First-round playoff games are often viewed as good measuring sticks of a region’s strength, because they match the best four teams from one region against the top four from another in a very bright spotlight.
No Class AAAAA region swept its first-round games last season, but four went 3-1. They were Region 2 (Northside-Warner Robins, Houston County and Jones County were winners), Region 3 (Ware County, Coffee and Glynn Academy), Region 6 (Creekside, Stephenson and Mays) and Region 7 (Kell, Dalton and Sequoyah). And by the luck of the draw, those regions are matched against each other in the first round this year – 2 vs. 3 and 6 vs. 7.
So which AAAAA region is most likely to accomplish a four-game sweep this year? According to the computer Maxwell Ratings, it’s Region 4. That would mean Stockbridge over Columbus, Northgate over Shaw, Starr’s Mill over Northside-Columbus and Drew over Carver-Columbus. The only Region 1 team that is favored by Maxwell is Carver (by three points).
- The most competitive first-round matchups are likely to be the ones between Regions 2 and 3, and the best game of them all might be Jones County of Region 2 at Glynn County of Region 3. Both teams finished tied for first place in their regions, making it one of just two such games in the state this weekend (Lovejoy at Newnan in Class AAAAAA is the other). Glynn County finished tied with Coffee for first place but lost to the Trojans in the head-to-head matchup. Jones County was tied with Houston County and Northside but fell to the No. 3 seed because of points allowed in games among the tied teams.
- Lanier posted its second consecutive 10-0 regular season and won its second title in Region 8, but the Longhorns are hoping for a longer stay in the postseason than in 2014, when they were upset by 5-5 Sequoyah 24-21 in the first round. This year Lanier will face East Paulding, which is no easy first-round matchup. The Raiders finished in a three-way tie for second place in Region 5 with South Paulding and Alexander but lost to both teams and settled for the No. 4 seed. A victory over Alexander on Oct. 23 in a game the Raiders lost 24-21 would have given East Paulding the region title. “Seeds mean nothing this time of year,” Lanier coach Korey Mobbs told the Gwinnett Daily Post. “We learned that last year. … As a program, we look at it like in order to get where we want to be, we’ve got to go through that kind of thing to understand what it takes.”
- Looking ahead, there are some great potential matchups in store for Round 2 that are worthy of the quarterfinals or even the semifinals. Fifth-ranked Mays could face a trip to No. 4 Houston County. No. 9 Northgate could face a matchup at No. 3 Lanier. And No. 6 Northside-Warner Robins could be on the road to No. 2 Stephenson. In fact, Northside might have to beat Stephenson and top-ranked Stockbridge to even make it back to the Georgia Dome for a shot at defending its 2014 state championship.
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