The ideal situation for Falcons owner Arthur Blank might look something like this: Bill Belichick finds irresistible the opportunity to coach a team that hasn’t been to the playoffs since 2017, then the club signs quarterback Kirk Cousins in free agency and then Cousins leads the Falcons to Super Bowl glory in February 2025 in New Orleans.
Could it happen?
Sure.
And how likely a scenario is this?
Hmm …
A problem for the Falcons in Blank’s fifth coaching search is this. They have options for a head coach, but a successful future – either short term or long – also depends on finding the right quarterback, and that’s a more complicated situation.
Let’s start with the possibility that the Falcons hire Belichick, who interviewed for the job Monday. While Belichick brings some questions, namely a 29-38 record over the past four seasons, he has credentials that no one else on the planet can boast. Belichick would be here because Blank believes the Falcons can win a Super Bowl next season, or at least CEO Rich McKay strongly intimated as much last week when he said that, “We intend to win and compete at the highest levels in 2024.”
Compare that with Blank’s preseason news conference in August, when he said that 2023 was the third year of Smith and general manager Terry Fontenot’s three-year plan but wouldn’t even identify the playoffs as the goal. Blank would only say that “I expect us to certainly win more games than we’ve won in the last couple of years.” (So much for expectations.)
Going from saying you want to win more than seven games to saying you want to win at the highest levels is a sizable leap.
If Blank’s goals are that high, then a first-year head coach isn’t the answer, for better or worse. In NFL history, only five first-time head coaches have reached the Super Bowl in their first season. Moreover, only two of the five actually won the Super Bowl, and those two had Johnny Unitas and Joe Montana as their quarterbacks.
It’s a statistic that needs some context – one reason it hasn’t happened more is that a new head coach usually is taking over a team that wasn’t competitive the previous season – but it underscores the idea that winning a Super Bowl requires a coach with experience in the driver’s seat.
And if Blank is indeed locked in on competing at the highest level in 2024, the Falcons likely would pursue the Vikings’ Cousins, a four-time Pro Bowler and by far the best quarterback available in free agency.
Just like there’s not much history of postseason success for rookie head coaches, the same goes for rookie quarterbacks. By leading the Texans to a wild-card win Saturday, Houston’s C.J. Stroud became only the 11th rookie quarterback to win a playoff game in NFL history, according to Pro Football Network, none of whom have reached a Super Bowl.
Still, Belichick-Cousins could happen. There actually may not be many suitors for Cousins, and if the Vikings really wanted to re-sign him, you’d think they would have done so by now. With the No. 11 defense, a solid offensive line and talented skill players, maybe the Falcons could slide in Belichick and Cousins and make a run at the Super Bowl.
It’s understandable why Blank could be drawn to Belichick for that reason. (A small problem is that, according to the reporting of colleague D. Orlando Ledbetter, Belichick actually might not be that interested in the Falcons.)
However, if the Falcons were to hire Belichick, what would they do if the Vikings did re-sign Cousins or if Cousins decided to sign elsewhere?
Would the Falcons try to pry away Justin Fields from the Bears? Could Fields, who has a 10-28 career record, be entrusted to lead a team with Super Bowl aspirations? Could Belichick likewise be entrusted to develop him after a failed pairing with Mac Jones, his own young quarterback in New England?
The other concern is that Cousins will be 36 when next season starts and coming back from a torn Achilles tendon. It’s legitimate to wonder how much Cousins has left (a good question, also, for the 71-year-old Belichick) and how well he’ll recover from a major injury.
Further, if the Falcons don’t get the proven veteran either in free agency or in a trade, then they’d be in a situation of probably having to draft a quarterback early and pair him with a coach who probably isn’t in it for the long haul.
It would not be the ideal match for a team that has aspirations to win big and quickly. Moreover, holding the No. 8 pick in a draft where the top three picks are held by teams with needs at quarterback, they would either have to pay to move up or end up with a second-tier prospect. Top candidates Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye almost certainly will be long gone by the time the eighth pick rolls around.
The Falcons would be in position of either looking at the next tier of quarterbacks, such as Michael Penix or Bo Nix, or trying to trade up with a team that might be as hungry for a quarterback as they are.
And if the Falcons are in that spot, then the better coaching choice probably would have been to pair a rookie quarterback with a younger coach with a record of developing quarterbacks who is committed for the long term.
In short, there’s a lot riding on Belichick/Cousins, if in fact that’s the plan for the Falcons, first falling into place and then working.
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