1. Dan Quinn’s defense has to make the Year 2 leap
The Falcons were much better on defense in Quinn’s first year as a head coach than they were in Mike Smith’s last. That meant the unit went from among the worst in the league to merely below-average but that’s a major accomplishment, and a much better result than most first-year defensive gurus.
Sterling Xie of Football Outsiders examined (via ESPN Insider) the first-year impact of new head coaches from 1999 to 2014 with clearly offensive or defensive backgrounds. He found that the defensive Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) of first-year "defensive" head coaches improved by an average of just 1.4 percent. The Falcons improved by 8.8 percent, rising from ranked 32nd and last in the league to 22nd.
The good news for the Falcons: Xie’s study showed that, on average, the defensive DVOA of defensive-minded head coaches improved even more dramatically in Year 2. That’s probably because the head coach gets more personnel to fit his scheme and the holdovers further adapt.
Quinn says he expects this natural evolution to happen with his defense and there’s evidence to suggest it will. But …
2. They have to generate pass rush
In two of the past three Falcons offseasons, the coach (Smith and then Quinn) and the general manager (Thomas Dimitroff) have offered this basic narration:
The Falcons don’t get many sacks. They say it’s not just about sacks but also acknowledge that lack of pressure is a problem. The Falcons don’t add an edge rusher early in the draft or sign a top-tier rusher during free agency but the coaches insisted the pass rush would improve for some other reason.
Probably related: during the seven-year Smith/ Dimitroff era, the Falcons never ranked better than 20th in sack percentage (sacks per opponent pass play) and were better than 23rd in adjusted sack rate (accounts for down and distance) just once. In Quinn Year 1 they ranked last in sack percentage and last in adjusted sacks.
The Falcons did use the No. 8 overall pick on Vic Beasley in 2015, but he followed up a solid rookie season with a bad summer. Dwight Freeney still has something left and Adrian Clayborn, Grady Jarrett and Derrick Shelby can help. The Falcons desperately need them to collectively provide some pass rush.
3. Matt Ryan has to play better
Matt Ryan didn’t have a great year but neither did he play as badly as the popular narrative would have you believe. I believed it during the season and I came to believe it even more as evidence trickled through the off season via analytical studies.
At Football Outsiders, Carl Yoder studied the production of quarterbacks against pressure compared to no pressure in 2015 and found that Ryan acquitted himself well. Pro Football Focus concurred while noting that Ryan’s completion percentage under pressure (59 percent) was best in the league. These things do not suggest a quarterback who has lost his ability or nerve.
Also, Ryan’s offensive teammates frequently let him down. His wide receivers and running backs dropped too many passes (see below). There’s also the matter of what appeared to be Ryan’s discomfort running some aspects of Mike Shanahan’s offense.
Still, Ryan has to be better. That Yoder study concluded that Ryan ranked worse among his peers while facing no pressure than he did against pressure. Ryan’s four red-zone interceptions were unacceptable. So were the 12 fumbles (most his fault) and the bevy of pick-sixes over the past two seasons.
4. Matt Ryan’s receivers have to catch the ball
Strangely, hardly any of that vitriol directed at Ryan and Shanahan made its way to the group of wide receivers they had to work with. Somehow the receivers (and the running backs) got a pass even as they dropped pass after drive-killing pass.
According to Pro Football Focus’ video reviews, Ryan’s targets dropped 37 “catchable” passes in 2015, tied for fourth-most in the league. Cut that number to 19 and Ryan’s completion percentage rises from a pretty good 66.3 to very good 69.2 with more yards and more TDs.
Leonard Hankerson, the worst offender in 2015 with six drops in 46 targets, is gone. But most culprits return: Tevin Coleman had three drops out of five “catchable” balls, Devonta Freeman’s 8.75 percent drop rate ranked 42nd-best among running backs with at least 20 targets and Justin Hardy had three drops on 36 targets.
And the Falcons added Mohamed Sanu, who has struggled with drops over his career. According to Pro Football Focus, Sanu had 16 drops on the last 111 “catchable” passes thrown to him.
5. They somehow have to survive the first 10 weeks
The fortunes of NFL teams can fluctuate wildly from year to year. Rosters, coaching staffs and schedules change. Players get older, better, worse. Luck, injury or otherwise, plays a big role. It’s tough to say with certainly which teams will be good beyond the top few.
But according to the season win over/under totals, which are a mix of bookmaker savvy and public perception, the Falcons are facing a brutal schedule out of the gate. The over/under is 10.5 wins for the Panthers, Seahawks, and Packers, with the over getting short odds. The Broncos and Chiefs are at 9.5 wins.
And let’s say a couple of those teams are not as good as expected. Two other factors make the Falcons’ schedule tough, anyway: they don’t get a bye until after week 10, and six of those first 10 games are on the road including vs. the Broncos and Seahawks on back-to-back weeks.
The Falcons could be pretty good and still not go 5-5 during that stretch. If they can do that while winning two of three against division foes, they’d be in good shape.
About the Author
