At first glance, the Panthers seem poised to kick dirt on the Falcons in the NFC South for the foreseeable future. Second and third looks don’t get much better.
The Panthers (15-1 in 2015) have Cam Newton, the league MVP, and he’s only 26. The Falcons (8-8 in 2015) have Matt Ryan, who just had his worst season since he was a neophyte, and he’ll be 31 soon.
The Panthers spanked the Falcons in Carolina in December. The Falcons upset the Panthers in the Dome two weeks later, but the Panthers brushed off the stumble to the Falcons and went on to win the NFC. The Falcons … well, you know what happened.
All of that would seem to indicate the Falcons are in no position to do anything about the Panthers winning their fourth consecutive NFC South title. But I think the Falcons will close a significant portion of that gap in 2016 because they will be better and the Panthers won’t be as good.
Don’t let the fade from 6-1 to 8-8 in obscure an undeniable fact about the 2015 Falcons: they were much better on defense in Dan Quinn’s first season. I expect the Falcons to improve from respectable to good on defense as Quinn gets another offseason to offload pieces that don’t fit and add more that do.
The only reason the Falcons weren’t much better in 2015 is because their offense, so reliable in the past, suddenly went flat. But I’m calling Ryan’s season an outlier: a mix of uncharacteristically inaccurate throws and poor decisions compounded by letdowns by his receivers and pass protection. I believe Ryan and coordinator Kyle Shanahan will rediscover the symbiosis that had the unit rolling early in 2015.
The Falcons still have an elite wide receiver (Julio Jones) and Pro Bowl running back (Devonta Freeman). The offensive line was not bad last season, considering the Falcons built it on the fly, and now Quinn will wave cash at free agents to shore its interior.
Those factors alone won’t be enough for the Falcons to close the gap with the Panthers. Math, time and the NFL’s structure will conspire to bring the Panthers back to the pack.
First, there are the numbers. The Panthers ranked sixth in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average in 2015 after they were 20th in 2014, and the defense improved from 15th to fifth. It’s statistically easier to improve from mediocre to very good than to go from very good to even better.
The passage of time will not be kind to the Panthers. It’s true that they have a lot of good, young defensive players, but they also had a lot of older players playing significant snaps in 2015. Four of Carolina’s 10 Pro Bowl players are 30 or older.
The Panthers cobbled together an effective pass rush without an elite end, and now Charles Johnson is turning 30 and Jared Allen (33) is washed up. Carolina’s middling wide receiver corps included 33-year old Jerricho Cotchery as the No. 2. There were a lot of old guys in the secondary, too.
Older guys tend to decline in production and spend more time on the injury list. The hope is that younger guys are ready to replace the old pros, but sometimes they have to play even if they aren’t. The NFL’s salary-cap squeeze often leaves teams little choice.
And so it goes with the Panthers, who have some key contributors among their 16 players eligible to become free agents next month. The best one is cornerback Josh Norman, who is poised to cash in after rejecting an extension offer before the season. The Panthers must decide to either give Norman a rich deal now or place the franchise tag on him and thus tie up cap space that will make it harder to keep some other key pieces.
The Panthers also have some big-money vets who likely won’t be back unless they take big pay cuts. They also have some good young players they’d like to sign to extensions. They have to do all of his while maintaining the mix that led to their second Super Bowl appearance.
Such conundrums are the inevitable byproduct of NFL success. Panthers GM Dave Gettleman recently admitted it all gives him a headache. It’s a good problem, but still a problem. Carolina’s losses could end up being the Falcons’ gains.
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