Sports

Maxwell Playoff Projections: Round Two

By Loren Maxwell
Nov 17, 2015

Below are the current Maxwell Ratings' playoff projections for each class.

The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Markov Chain analysis of the 2015 playoffs. The analysis represents 1,000,000 iterations.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.

Class AAAAAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Seed Record Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champion Odds
Grayson R 8, #1 11-0 97.44 79.55 3.74 954,783 789,192 611,314 380,566 1.63
Colquitt County R 1, #1 11-0 93.88 78.71 3.65 939,460 895,098 535,034 275,983 2.62
Mill Creek R 7, #1 11-0 90.55 83.08 2.89 975,589 544,698 256,431 112,658 7.88
Roswell R 5, #1 11-0 88.20 82.06 2.81 752,688 700,503 252,938 101,031 8.90
Archer R 8, #2 10-1 92.53 86.61 2.36 724,920 373,534 177,277 85,917 10.64
Peachtree Ridge R 7, #2 8-3 84.47 84.38 2.25 928,707 200,214 94,124 29,739 32.63
Camden County R 1, #2 10-1 78.90 84.64 1.49 247,312 204,823 35,300 7,472 132.84
McEachern R 4, #1 10-1 81.01 88.67 1.38 275,080 80,933 22,698 5,578 178.28
South Forsyth R 6, #1 10-1 65.71 84.66 1.82 752,315 61,790 5,273 380 2,631.13
Central Gwinnett R 8, #3 7-4 68.29 86.34 1.10 60,540 34,597 2,994 270 3,700.25
Valdosta R 1, #3 8-3 68.77 87.45 1.06 45,217 8,556 1,544 141 7,091.25
Collins Hill R 7, #3 6-5 64.07 84.31 1.55 500,500 45,819 2,145 128 7,786.97
Newton R 2, #1 9-2 62.22 83.47 1.55 499,500 48,855 2,453 124 8,072.44
Tucker R 2, #2 8-3 56.43 85.21 1.26 247,685 8,516 257 8 126,031.50
Westlake R 3, #1 9-2 56.97 86.23 1.07 71,293 2,038 181 6 178,706.61
Newnan R 3, #2 9-2 55.50 88.37 1.03 24,411 835 36 1 991,261.21

Class AAAAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Seed Record Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champion Odds
Stockbridge R 4, #1 11-0 73.29 58.78 3.39 918,490 666,821 497,816 311,402 2.21
Northgate R 4, #2 10-1 72.03 62.70 2.42 654,527 388,926 241,676 136,338 6.33
Coffee R 3, #1 10-1 68.41 62.53 2.64 847,096 431,876 245,816 117,701 7.50
Ware County R 3, #3 9-2 67.86 64.69 2.65 770,653 551,711 218,516 108,156 8.25
Houston County R 2, #1 10-1 67.42 64.41 2.10 554,532 317,022 153,611 69,979 13.29
Glynn Academy R 3, #2 9-2 67.23 64.77 2.07 634,599 225,353 139,266 66,779 13.97
Mays R 6, #2 10-1 67.06 65.21 1.84 445,468 240,781 103,912 46,464 20.52
Starr's Mill R 4, #3 10-1 66.51 64.63 1.86 507,499 221,204 88,838 38,589 24.91
Allatoona R 5, #1 10-1 64.38 63.78 1.84 492,501 220,993 90,910 35,079 27.51
Lanier R 8, #1 11-0 63.81 65.46 1.60 345,473 154,329 70,252 26,220 37.14
Drew R 4, #4 8-3 60.95 63.60 1.85 575,176 207,505 52,859 17,554 55.97
Dalton R 7, #1 9-2 59.88 64.16 1.51 365,401 91,828 41,421 12,807 77.08
South Paulding R 5, #2 9-2 56.09 63.21 1.59 424,824 138,005 25,613 6,034 164.72
Rome R 7, #4 8-3 57.57 66.11 1.36 229,347 102,779 20,451 5,376 185.03
Kell R 7, #2 8-3 53.12 66.07 1.18 152,904 24,869 4,986 888 1,124.56
Gainesville R 8, #2 8-3 50.90 64.92 1.10 81,510 15,998 4,057 632 1,580.09

