JEFF SCHULTZ PREDICTION COLUMN
Hello and welcome back to the current center of the football universe, and just 20-some miles down the road from the Johnson Space Center and Mission Control.
The overlapping of the Super Bowl and the heartbeat of space exploration seems appropriate this week, since there’s actually a chance the Falcons may win a Super Bowl before the discovery of alien life-forms, and there was a time when nobody thought that was possible. Like, oh, yesterday.
Weekend Prediction(s) returns for one more special postseason appearance. You will recall that we accurately predicted the Falcons’ win over Green Bay two weeks ago.
The final line read: “Falcons cover the five. Let’s call it: Falcons 34, Packers 27.” Excuse me. I undershot on their expected level of dominance. It was 44-21.
So the Falcons play again, this time against the New England Patriots, who haven’t been punched in the face by commissioner Roger Goodell for several hours now, a franchise record.
The Patriots have one more Super Bowl win than the Falcons in the past 11 years (1-0). But they also have lost two more Super Bowls to Eli Manning than the Falcons in the same time period. Edge: Falcons. (I’m starting to find the value in analytics.)
The Patriots and Falcons have two of the NFL’s better offensive coordinators, Josh McDaniels and Kyle Shanahan. McDaniels made it through the week without a Curly Howard moment. But Shanahan had his backpack, including tablet and game plan, inadvertently picked up and taken from him by a 78-year-old sportswriter, Art Spander, who presumably wasn’t satisfied with just the free sandwiches for the media. Spander, actually a very nice man, lives in San Francisco. He has a lot of Super Bowl experience (this is his 40th). So maybe he was just testing the young kid Shanahan before he officially takes the 49ers job. Edge: McDaniels.
Similar to the Green Bay game, I believe the Falcons are a better team. They scored the most points in the NFL. The Patriots allowed the fewest. But their schedule suggests the numbers are skewed. The Falcons’ offense will be productive. The biggest question is whether their young defense will be dissected by Tom Brady, who has excelled at playing angry all season, imagining he is throwing every pass between Goodell’s eyes.
OK, time to make a pick. The line is 3. Take the points in this toss-up. And, what the hey, take the Falcons. I don’t see the Patriots keeping pace with the Falcons’ offense. It’s time for a new life-form among Super Bowl champions. Falcons win.
WILL THE FALCONS PRESSURE BRADY?
Even if you’re comfortable working on the premise that the Falcons are going to score substantial points in Sunday’s Super Bowl against the NFL’s top scoring defense, there’s still the problem of making sure the Patriots don’t put up even more. The No. 1 way to do that is to get to Tom Brady in a hurry.
New England allowed just 15.6 points per game over the regular season, yet the Patriots score a good bit themselves. Their clip of 27.6 points ranked No. 3, two spots behind the Falcons’ 33.8.
There are myriad metrics supporting the suggestion that Brady’s less effective against pressure, as are all quarterbacks. The most obvious examples in big games came when the Giants got after him mercilessly on the way to upsetting the Patriots in the Super Bowls after the 2007 and ’11 seasons.
He said, “it was like throwing through trees,” after one of those games.
In the AFC Championship game, the Steelers pressured Brady only 14 percent of the time, and he completed 76 percent of his passes for 384 yards and three touchdowns.
Brady generally unloads a pass about 2.3 seconds after it’s snapped.
“With Tom, he does such a great job of getting the ball out quickly,” Falcons defensive coordinator Richard Smith said.
The Patriots surrendered 24 sacks in the regular season, fifth-fewest in the NFL.
This vexing matter is not as simple as saying, “blitz more.” The Falcons did that in the NFC Championship game, and it was effective.
The problem is nobody in the NFL was better against the blitz this season than Brady, although the Falcons’ Matt Ryan was close. Their passer ratings against blitzes, according to Sportsradar, were 124.3 and 122.0, respectively.
Brady threw 14 touchdowns passes against blitzes and no interceptions.
Outside linebacker/defensive end Vic Beasley led the NFL with 15.5 regular-season sacks, although he hasn’t been a factor yet in the postseason. He’ll have his work cut out for him against New England right tackle Marcus Cannon, who garnered several All-Pro votes.
Plus, the Falcons often take Beasley out when the opposing offense deploys two wide receivers or fewer, something the Patriots have done nearly 50 percent of the time.
“He’s a good quarterback; he’s got good pocket presence,” Beasley said. “I think we’re pretty good up front. We’ve got to attack him in different ways.”
CAN THE PATRIOTS SLOW JULIO?
