Three things were clear going into the NFL playoffs:
1) The Falcons hadn't nearly played up to the level of their talent during the regular season. There's ample evidence that underachievement fell on both coaches and players.
2) The playoff field was rather unimpressive, save New England. In the NFC, the two best teams, Philadelphia and Minnesota, both started backup quarterbacks, the Los Angeles Rams’ roster had almost no playoff experience and New Orleans and Carolina were familiar NFC South teams that were as inconsistent as the Falcons.
But looking back, the fact the Falcons won even one playoff game was a mild surprise. Consider how they played against the other 11 playoff teams this season:
SUPER BOWL TEAMS
New England (lost): The Falcons played the Patriots in October and it was their most lopsided loss of the season, 23-7. Their lone touchdown came with four minutes left. The Patriots had more than 400 yards in offense, including 162 rushing. It wasn't Super Bowl revenge. It was a an extension of the Super Bowl's second half.
Philadelphia (lost): Yes, they came to within two yards of winning the divisional playoff game, losing 15-10. But the offensive problems they faced much of the season re-emerged against a strong defensive team and they were shut out for almost the last two and a half quarters of the game. Their only points followed Eagles' turnovers.
CONFERENCE FINALS LOSERS
Minnesota (lost): They played the Vikings in late December, losing 14-9 at home. The offense again failed to perform against a strong defensive opponent, failing to score a touchdown for the first time in two years and ending Matt Ryan's touchdown pass streak at 30 games. The team went 1-for-10 on third downs.
Jacksonville: did not play.
OTHER PLAYOFF TEAMS
Los Angeles Rams (won): The defense stuffed the NFL's highest-scoring offense and the Falcons won the wild card game 26-13. The offense again struggled at times but it was one of the team's more complete efforts of the season, leading to elevated expectations and them even being cast as favorites at Philadelphia. But that proved to be a mistake.
Buffalo (lost): The Falcons lost at home to the Bills 23-17 in October. They were playing without Mohamed Sanu and lost Julio Jones to a hip injury, and the ripple effect was apparent in Matt Ryan's performance. It was another bad home loss (to be followed by Miami and then at New England).
New Orleans (split): The teams split their season series, which tends to be the norm. Both won home games – the Falcons 20-17 in early December and the Saints more convincingly 23-13 two weeks later. The fact New Orleans lost the first meeting after losing running back Alvin Kamara to a concussion early in the game but easily handled the rematch at full strength seems important to point out.
Carolina: (split): Another home-and-home split, with Carolina winning in Charlotte 20-17, holding the Falcons to 53 yards rushing, and the Falcons winning easily at home 22-10 in the regular season finale (although being forced to settle for Matt Bryant field goals on five possessions).
Did not play: Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Tennessee
Add it up: The Falcons went 0-3 against the NFL’s final four and 3-6 against the playoff field (2-5 in the regular season and 1-1 in the playoffs).
Given the body of work, their exit should not have come as a surprise.
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