July could be a big month for the Braves. The current National League wild-card leaders play 17 of 27 games at home. Seven of eight series are against teams with records just above or below .500. The month also includes a three-game set at the Phillies, who lead by four games, a battle of the top two teams in the NL.
Here’s a look inside the schedule and the statistics of a key stretch for the Braves:
The opponents
The Braves host the Orioles (July 1-3), play home and away against the Rockies (July 4-7, 18-21), are at the Phillies (July 8-10), host the Nationals (July 15-17), are at the Reds (July 22-24) and home against the Pirates (July 25-28) and Marlins (July 29-31). The only four days off are for the All-Star break (July 11-13). Only the Phillies (.622), Reds (.512) and Pirates (.506, pending Thursday night game at the Blue Jays) are above .500.
Home sweet home
The Braves return to Turner Field, where they are 22-17 this season. In the past 19 seasons (not including strike-shortened 1994), the Braves made the playoffs only once with a sub-.500 home record (2001, 40-41). Every other season with a home record at least eight games over .500 has led to a postseason berth. In the four-year playoff drought that ended last season, the Braves were one game under .500 twice and five and seven games over .500 at home. In the 15 postseason berths since 1990, the Braves averaged a remarkable 22 games over .500 at home.
It’s the Fourth of July, where are you?
There is a saying in baseball that singles out division leaders July 4 as the teams most likely to finish there. There is some truth to the adage in the Braves’ case. In their past 15 postseason berths, via a division title or a wild card, the Braves led the division nine times on Independence Day. They were second four times, third once and fourth once.
Last season the Braves led the NL East on July 4, by two games over the Mets and five games over the eventual winning Phillies, and finished as the league’s wild card.
Their biggest comeback came in 2004 when the Braves were in fourth place on July 4, but won the division.
In the four-season playoff drought that preceded last season, the Braves were in second (2007), third (2009), fourth (2008) and fifth (2006) on July 4.
Hit or else
The Braves have been known for their potent pitching staffs. The same is true this season. However, their hitting in previous seasons has been overlooked. In the past 20 seasons, the Braves have finished in the top nine in batting average among National League teams 19 times and in the top six 14 times. Only in 1995, their World Series championship season, did the Braves finish closer to the bottom of the league — 13th with a .250 team average.
The Braves enter July with a .237 team average, 14th in the National League (26th in baseball). They are only five percentage points above the last-place Nationals in the NL. A strong month at the plate can only help the team that currently has the third-best record in baseball.
Heating with turn of calendar
While he already is on a tear, July has been a very good month for Brian McCann. In his five full seasons, the All-Star catcher has hit .303 with 27 home runs and 104 RBIs in July. That could be good news as McCann currently leads the Braves in hitting (.314), hits (83), home runs (14), RBIs (47), on-base percentage (.388), slugging percentage (.527) and on-base plus slugging percentage (.914).
Chipper Jones, who is battling a right knee injury, is a career .318 hitter in July with 79 home runs. Jason Heyward hit .356 in 15 July games last season as a rookie.
On the mend
The Braves got starter Tommy Hanson back from the disabled list this week. He threw six innings in a 5-4 win over the Mariners on Tuesday. Having Hanson, who leads the team in strikeouts, back will boost the pitching staff.
The Braves also hope to get Martin Prado back in July. An All-Star last season, Prado hit .307. He is disabled after a staph infection in his right calf and could return after the All-Star break.
