The Hawks will enter the NBA draft not knowing if they will have two, one or zero gaping holes on their roster.
It’s not an enviable position.
The draft is Thursday, and six days later comes the start of free agency. Two-fifths of the Hawks’ starting lineup — DeMarre Carroll and Paul Millsap — will hit the open market and are free to sign with any team. Both could be gone. One or the other could depart. Both could return.
Drafting for need is illogical. The prevailing alternative would be to draft the best available player. Not necessarily.
“We do our best to separate the draft from free agency,” assistant general manager Wes Wilcox said. “Certainly, they are connected. Our focus in every draft is to identify the best player who fits us. There is the long-standing debate over drafting the best player versus drafting for a position of need. It’s certainly something we all juggle. We’ve become comfortable with being guided by what we call our draft objective, which remains the same every year, we want to draft a guy who fits without our culture, fits (coach Mike Budenholzer) and his system and can add to and become a piece of our core.
“We do that regardless of position and focus more on the character traits and the skill more than anything else.”
Call it the Hawks Way.
The Hawks have three selections: a first-round pick at No. 15 and two second-round picks, at Nos. 50 and 59. They will have options and are preparing for the breadth of the draft. Trading up is a possibility, especially with two second-round picks and an extra one next year courtesy of the Nets. Trading back becomes an option if a favorite or one of the top 20 players they’ve identified falls. Trading picks for a current NBA player or international player is an option.
It’s beneficial to look at the Hawks’ roster. They have nine players under contract in Al Horford, Jeff Teague, Kyle Korver, Thabo Sefolosha, Mike Scott, Shelvin Mack, Kent Bazemore, Dennis Schroder and Mike Muscala. If Carroll and Millsap and restricted free agent Pero Antic are re-signed that brings the total of 12. Any one of Austin Daye (on a non-guaranteed contract) or last year second-round picks Edy Tavares or Lamar Patterson are in play for a spot. Add the first-round pick and the Hawks would have 14 players and a preferred open roster spot, essentially replacing Elton Brand and John Jenkins.
If Carroll and Millsap return, the Hawks will especially be in a position to bring a draftee along slowly.
“It’s a tough question because it goes to the fundamentals of the draft,” Wilcox said when asked if a player at No. 15 can help right away. “The next layer to this is we are trying to identify the best player over the duration of their career. We all deal with this — evaluating the 19-year-old with the 22-year-old. We call this, internally, the developmental arc — from your pre-prime of 19 to 25 and your prime of 25 to 30 or 32 and then your post-prime of 32 to the end of your career.
“Doing our best to line up the 19-year-old with the 22-year-old is a challenge. One of the good things about our team is if we draft someone at No. 15 we are likely in the position where we can focus on their development and put them in the program and give them the appropriate time to get acclimated to the NBA. If you draft an older player, they are probably closer. If you draft a younger player, they might not be as close.”
Nine players are considered the top of the draft class: Karl-Anthony Towns (Kentucky), Jahlil Okafor (Duke), Kristaps Porzingis (Latvia), D’Angelo Russell (Ohio State), Justise Winslow (Duke), Stanley Johnson (Arizona), Willie Cauley-Stein (Kentucky), Mario Hezonja (Croatia) and Emmanuel Mudiay (China). All likely will be gone by the 15th selection, although if one falls the Hawks could be aggressive and move up.
If the Hawks remain at 15, they will select from a field of the next-level players. These include Devin Booker (Kentucky), Sam Dekker (Wisconsin), Jerian Grant (Notre Dame), R.J. Hunter (Georgia State), Tyus Jones (Duke), Frank Kaminsky (Wisconsin), Trey Lyles (Kentucky), Kelly Oubre (Kansas), Bobby Portis (Arkansas), Myles Turner (Texas) and Deion Wright (Utah).
“You may end up with a 19-year-old where there is positional opportunity or a 22-year-old where there is not a positional opportunity,” Wilcox said. “That is where we believe in our development staff, our assistant coaches, to where we can continue to improve the player and give them a chance to be a good Hawk long-term.”
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