoff forecast: IN (10-6, No. 6 seed).
• Seattle (8-5): If Sunday's loss at Jacksonville didn't bury the Seahawks, it at least made it very difficult for them. They will have to win at least two of their last three games, starting Sunday against the Rams. They also play at Dallas and home against Arizona. The Seahawks may have to win the NFC West and/or sweep their final three games to get in because at 10-6 they would lose a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Falcons (based on the Falcons winning in Seattle a few weeks ago). A loss to the Rams would all but eliminate the Seahawks from winning the West. Also, Seattle's game at Dallas is expected to mark the return of Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott. I'm guessing he'll be pumped. Playoff forecast: OUT (9-7).
• Detroit (7-6): The Lions have won four of their last six but the wins came over the Aaron Rodgers-less Packers, Cleveland, Chicago and Tampa Bay. Ah, the benefits of the schedule. Detroit certainly is capable of winning its last three games: Bears, Bengals (road) and Packers. But I don't see that happening, and even then the Lions would probably need some help to get in. Playoff forecast: OUT (8-8).
• Green Bay (7-6): Even if Rodgers comes back from a broken collarbone, the Packers almost certainly will have to sweep their last three games to get in, and that's not likely with this schedule: at Carolina, home vs. Minnesota, at Detroit. Playoff forecast: OUT (8-8).
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