- Roswell takes over from Walton in the top spot in Class AAAAAA this week in spite of a bye week.  Yes, a portion of the change is due to Walton's lackluster 22-19 victory over Wheeler, but the biggest difference in Roswell's rating was actually Lowndes manhandling previously undefeated Newton by the score of 56-7.  As a reminder Roswell soundly defeated Lowndes 35-8 back in the season opener, so any games Lowndes plays in are connected to Roswell through the Extended Standings.

Let's look at this closer by removing all of the games from this past weekends except the Lowndes-Newton game.  If that had been the only game played, then Roswell's new xWin% would have been 94.4%, enough to push them into the top spot.

This highlights the mathematical rigor of the Extended Standings. Here Roswell has a great vested interest in their opponents doing well.  As a comparison, the region standings discard the Roswell-Lowndes and the Lowndes-Newton games altogether although they provide valuable information concerning how good the teams are relative to each other.

Games I'm Tracking:

I'm tempted to add the Roswell-Lowndes and Lowndes-Newton games to this list, but for now I'll just keep them in mind and perhaps add them later.

I'll let the other games I'm tracking rest this time since there isn't much I can demonstrate today that I haven't already explored over the last two weeks. It'll be interesting to revisit them later in the season, especially once we get a better feel how this season's Buford and McEachern teams turn out.

If you've found some interesting results by exploring the spreadsheet on your own, post them in the comments section for discussion. Or if you have any other games you’d like me to consider, by all means let me know!

Extended Standings

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

Extended Standings use the results of the season so far to project each team’s record if it were to play every other team, creating a set of "extended" standings between all 417 GHSA teams.

The spreadsheet used to calculate this week's Extended Standings is attached here: 2015 Extended Standings - Week 5.  Games can be added, edited, or deleted to see the impact on the Extended Standings.

Each team is shown below with it's overall rank, classification rank, seed, classification, actual record, adjusted winning percentage (adjW%), rating, extended wins and losses (xWin and xLoss), and extended winning percentage (xWin%).

Sum of the negative log-likelihood: 628.069330235

Solution converged in 1,263 iterations