The College Football Playoff selection committee has some interesting decisions to make in compiling its second set of rankings this season.
The rankings will be revealed Tuesday night after the 13-member committee pores over these five questions, among others, in extensive meetings in Grapevine, Texas:
1. Will LSU move up to No. 1?
The playoff committee ranked Ohio State No. 1 and LSU No. 2 last week and could leave them in the same order after the Justin Fields-quarterbacked Buckeyes continued their season-long dominance with a 73-14 rout of Maryland. But “the committee’s job is to enter the room with a blank sheet of paper” each week, chairman Rob Mullens said last week.
And a compelling case can be made that Joe Burrow-quarterbacked LSU should top the rankings this week after Saturday's 46-41 win at Alabama. That added to LSU's best-in-the-nation resume that already included victories over Florida, Auburn and Texas.
2. How far will Alabama drop?
Ranked No. 3 last week, Alabama figures to slide a spot or two after allowing 559 yards of offense in the home loss to LSU. Even if Alabama is in the top four as the highest-ranked one-loss team this week, it'll be hard-pressed to stay there when the playoff field is set Dec. 8.
At that point, the selection committee will give weight to conference championships, and the Crimson Tide may not have a strong enough resume to overcome not reaching the SEC title game, which ’Bama can’t reach unless LSU loses twice in its next three games against Ole Miss, Arkansas and Texas A&M.
3. Will Georgia reach the top four?
The Bulldogs were the committee's highest ranked one-loss team last week at No. 6, and two teams above them lost. Whether that is enough to vault the Bulldogs into the top four this week depends on how far Alabama drops.
The case for Georgia ahead of Alabama: The Bulldogs have two wins — over Notre Dame and Florida — that are better than any win Alabama has this season, and the committee has been duly impressed with Georgia's defense. The case for Alabama ahead of Georgia: The Crimson Tide's loss to LSU isn't nearly as bad as Georgia's loss to South Carolina, which lost to Appalachian State one week after the Mountaineers lost to Georgia Southern.
ESPN analyst Kirk Herbstreit has Georgia as his No. 4 team this week but tweeted that the playoff committee “has their hands full” ranking teams 4-8. The Associated Press and coaches’ polls, which are not considered by the committee, have Georgia No. 5 this week (and Alabama No. 4). Wherever the committee ranks Georgia on Tuesday, the Bulldogs’ chances of reaching the playoff will hinge on winning their three remaining regular-season games and the SEC Championship game.
4. On second thought, where to rank Clemson?
The biggest surprise in the first playoff rankings of the season last week was that defending national champion Clemson was outside the top four at No. 5 despite its unbeaten record. The committee gets a quick chance to rectify that.
The Tigers are poised to move into the top four, likely to No. 3, after losses by the two teams that were ranked immediately ahead of them (Alabama and Penn State).
5. How will Minnesota’s upset of Penn State affect the rankings?
Both teams figure to move sharply in opposite directions, perhaps converging near the bottom of the top 10. The committee ranked Minnesota 17th last week, clearly skeptical of its unbeaten record against a weak schedule. But this week Minnesota should rank ahead of one-loss Penn State, last week’s No. 4 team, because of the Golden Gophers’ 31-26 home win Saturday over the Nittany Lions.
The playoff committee’s protocol for evaluating comparable teams calls for it to consider head-to-head results, schedule strength, outcomes against common opponents and, eventually, conference championships won.
