Right from the start of the 2016 season, a sort of institutional anemia had settled in early on the Braves’ offense.
The losing was bad. The deafening silence the team produced at the plate was simply unnerving. Home runs became collectors’ items; crooked numbers on its half of the scoreboard even rarer.
Opening day 2017 promises four different names on the lineup card from the one authored a year ago. In tandem with that sort of turnover comes the belief/fervent hope that these Braves at the bat might be one of the top 10 attractions at new SunTrust Park.
To put a collection of banjo hitters in that bright, shiny new house just wouldn’t seem right. After all, jug bands don’t play Carnegie Hall. This is no country for lightweights.
“I love our lineup.” That was Brian Snitker speaking, the Braves manager now, who was not the manager for those first 37 games of 2016 when the Braves bats made about as much noise as a Charlie Chaplin movie.
The current makeup of the everyday eight largely reflects changes made over the course of last season, changes that had immediate short-term impact. Last May, the Braves were hitting .230 as a team and struggling to score three runs per game. After Aug. 2, when Matt Kemp joined the middle of the lineup, and shortly before Dansby Swanson was elevated from the minors — prophetically going 2-for-4 in his Aug. 17 debut — that team average rose 50 points and scoring ticked upward by two runs per game.
(One shudders to think what historic depths this offense may have explored if not for the late-season surge. As it was, the Braves still finished last in the majors in home runs and slugging percentage, next to last in runs and 28th of 30 teams in total bases.)
The 2017 lineup as it stands on opening day is an eclectic group.
A recent FanGraphs position-by-position ranking of all 30 major league teams — taking offense and defense into consideration — was not impressed. It ranked the Braves 26th or worse at five positions — catcher, second base, third base and both corner outfield spots.
One of the corner outfielders was not impressed by such pessimism.
“Who knows what the upside is?” right fielder Nick Markakis said. “It’s going to be a fun lineup. We’ve got experience. We’ve got youth. We got it all in our lineup. We’re going to be a lineup that’s going to be a pain in the ass to a lot of pitchers. We’ll put the ball in play, we’re going to make things happen. We’re going to do anything we can to score as many runs as we can to win a ballgame.”
If the Braves enjoy any of the blessings of good health, they expect a good deal more stability throughout the lineup than in the recent past. Snitker’s predecessor, Fredi Gonzalez, was a man juggling cheap china, constantly moving around inferior pieces in an attempt to find an effective combination.
By the close of 2016, a calm came over the volatile lineup. Center fielder Ender Inciarte established himself as a reliable leadoff man, appearing there in 51 of the season’s final 53 games. Kemp put down roots behind Freddie Freeman in the cleanup spot, allowing Markakis, not the typical power-hitting cleanup guy, to settle in fifth in the order.
“We had so many moving parts at the beginning — every day it wasn’t the same lineup,” Freeman said. “When Matt came into the lineup, and Ender stayed healthy and Dansby came up, Snit could put the same lineup out there. There really is a comfort level to that. We started scoring runs. The excitement started, it was fun to come to the yard, things were going right and we started winning ballgames (20 of their last 30).
“Everybody in the clubhouse is excited. I know I am.”
By the end of the season, Braves hitting coach Kevin Seitzer was hearing some rave reviews from some encouraging sources, particularly about the Freeman-Kemp-Markakis meat part of the sandwich.
“(Marlins manager) Don Mattingly at the end of the year said it may be one of the best 3-4-5s in the game. The way those three were swinging it and how dangerous they were, it was a good middle of the order. I thought that was a huge compliment coming from a guy like that,” Seitzer said.
Naturally, there are a few important questions on the lineup to be answered once theory gives way to actual competition.
Which Inciarte comes to play this season? The one who struggled the first half of 2016 with a bum hamstring and hit only .227 with a .294 on-base percentage once he came off the disabled list? Or the one who finished hitting .341, with a .396 on-base percentage, the second half?
Just look at the back of his baseball card, suggests Braves GM John Coppolella. “He’s a .292 (career) hitter. We feel he can hit .300 any season,” he said.
Swanson has no such major league resume. He did hit .302 in 38 games — a span over which the Braves won 23 of those. The small sample size hinted at the kind of bat control needed to hit second in the order. How will the kid perform over the fullness of long major league season?
The Braves had a setback before the first stretch of spring, when newly acquired utility man Sean Rodriguez — expected to man second base until help bubbled up from the minors — was lost to injury following a January auto accident. What about the next guy they picked up on a discount from Cincinnati, a 35-year-old Atlanta native who hit .291 with 11 home runs last year? “Brandon Phillips does nothing but lengthen the lineup,” Snitker said.
How much offense can you expect from the catching position? Tyler Flowers is coming off career bests in batting average (.270) and slugging percentage (.420). Kurt Suzuki was an All-Star in Minnesota in 2014, but his batting numbers slipped the following two years. Power is not his thing: He has averaged but five home runs the past five seasons.
And what of Kemp at 32? His impact on the lineup — both his direct contribution and the protection he provided Freeman — was sizable last year. Was that an aberration or an omen at this stage of his career?
The most encouraging sign was the profile Kemp cut this spring — a noticeably leaner one that can only serve him well. “My goal is to stay healthy and stay on the field the whole year,” he said. “That’s always my main goal. If I stay on the field, good things happen.”
Then there is the overarching question: Will this lineup be more productive than its predecessor?
The answer seems direct enough: It could hardly help but be better.
BRAVES 2017 LINEUP
The project opening-day lineup for the Braves, and each player’s 2016 statistics:
Player, Pos.; Games; Batting avg.; Homers; RBIs; OPS
Ender Inciarte, CF; 131; .291; 3; 29; .732
Dansby Swanson, SS; 38; .302; 3; 17; .803
Freddie Freeman, 1B; 158; .302; 34; 91; .968
Matt Kemp, LF
San Diego; 100; .262; 23; 69; .774
Atlanta; 56; .280; 12; 39; .855
Nick Markakis, RF; 158; .269; 13; 89; .744
Brandon Phillips, 2B;141; .291; 11; 64; .736
Adonis Garcia, 3B; 134; .273; 14; 65; .717
Tyler Flowers, C; 83; .270; 8; 41; .777
Note: Brandon Phillips played last season for Cincinnati.
