Maxwell quarterfinal projections: Georgia’s top rated high school football games
These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.
The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5, and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.
Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team, and the median margin of victory for the favorite.
The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.
Georgia high school football
Photos from the championship games
Milton in Fulton County to finish No. 2 in six national high school football polls
The playoffs:
- Key details for each of the championship games played Dec. 16-18
- Grayson defense lowers the boom on Carrollton to claim 6A championship
- Calhoun shuts down Jefferson in Class 3A final to win first state title since 2017
- In Class 5A final, champion Milton tested, runner-up Hughes dignified
- Hebron Christian gets redemption over Prince Avenue Christian, claims 1st state title
- Carver-Columbus too much for Burke County in 52-14 rout
- North Oconee flips the script to beat No. 1 Marist for first state title
- Big-play Polke’s TD return sends Toombs to first state title
- ‘Relentless’ Bowdon’s 27-point run against Brooks County leads to three-peat state title
Full high school football coverage
The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or less and at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and thus the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated.
| Favorite | Projection | Underdog | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Game Rating | Class | Team | Pct | Median Scores | Median Margin | Team | Class |
| Fri, Nov 29 | 90.36 | AAAAA | Thomas County Central | 74.2% | 28 - 20 | 8 | Hughes | AAAAA |
| Fri, Nov 29 | 89.01 | AAAAAA | Buford | 88.3% | 29 - 12 | 17 | North Gwinnett | AAAAAA |
| Fri, Nov 29 | 88.71 | AAAAAA | Grayson | 60.3% | 21 - 18 | 3 | Collins Hill | AAAAAA |
| Fri, Nov 29 | 82.80 | AAAA | Eastside | 52.5% | 26 - 25 | 1 | Creekside | AAAA |
| Fri, Nov 29 | 81.51 | AAAAA | Milton | 94.1% | 36 - 14 | 22 | Houston County | AAAAA |
| Fri, Nov 29 | 80.47 | AAAA | North Oconee | 84.0% | 30 - 14 | 16 | Cartersville | AAAA |
| Fri, Nov 29 | 79.97 | AAAAA | Coffee | 74.6% | 24 - 14 | 10 | Sequoyah | AAAAA |
| Fri, Nov 29 | 78.15 | AAAA | Blessed Trinity | 77.8% | 26 - 14 | 12 | Benedictine | AAAA |
| Fri, Nov 29 | 77.96 | AAAA | Marist | 74.4% | 28 - 20 | 8 | Cambridge | AAAA |
| Fri, Nov 29 | 75.98 | AAAAA | Lee County | 97.4% | 42 - 14 | 28 | Sprayberry | AAAAA |
| Fri, Nov 29 | 70.92 | AAAAAA | Carrollton | 98.1% | 42 - 7 | 35 | Hillgrove | AAAAAA |
| Fri, Nov 29 | 70.46 | Smaller Private | Prince Avenue Christian | 76.9% | 31 - 21 | 10 | Calvary Day | Smaller Private |
| Fri, Nov 29 | 69.58 | AAAAAA | Douglas County | 94.8% | 33 - 6 | 27 | West Forsyth | AAAAAA |
| Fri, Nov 29 | 66.47 | AAA Public | Jefferson | 81.4% | 28 - 16 | 12 | Cherokee Bluff | AAA Public |
| Fri, Nov 29 | 66.14 | AAA Public | Peach County | 73.8% | 31 - 21 | 10 | Calhoun | AAA Public |
| Fri, Nov 29 | 65.63 | A Division I Public | Thomasville | 57.2% | 28 - 25 | 3 | Dublin | A Division I Public |
| Fri, Nov 29 | 64.51 | AA Public | Pierce County | 62.0% | 20 - 14 | 6 | Carver (Columbus) | AA Public |
| Fri, Nov 29 | 63.20 | A Division II | Lincoln County | 50.5% | 21 - 21 | 0 | Manchester | A Division II |
| Fri, Nov 29 | 58.82 | A Division I Public | Fannin County | 53.9% | 22 - 21 | 1 | Northeast | A Division I Public |
| Fri, Nov 29 | 58.80 | AA Public | Appling County | 66.9% | 26 - 20 | 6 | Stephens County | AA Public |
| Fri, Nov 29 | 58.47 | A Division I Public | Worth County | 53.0% | 24 - 22 | 2 | Fitzgerald | A Division I Public |
| Fri, Nov 29 | 57.29 | AA Public | Burke County | 63.3% | 28 - 24 | 4 | Thomson | AA Public |
| Fri, Nov 29 | 57.19 | AAA Public | LaGrange | 72.4% | 26 - 17 | 9 | North Hall | AAA Public |
| Fri, Nov 29 | 56.10 | AA Public | Morgan County | 56.7% | 27 - 23 | 4 | Rockmart | AA Public |
| Fri, Nov 29 | 55.76 | AAA Public | Stephenson | 72.4% | 27 - 17 | 10 | Southeast Bulloch | AAA Public |
| Fri, Nov 29 | 55.12 | Smaller Private | Fellowship Christian | 81.6% | 31 - 20 | 11 | Wesleyan | Smaller Private |
| Fri, Nov 29 | 52.76 | A Division II | Bowdon | 78.9% | 32 - 21 | 11 | Clinch County | A Division II |
| Fri, Nov 29 | 52.24 | A Division I Public | Toombs County | 95.0% | 37 - 13 | 24 | Elbert County | A Division I Public |
| Fri, Nov 29 | 51.35 | Smaller Private | Savannah Christian | 98.3% | 35 - 0 | 35 | North Cobb Christian | Smaller Private |
| Fri, Nov 29 | 50.77 | A Division II | Irwin County | 75.9% | 29 - 20 | 9 | Trion | A Division II |
| Fri, Nov 29 | 48.84 | Smaller Private | Hebron Christian | 96.2% | 35 - 6 | 29 | Aquinas | Smaller Private |
| Fri, Nov 29 | 45.85 | A Division II | Brooks County | 86.5% | 28 - 10 | 18 | Jenkins County | A Division II |
