LOS ANGELES — If TCU is going to pull off its miracle in the national championship game Monday night, the offense will need to dazzle. The Horned Frogs need to attack down the field as LSU and Ohio State did in Georgia’s past two contests.
TCU scored 51 points against Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl in a College Football Playoff semifinal, but for as formidable as the Wolverines defense was, it lacked Georgia’s top-end talent. This unit is unlike any TCU will have seen before, from its size to its speed to its ferocity.
“I think with Georgia, you’ve seen obviously coach (Kirby) Smart being a defensive guy and the talent that they have on that side of the ball and their coaching staff, it’s going to be a real challenge for us,” TCU quarterback Max Duggan said. “We know what they are as a team. They’ve been so great on defense and creating trouble and challenges for all offenses this year. We know it’s going to be hard, but we’re looking forward to it.”
Any Bulldogs observer has noted the team’s weakness in the past month. It can get burned down the field, as the past two contests showed. Georgia surrendered 71 points across its past eight quarters, allowing 900 passing yards in that time.
TCU is committed to the run. It produced 206.5 rushing yards per game, 20th in the country, and perhaps that helps prevent the Frogs from becoming one-dimensional against Georgia. But TCU won’t win the game Monday with methodical offense. It’s simply too difficult to consistently sustain drives against Georgia. But connecting on deep plays could give TCU a fighting chance.
That conversation begins with Quentin Johnston, Duggan’s top target who is a projected first-round NFL draft pick in April. Johnston had 163 yards against Michigan, and he’ll need a similar showing against Georgia. Johnston, perhaps TCU’s most talented individual, has 1,066 yards and six touchdowns this season.
“What’s great about him is not only his ability to get on top of the deep balls, but his ability to extend plays and get yards after catch,” Bulldogs co-defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann said. “On deep balls, we have to win our fair share and get him cut off, not let him get on top of us because he has great speed. Duggan does a great job putting the ball out there for him to run under it. Then on the intermediate and short throws, we have to get him on the ground and limit yards after the catch because he does a great job making (defenders) miss.”
The Frogs excel at producing yards after the catch. Their team speed clearly surprised Michigan, but it won’t sneak up on Georgia. It will be tougher for their screens to create big yardage given Georgia’s sideline-to-sideline speed. That’s another factor in how TCU will need to win: It needs air yards, lofting the ball up rather than trying to create at the line of scrimmage.
Duggan’s mobility plays an important role there. C.J. Stroud’s improvisational ability was considered a weakness, but he made creative plays against Georgia in the Peach Bowl. Duggan needs to do the same, dodging players such as Jalen Carter while buying time for receivers. TCU would benefit from mayhem, while Georgia wants to control the pace.
“The quarterback is a really good player, athletic,” Carter told The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “Obviously he likes to scramble. What stands out is how really one player doesn’t stand out, it’s how good they play together. They’re a very good team.”
TCU’s team-first approach seemed to help it throughout the year. It won six one-possession games to reach this point. Since the second week of October, TCU has defeated one opponent by more than 10 points. Its margin for error is much smaller than Georgia’s. Duggan was intercepted twice against Michigan, and such a result Monday could doom TCU against Georgia.
Duggan’s offense can hang around, statistically. The Frogs averaged 6.85 yards per play, ranked 11th in the country (Georgia was fourth at 7.09). TCU’s 474.1 yards per game ranked No. 13 overall, yet still behind the Bulldogs (494.9, eighth).
The formula for an upset: Hitting on deep strikes and getting some luck. If Georgia figures out its defensive breakdowns, and TCU doesn’t have a response, it’ll be tough for the Frogs to even keep it close. TCU’s offense is paramount to their hopes because if they pull it off, it probably won’t be a 17-13 game. It would be a shootout.
“Very explosive,” Georgia safety Christopher Smith said of TCU’s offense. “The first thing that stands out is the quarterback, Max Duggan. You could tell the team runs through him. They got great receivers, Johnston, (No.) 18 (Savion Williams), (No.) 11 (Derius Davis), No. 4 (Taye Barber). All those guys are tremendous athletes. They got a good running back core as well. They’re very good at what they do.”
They’re going to need to be great at it to win Monday.
