The Braves have arrived at that place where we can see what they’re doing but cannot know if it will work. (Neither can they.) When the Hawks — apologies for the mixture of apples and oranges — similarly tore down to build up more than a decade ago, this correspondent sang their praises at the start of the reconstruction, but a couple of years later, wondered when the winning would commence.
“You’re getting impatient,” Billy Knight told me. (Knight was the Hawks’ general manager and hadn’t yet stopped talking to reporters.)
“Maybe,” I conceded.
I've resolved not to do that with the Braves. Baseball rebuilds take longer — there are no Anthony Davises in baseball to effect instant change via the luck of the lottery, and even Davis hasn't yet made New Orleans a contender — and the Braves have worked with such ruthless dispatch that I've been all but awed.
Which isn’t to say that patience — mine or anyone’s — is an inexhaustible commodity. Just this week, a GM steeped in analytics resigned after three seasons that saw some of the most inspired tanking of any sport ever. In a 13-page letter, Sam Hinkie announced his departure from the Philadelphia 76ers, who were 47-196 over those three seasons but who seem poised for … well, something. From the Hinkie Manifesto:
“In the upcoming May draft lottery, we have what will likely be the best-ever odds to get the #1 overall pick (nearly 30%), a roughly 50/50 chance at a top-2 pick (the highest ever), and a roughly 50/50 chance at two top-5 picks, which would be the best lottery night haul ever. … If you were to estimate the value of those firsts and the ones to follow, we have essentially two NBA teams’ worth of first-round pick value plus the third-most second-round picks in the league.”
This is not unlike what the Braves have spent 18 months doing — selling assets to amass more assets. (The 76ers did not, however, make a commitment to young pitching. Young big men, yes.) But now Hinkie, who famously counseled fans to “trust the process” is gone, leading us to believe that someone inside the organization stopped trusting.
Before Friday’s game with the Cardinals, Braves general manager John Coppolella was asked if the abrupt departure of one teardown artist meant anything to him. “I think ‘Trust the Process’ came from Dayton Moore,” Coppolella said, speaking of the former Braves exec who oversaw the sometimes laborious but ultimately triumphant Royals rebirth. “The Houston Astros had T-shirts that said, ‘The Process.’ Those are teams that did what we want to do.”
The Braves took heart from the presence of the Royals and the Astros and the Pirates and the Mets and the Cubs in the 2015 playoffs — teams who were really bad but had gotten good. For the Braves, it’s still early days. Five of the eight starting position players on opening day were 30 or older. Down the road, that’s not what anyone has in mind. This is just to get through another big-league season while the Braves who matter work in Gwinnett and Mississippi and Rome.
Coppolella: “The worst thing you can do is put a timeline on anything. What we try to do is just get better in some way every day. … I’m a long-haul guy.”
Through three games, the big-league team has shown few signs of progress. (Not that big-league progress is the point just yet.) The Braves lost to St. Louis 7-4 on Friday after leading 4-0. They had no hits after the third inning. They yielded a record three pinch-hit homers. Through three games, the Braves ranked last in the majors in runs, batting average and slugging percentage.
Said Coppolella of the Braves’ version of The Process: “It’s like taking a shot — it hurts at the time, but it’s good for you.”
Here he laughed. “I want to be clear. I mean an injection. Not a shot of alcohol.”