Perhaps the most interesting schematic window to look through is how New England coach Bill Belichick and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia will endeavor to corral Falcons All-Pro wide receiver Julio Jones.
Do they put their best cornerback, Super Bowl hero Malcolm Butler, on him all the time? Do they double him with another corner and a linebacker on drag routes and safety Devin McCourty on others? All the above?
Belichick is noted for trying to take an opposing offense’s top threat away.
“We’ve seen that in different situations throughout the year, where they’ll kind of try to double (Jones) and maybe put their top guy on Mohamed (Sanu) or Taylor (Gabriel) or one of those guys to see how they match up,” Ryan said. “That’s something that we’ve dealt with before, and however their plan shakes out, we’ll have answers for it.”
If Jones has a big game, it’ll probably be a good omen, yet the Falcons are 4-0 in games where he didn’t play or had less than 40 receiving yards.
WHO’LL RIP THE BALL OFF?
These teams only turned the ball over 11 times each in the regular season, tying for fewest in the NFL, as the Falcons lost four fumbles and threw seven interceptions, and the Patriots lost nine fumbles and threw a mere two picks.
A turnover, maybe even just one, could be huge.
“These are two really good teams that have high regard for the ball on offense and know how to go after it on defense,” said Falcons coach Dan Quinn. “So, they’re going to be tough to come by …
“But, it is going to be about the ball. We reminded the teams last night, teams are 9-0 in this postseason when they’re in the plus in the turnover margin. It’s a great stat, one that I love sharing with the team because it’s not offensive stat driven or defensive stat driven, it’s totally team related.”
WILL THE PATRIOTS FALL FOR PLAY-ACTION?
The Falcons ran play-action more than anybody in the NFL, as 27.6 percent of their pass attempts came after a fake handoff, according to Football Outsiders. Ryan averaged 11.3 yards per pass attempt on play-action, and 8.5 otherwise.
More than 42 percent of the Falcons’ play-action attempts came with Ryan faking a handoff on an outside-zone-run play, and Jones managed 470 of his 1,409 receiving yards on play-action.
New England faced play-action on 13 percent of drop-backs against, the second-lowest rate in the league. They allowed 8.0 yards per pass play against it, and 6.1 otherwise.
The success and frequency of the Falcons’ running game with Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman may well be the No. 1 predictor of the success rate of the play-action passing attack as the game wears on.
“I have my job cut out for me,” Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia said. “This is a great offense, very explosive and very dynamic. … (Freeman and Coleman) are both dangerous. … They’re both extremely good in the run game. They’re different, but they’re extremely good and productive, and they’re both very good in the passing game.”
WHO’LL WIN IN THE RED ZONE?
If the game comes down to the red-zone conversion rates of both teams, the Patriots enter with an advantage.
Both teams are good scoring in tight spaces, as the Patriots’ conversion rate of 63.33 percent ranks No. 8 in the NFL, and the Falcons’ mark of 61.9 percent ranks No. 9.
New England has been demonstrably better defending with its backs against the goal line.
They’ve allowed a conversion rate of 52.57 percent, ranking No. 8, while the Falcons ranked last in the league at 72.73 percent.
So, don’t let the Patriots get into the red zone.
That may come down to how effective the Falcons’ defense is on third downs in shortening drives. Again, those numbers favor New England as the Patriots’ third-down-conversion rate of 45.81 percent ranks No. 8 while the Falcons’ third-down defensive conversion against rate of 43.24 percent ranked No. 26.
The Patriots’ also had the No. 7 third-down conversion defense, at 36.89 percent allowed, against the Falcons’ 11th-ranked offensive conversion rate of 42.33 percent.
CAN THE FALCONS GET OUT EARLY, AND STAY AHEAD TO THE END?
The Falcons have scored a touchdown on their opening possession in eight consecutive games. The Patriots allowed only 16 points on game-opening drives, easily the fewest in the NFL.
It stands to reason that playing from the lead would be less stressful for the Falcons, who would better be able to balance their offensive play-calling that way.
“It has been important for us,” Ryan said. “We have done a great job, really, of starting fast and scoring points. … I think it speaks to (offensive coordinator) Kyle (Shanahan) doing a great job of putting together some early plays and plans for us.”
The Falcons will want to keep their foot on the gas, and stay ahead if they can. The Patriots have won 57 of their past 58 games when leading after three quarters.
Plus, in all four of Tom Brady’s Super Bowl wins, he’s led game-winning drives in the fourth quarter either for a field goal or a touchdown.
Ryan: “It comes down to guys just going out there and executing, trusting our plan, trusting our preparation and going out and playing well from the start.”
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