FLOWERY BRANCH — With five games to play in the regular season, the Falcons, barring an absolute collapse, will make their third playoff appearance over the past four seasons.
The Falcons (7-4) currently hold the sixth spot in the NFC, the last wild-card playoff berth. The defending NFC South champions likely will be favored in four of the last five games.
The Falcons also must manage “rookie quarterback row” over the next three games when they face Houston’s T.J. Yates, Carolina’s Cam Newton and Jacksonville’s Blaine Gabbert, before closing out with New Orleans’ Drew Brees and Tampa Bay’s faltering Josh Freeman.
If the Falcons finish 5-0, they have a 100-percent chance of making the playoffs, according to MakeNFLPlayoffs.com, which factors in strength of schedule, among other elements. If the Falcons go 4-1, they have a 99.9-percent chance. The percentage dips to 93.7 if they go 3-2.
A 1-4 or 0-5 record down the stretch would decrease their playoff hopes to 3.8 percent and zero.
“We always want to position ourselves to be a relevant team in November and December,” Falcons coach Mike Smith said. “The teams that have sustainability are the ones that are relevant in November and December. You get what you earn in this league each and every week. We’ve earned seven wins up to this point.
“We are now in Week 13 of the season and the games that we will be playing through the rest of the season will be very relevant for us as a football team and as an organization.”
Smith is not taking anything for granted.
While Houston is struggling with injuries at quarterback, he sees a formidable opponent. The Texans are 8-3 and in first place in the AFC South.
However, quarterbacks Matt Schaub (right foot) and Matt Leinart (broken left clavicle) are out for the season. Yates, who played at North Carolina and is from Marietta and Pope High School, finished Sunday’s game at Jacksonville. The Texans also recently signed Kellen Clemens after working out Jeff Garcia, Trent Edwards, Brodie Croyle and Chase Clement last week.
“Statistically, they are one of the top defenses in the league,” Smith said. “They are doing a great job. Wade Phillips, their new defensive coordinator, does a great job of putting together a scheme that is difficult to decipher as an offensive player and an offensive coach. So we are going to have a big challenge.”
The Texans, who are trying to make the playoffs for the first time since joining the league in 2002, have a formidable rushing attack. They used a 2-to-1 run-to-pass ratio with Yates playing the second half against Jacksonville.
Running backs Arian Foster (805) and Ben Tate (712) have rushed for a combined 1,517 yards and 10 touchdowns.
“It will be a great challenge for our defense,” Smith said. “Coach Gary Kubiak has spent a lot of time with coach [Mike] Shanahan and that zone-running scheme. They do an outstanding job up front.”
In their past two outings, the Falcons have built big leads and then nearly kicked them away before holding on for victories over Tennessee and Minnesota.
Houston is on another level. The Texans have the best record in the AFC along with Baltimore, New England and Pittsburgh.
“I do like the way that we responded when we had that adversity,” tight end Tony Gonzalez said. “We were able to make plays when we had to.”
Gonzalez was impressed by the goal-line stand against Minnesota and Christopher Owens running down Minnesota’s Percy Harvin on a kickoff return. Also, the offense responded with a touchdown drive after the Vikings cut the lead to three points.
“It’s important that guys make those plays when we are struck with adversity,” Gonzalez said. “It’s only going to help us against the really good teams that we are eventually going to go against.”
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