Since his arrival in Flowery Branch, Matt Ryan hasn’t just been regarded by as a franchise quarterback. He has been the franchise. Even as a rookie, his preferences mattered. If he didn’t like a particular play, the Falcons stopped running it. If he wasn’t crazy about a certain offensive lineman, that man probably wasn’t long for the roster.
Before Ryan took an NFL snap, the organization was looking out for him. Knowing he was reaching, general manager Thomas Dimitroff took Sam Baker with the 21st pick of the 2008 draft. But the GM also knew Ryan, the No. 3 pick, had to start as a rookie. Some semblance of a left tackle was required to keep the quarterback from becoming a canape for pass rushers.
Tony Gonzalez was imported in 2009 as Ryan’s third-down target. Heaven and earth were moved to land Julio Jones in 2011. That these moves bolstered an already-spiffy offense at the expense of a mediocre defense troubled the Falcons not one whit. The 2009 Saints won the Super Bowl with the NFL’s 25th-ranked defense; the 2011 Giants won with the 27th-ranked defense. If your quarterback is good enough, he can take you anywhere.
For seven seasons, the Falcons believed Ryan was good enough. (Certainly as good as Eli Manning, winner of two Super Bowls.) Today they’ve been given cause to doubt. Using certain basic statistics, Ryan’s 2015 season didn’t look much different from any other: He was fifth in passing yards, sixth in completion percentage, 13th in yards per pass; a year ago, he’d been fifth, seventh and 12th. Even his much-discussed interceptions only ticked up from 14 to 16. But basic numbers mislead.
ESPN has an index it calls Total Quarterback Rating, which it considers superior to the NFL’s passer rating. Per QBR, here’s where Ryan has ranked year by year — second in 2008, 14th in 2009, fourth in 2010, sixth in 2011 and 2012, seventh in 2013 and 2014. The one wobble was in his slightly difficult sophomore season, in which he also was hurt. Once past that, he been a bloomin’ metronome.
This season he ranked 15th in QBR. And if you’re saying, “You’re cherry-picking one weird stat to make him look bad,” be advised that he was 20th in passer rating after five consecutive seasons of finishing 12th or better. His performance in 2015 wasn’t that of a franchise quarterback. Even with Jones catching passes for 1,871 yards and Devonta Freeman rushing for 1,061 more, Ryan was just another guy, which is something he’d never been.
NFL quarterbacks tend to be like baseball beat writers: They burn out young or last a long time. There was no reason Ryan, at 30, should have had his worst NFL season. He made the rookie mistakes he hadn’t made as a rookie. The Falcons didn’t disclose any injury — then again, they hid Vic Beasley Jr.’s labrum — but something was amiss.
On 680 The Fan, Ryan suggested Monday that Kyle Shanahan’s offense might have been “too much.” Even this hint of dissatisfaction should have sent a tremor through the brick building at 4400 Falcon Parkway.
This same Ryan expressed no discomfort with Mike Mularkey or Dirk Koetter, his previous offensive coordinators. This same Ryan works so hard never to say anything of note that his press briefings are ongoing miracles of non-revelation. But the Falcons have invested so much in Ryan — $103.75 million, to be precise — that there can be no minor issues involving him. If he sneezes, the Birds as an organization catch the Avian flu.
As noted, Shanahan’s offense was seventh in yards but managed only 34 offensive touchdowns. Over the first seven seasons with Ryan as a quarterback, the Falcons averaged 40.7 touchdowns. The Falcons dropped from 61.4 percent in red-zone touchdown percentage in 2014, the final season under Koetter, to 54.7 in Year 1 under Shanahan. Bad luck or cause and effect?
Dan Quinn suggested Monday that the Falcons’ failure to score touchdowns was due mostly to turnovers, which tend to wax and wane. But if you’re in “win-now” mode — this from the man who owns the Falcons — can you take the chance that Ryan’s worst season as a pro in Shanahan’s first year as coordinator was coincidence? If this O.C. couldn’t maximize a quarterback from whom two others extracted better results, why try again?
The clock’s ticking. Jones turns 27 next month, and even the greatest wide receivers age fast. The strange decline of Matty Ice might have more to do with the man himself than the guy calling plays, but if that’s the case the Falcons might as well sack up the bats. Their only hope is to cross corporate fingers and try to make the quarterback happy. That has been the plan for nearly a decade, and it’s too late to turn back now.
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