I’ve been saying the Falcons will make the playoffs since before training camp opened. A significant part of my reasoning includes the belief that offensive line coach Chris Morgan and his assistant Keith Carter can cobble together a group that can do an adequate job. That was a fairly big assumption because Morgan has never been the primary line coach for an NFL team and the Falcons weren’t bursting with talent in the group but it wasn’t unreasonable to believe it could be done.
And now? Well, now I admit to being a bit less sure about the offensive line. The Falcons have put together a group that has stud prospect Jake Matthews at left tackle and a bunch of spare parts everywhere else. We can assume Matthews will be better now that he's healthy, and it's possible right tackle Ryan Schraeder again can be (surprisingly) satisfactory. After that there's a lot of uncertainty.
But while looking for reasons to remain optimistic about my Falcons prediction, I remembered this: Matt Ryan can still be an effective passer behind a subpar line. According to Pro Football Focus, not many NFL quarterbacks were as good as Ryan at throwing under pressure in 2014.
Ryan was under pressure during 723 drop backs in 2014 and completed 57 percent of his pass attempts with an accuracy rate (completions plus drops) of 69.1 percent. The pressure completion percentage ranked fourth among starting QBs and the accuracy percentage ranked sixth. Ryan is not a plus athlete but he helps his cause by getting rid of the ball quickly (2.6 seconds average, eight-fastest) and not taking sacks (13.3 percent of pressures ended in sacks, tied for eight-lowest).
Overall, PFF graded Ryan as the ninth-best QB under pressure in 2014. The eight quarterbacks who were graded better tend to be better athletes than Ryan, have even quicker releases than him or both. Clearly, though, Ryan can make plays even when dealing with an effective pass rush.
You might be surprised to learn that PFF calculated that Ryan faced pressure on just 34.3 percent of his drop-backs in 2014, slightly more than the league average of 33.4. According to Football Outsiders, the Falcons line’s adjusted sack rate (adjusted for down, distance and opponent) of 5.8 percent in 2014 was a bit better than league average (6.6). The line really was not that bad last season in spite of being ravaged by injuries.
Now the Falcons will have three new starters along the offensive line, a new line coach and a new scheme. James Stone was subpar as the starter at center for most of 2014, so no harm in trying Mike Person there. Guards Justin Blalock (released) and Jon Asamoah (injured reserve) were solid last season but I think the Falcons can get decent production from Chris Chester and Andy Levitre.
It will be up to Morgan to help make the group cohesive and effective in the outside zone blocking scheme and with protecting Ryan. At least he's got a quarterback who can help the cause.
About the Author
