There will be a nerd factor as the Hawks play the Eastern Conference finals because the evolution of sports analysis and preparation has come to include such deep “analytics” that most NBA teams have hired people for that.
The Hawks are not among those teams, yet, but they pay attention not only to videotape when preparing, but to statistics about any number of things, such as how likely Player A is to shoot from the right corner when Player B is at point guard.
“(We) take that information and try to adjust it (into) what’s appropriate for the players,” Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer said.
At least 20 NBA teams have someone on their payroll with the word “analytic” in their title or job description.
Jon Nichols, whose title in Cleveland is “Director of Analytics,” as an undergraduate sports-management major at Michigan from 2005-09 built his own tracking system while a student manager for coach Tommy Amaker. He followed Amaker to Harvard, where while earning a master’s degree in information technology in 2009-10, he tracked the Crimson.
Some consider analytics a gaggle of numbers that merely recount what happened. Others believe a glimpse at data can tell a team what to expect from another and to deploy productive combinations of players.
Many consider analytics more valuable for building a roster than for game or series preparation.
Small forward DeMarre Carroll, who will chiefly defend LeBron James, is willing to listen.
“I’m going to watch film on how I guarded in the past, see what I can do better,” he said. “Energy and hard work will beat studying and any of that.
“I leave that to the coaches. Our coaching staff does a good job preparing us, but they don’t want us going home and worrying about that. We just listen to the scouting report and do it with maximum effort.”
Kyle Korver spends part of his offseason having specialists tell him how his left leg is performing relative to his right, how his steps might be wrong and more. Last summer he spent time with SenseLabs, a San Francisco startup that does brain mapping and mental coaching with the goal of managing his thoughts.
So, he’s open to analytics, which the Hawks generally leave to coaches, scouts, and front-office personnel.
“I don’t over-do it, but I think in a series you try to get as much information as you can,” he said. “I just … because I’m not the most athletic guy you try to use every advantage that you can get, especially later in my career.”
The Cavs are different than when the Hawks faced them during the season. All-Star power forward Kevin Love is out with injury, and Cleveland has integrated trade acquisitions Iman Shumpert, J.R. Smith and Timofey Mozgov.
So, should the Hawks over-gear to slow James from driving, or take their chances since he’s a proficient a passer and instead limit chances for other Cavs?
James is driving more than everyone in the NBA playoffs (13.9 times per game), and is second in scoring in those situations (11.00). When he doesn’t score on a drive, his teammates are averaging .49 points per his drive to his .79.
“Without giving too much away, do the best you can,” forward Paul Millsap said of the Hawks’ plan. “We try to guard everybody. The philosophy doesn’t change. We try to get stops.”
Here’s an analytic: The four teams remaining in the playoffs are Nos. 1 (Rockets), 2 (Cavs), 4 (Hawks) and 7 (Warriors) in 3-pointers attempted as part of their entire shot selection.
The Rockets eliminated the No. 3 team, the Clippers, when a bench assembled by general manager Daryl Morey, perhaps the most avowed analytics maven, outlasted a Los Angeles bench assembled by coach/GM Doc Rivers.
“There’s a place and a time for analytics,” Budenholzer said, “including preparing and getting ready for a series in strengths and things we want to emphasize.”
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