Class AAAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Seed Record Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champion Odds
Woodward Academy R 5, #1 11-0 71.22 55.20 3.38 856,559 685,645 503,240 339,453 1.95
Cartersville R 7, #1 11-0 66.34 55.45 3.01 816,678 622,536 380,151 192,754 4.19
Bainbridge R 1, #1 11-0 66.14 57.83 2.64 646,571 525,566 311,989 156,746 5.38
Buford R 8, #1 10-1 63.73 57.50 2.42 702,033 437,005 186,148 93,582 9.69
Thomson R 3, #1 10-1 59.80 57.23 2.57 927,842 432,241 148,389 60,907 15.42
Sandy Creek R 5, #2 9-2 61.93 59.28 1.76 353,429 248,941 113,799 46,205 20.64
Mary Persons R 2, #1 11-0 59.42 59.04 2.12 750,635 220,821 102,639 41,238 23.25
Jonesboro R 4, #1 10-1 56.86 58.21 2.11 727,307 250,316 98,851 29,561 32.83
Worth County R 1, #3 8-3 56.99 61.42 1.47 297,967 125,860 32,154 11,189 88.38
St. Pius X R 6, #1 9-2 52.87 57.99 1.80 592,184 148,658 44,898 10,185 97.18
Spalding R 4, #3 10-1 55.18 61.75 1.23 143,441 58,633 19,029 5,903 168.41
Liberty County R 3, #2 8-3 53.23 60.61 1.29 183,322 81,387 23,036 5,364 185.42
West Laurens R 2, #2 8-3 50.97 60.24 1.51 407,816 76,834 18,216 3,587 277.81
Marist R 6, #2 9-2 50.23 60.49 1.29 249,365 34,901 8,171 1,794 556.38
Carrollton R 5, #3 6-5 48.88 59.67 1.33 272,693 45,761 9,060 1,516 658.51
Grady R 6, #3 7-4 36.09 60.16 1.08 72,158 4,893 228 15 65,282.74

Class AAA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Seed Record Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champion Odds
Calhoun R 6, #1 11-0 68.74 47.58 3.78 883,397 802,671 594,937 503,906 0.98
Blessed Trinity R 4, #1 10-0-1 62.03 50.91 2.82 721,718 623,204 270,036 200,888 3.98
Cedar Grove R 4, #2 9-1-1 56.36 47.87 2.91 754,174 603,045 418,119 133,112 6.51
Jackson R 2, #1 9-2 49.52 46.98 2.53 751,756 492,396 237,739 47,809 19.92
Jefferson R 8, #2 10-1 54.33 53.36 1.57 278,282 208,008 54,040 31,563 30.68
Callaway R 5, #1 10-1 45.42 49.44 2.19 711,360 331,244 129,093 19,067 51.45
Westside (Macon) R 2, #4 8-3 46.33 49.22 2.19 811,533 248,828 112,919 17,896 54.88
Peach County R 2, #2 9-2 50.32 54.49 1.22 116,603 68,497 21,903 10,757 91.96
Spencer R 2, #3 8-3 46.50 51.64 2.10 897,615 165,920 25,169 10,147 97.55
Dodge County R 1, #1 11-0 46.95 52.32 1.69 573,709 82,396 23,385 9,665 102.46
Oconee County R 8, #1 9-2 43.32 49.53 1.44 245,826 131,919 57,162 7,147 138.92
Elbert County R 8, #3 9-2 45.81 54.53 1.49 426,291 46,436 10,457 4,055 245.63
Adairsville R 6, #2 10-1 40.27 49.88 1.38 248,244 101,347 26,525 2,579 386.68
Westminster (Atlanta) R 4, #3 7-4 38.23 50.43 1.38 288,640 75,014 16,059 1,313 760.83
Sonoraville R 6, #3 8-3 29.90 49.94 1.21 188,467 16,208 2,384 92 10,834.38
Dawson County R 7, #1 8-3 22.96 52.19 1.11 102,385 2,868 72 5 209,630.10

Class AA

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Seed Record Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champion Odds
Benedictine R 2, #1 11-0 67.52 46.41 3.85 942,622 745,162 670,140 488,060 1.05
Greater Atlanta Christian R 6, #1 10-1 61.69 46.38 3.46 936,195 663,185 583,317 276,548 2.62
Fitzgerald R 1, #2 10-1 57.39 50.89 2.38 882,674 235,346 174,511 89,650 10.15
Brooks County R 1, #1 9-2 53.67 48.06 2.58 935,716 323,038 247,674 77,063 11.98
Jefferson County R 3, #1 9-2 47.09 50.24 1.98 581,029 323,441 54,977 16,336 60.22
Rabun County R 8, #1 10-1 46.63 49.96 2.01 619,399 323,673 53,120 15,336 64.21
Macon County R 4, #1 9-2 42.57 47.74 2.47 894,731 480,457 84,238 12,450 79.32
Pace Academy R 6, #4 9-2 44.44 50.49 1.89 536,933 290,235 50,895 8,634 114.82
Wesleyan R 6, #3 9-2 45.65 52.17 1.65 418,971 199,557 24,702 6,699 148.27
Screven County R 3, #2 10-1 41.13 49.56 1.71 463,067 216,504 29,186 3,866 257.65
Early County R 1, #3 7-3-1 43.59 52.44 1.55 380,601 153,328 16,006 3,786 263.10
Lovett R 6, #2 6-5 41.36 54.69 1.08 57,378 12,541 4,674 946 1,055.59
Vidalia R 2, #2 8-3 36.66 53.22 1.08 63,805 10,701 3,744 347 2,880.72
Heard County R 5, #1 8-3 35.38 53.70 1.13 117,326 6,951 1,869 240 4,158.81
Manchester R 5, #2 8-3 28.72 52.79 1.07 64,284 3,076 609 28 35,264.52
Bowdon R 5, #3 6-5 23.00 50.01 1.12 105,269 12,804 336 9 108,383.76

Class A - Public

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Seed Record Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champion Odds
Clinch County 5 9-1 50.24 32.34 3.00 940,476 906,984 684,487 468,884 1.13
Irwin County 3 7-2-1 44.67 36.80 2.19 947,350 616,025 425,744 204,881 3.88
Emanuel County Institute 2 9-1 38.55 36.87 1.85 866,111 625,472 269,837 92,452 9.82
Turner County 6 8-2 42.32 40.26 1.40 778,682 330,081 211,483 78,774 11.69
Charlton County 8 7-2 41.75 40.70 1.42 762,240 444,492 143,055 67,016 13.92
Marion County 1 9-1 37.72 38.22 1.60 923,650 463,180 145,939 66,881 13.95
Lincoln County 7 9-1 32.40 39.99 0.98 667,078 242,609 55,968 10,911 90.65
Commerce 9 7-3 31.93 43.15 0.34 237,760 84,851 15,139 3,894 255.78
Trion 11 7-3 27.91 41.54 0.29 221,318 47,452 17,475 2,906 343.14
Mount Zion (Carroll) 10 7-3 23.62 39.44 0.44 332,922 87,677 13,627 1,666 599.19
Dooly County 12 7-3 20.81 39.60 0.11 59,524 40,139 5,945 810 1,233.63
Telfair County 15 5-5 21.71 40.62 0.18 133,889 44,242 4,853 432 2,315.28
Johnson County 13 6-4 16.48 39.01 0.66 619,399 35,899 3,682 314 3,181.08
Randolph-Clay 4 7-3 13.44 39.36 0.40 380,601 16,979 1,332 83 12,103.30
Wilkinson County 14 6-4 17.60 42.05 0.06 52,650 6,442 1,013 68 14,732.52
Twiggs County 16 4-6 14.62 42.34 0.08 76,350 7,477 421 28 35,877.01

Class A - Private

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Seed Record Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champion Odds
Prince Avenue Christian 1 10-0 63.14 37.68 3.39 986,849 955,157 766,305 682,943 0.46
Eagle's Landing Christian 4 7-3 52.96 45.79 2.10 941,420 804,774 211,009 146,837 5.81
Aquinas 3 9-1 47.37 41.22 2.50 945,215 795,537 628,213 135,759 6.37
Pinecrest Academy 2 9-1 34.00 44.05 1.45 847,871 453,425 141,269 10,818 91.44
Stratford Academy 10 7-3 33.05 44.30 1.04 595,801 339,390 100,537 8,373 118.43
Mount Paran Christian 5 9-1 38.40 50.06 1.06 862,238 171,858 16,395 6,348 156.53
Athens Academy 6 9-1 34.22 46.02 0.95 710,950 152,493 77,343 5,228 190.27
Calvary Day 7 9-1 31.00 46.40 0.62 404,199 176,332 35,711 1,819 548.85
Landmark Christian 9 7-3 31.50 50.73 0.51 483,506 20,591 2,845 703 1,421.87
Savannah Christian 8 8-2 30.33 50.68 0.54 516,494 19,966 2,520 575 1,739.38
Christian Heritage 11 5-5 23.39 45.66 0.34 289,050 36,557 10,912 354 2,822.64
Brookstone 14 6-4 20.72 46.79 0.07 54,785 15,412 3,385 74 13,446.77
Mount Pisgah Christian 13 6-4 23.36 50.78 0.07 58,580 15,335 488 74 13,516.99
Athens Christian 15 6-4 18.65 46.35 0.19 152,129 30,853 2,632 44 22,767.23
First Presbyterian 16 6-4 21.79 50.89 0.02 13,151 4,285 269 33 30,011.28
Pacelli 12 7-3 18.23 50.46 0.15 137,762 8,033 169 18 54,133.63

About the Author

Loren Maxwell

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