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PHILADELPHIA — Hey there,
Yesterday was a bummer, huh? After months waiting for Braves baseball, we … had to wait some more.
But finally, the day is here!
The Braves play a baseball game – a real baseball game – today at Citizens Bank Park. Finally.
It has been long enough, right?
Yesterday, the Braves set their 26-man roster. There were no surprises. They selected Jesse Chavez to the major-league roster to fill the final bullpen spot.
Once again, Brian Snitker’s boys are loaded with talent and depth. This could be a third consecutive 100-win season.
To start this newsletter, here are thoughts on all 26 men on the roster:
Ronald Acuña Jr.
In 2024, Acuña will try to prove that last season can be a regular occurrence. And with his talent, it might not be a stretch to say he can match, or exceed, his 2023 feats.
There’s something that still stands out from last year.
Among players with at least 300 at-bats last season, Acuña ranked first in baseball with a 94.7 mph average exit velocity. Some context: Statcast defines a hard-hit ball as one that registers at 95 mph or above, so Acuña’s exit velocity was, um, pretty good.
But here’s the best part: Along with that, he cut his strikeout rate to 11.4%, down from 23.6%.
This is stating the obvious, but Acuña will be a force once again if he can keep the strikeouts down while punishing the ball.
Matt Olson
The question is this: Can Olson repeat last season?
It’s difficult to predict 54 homers from him again. That’s a high bar.
But there’s a reason to feel better than ever about Olson: Over the past year-plus, he’s worked on becoming more consistent. He’s tried to decrease slumps from a month to two weeks, from two weeks to a few games.
Some of this goes back to his work at Maven Baseball Lab in Atlanta, where Olson has gotten to quantify the parts of his swing and see how he moves.
Every player struggles. The best find their way out quickly.
It wouldn’t be shocking to see Olson finish in the top five of NL MVP voting for the second consecutive year.
Austin Riley
How good is Austin Riley?
Well, I remember asking Snitker about Riley during spring training last year. Snitker said Riley could be an annual MVP candidate.
“He has the capability of being in that conversation every year that he plays, just like the guy before him was,” Snitker said. “He’s that good and that consistent and that dedicated. He should be in that conversation every year.”
The Guy Before Him?
You might know his name: Chipper Jones.
In covering Snitker, I’ve learned he operates with a particular reverence for the organization’s Hall of Famers and the game’s greats. He often doesn’t compare them with anyone, and he certainly wouldn’t mention Chipper in the same breath as Riley if he didn’t mean it.
That tells you what you need to know about Riley, who is everything the Braves could want: Talented, hardworking, professional, kind and more.
Spencer Strider
If you’ve listened to our podcast, the Braves Report, you know I’ve predicted Strider to win the NL Cy Young Award this season.
It just feels like this is his time. His first two seasons were sensational, and now he’s added a curveball. Yes, that’s right: He might’ve already had the best stuff in baseball … and now he has a curveball.
Strider also is becoming a spokesman in the clubhouse. He is candid and insightful, and his words always mean something.
Braves fans are lucky he wears that uniform.
Ozzie Albies
Is Albies … underrated? I understand that he’s potentially overshadowed by his teammates, but it feels like outsiders don’t mention him enough.
There have been 17 times since 1995 that a second baseman has recorded at least 30 homers and 100 RBIs. Albies is responsible for two of those. (To get an accurate list, I searched for players who played second base in 80% of their games in a given season.)
On that list, only five players have done it twice: Albies, Chase Utley, Jeff Kent, Alfonso Soriano and Bret Boone.
Albies likely will go down as the best second baseman in Atlanta-era Braves history.
Max Fried
We have plenty of time this season to discuss Fried’s future, so let’s go another direction right now. Let’s appreciate how far he’s come.
This spring, Fried mentioned that he made the majors for the first time with an ERA above 6.00 in Double-A. At that time, he didn’t know how long he would pitch in the majors, or if he’d ever become a mainstay.
Yes, this is the same Max Fried who finished second in NL Cy Young voting after the 2022 season, the same Max Fried that started the World Series clincher in Houston.
It made me think about how baseball careers are not guaranteed, no matter how talented you are when you arrive. Fried was a first-round pick of the Padres, who traded him to the Braves.
You can look at him now, and say this: He’s lived up to the expectations, and perhaps exceeded them. He’s one of the best left-handed starters in a sport where not all top prospects pan out.
Michael Harris II
Harris seems primed for a massive season. In baseball, handling failure is key. And last season, Harris proved to himself that he could do that.
After an awful first couple of months, he turned it around and still finished as one of the top offensive center fielders. And, of course, there aren’t any doubts about his defense.
Last season – the way he worked through his slump, the way he continued fighting – became an example of the makeup that drew the Braves to Harris. He remained so level emotionally through it all.
Something to watch this year: How long will Harris bat sixth? He might outgrow that, even in a lineup full of studs.
Sean Murphy
Murphy is one of the better catchers in baseball. He could one day be the best.
So much of what catchers do goes unnoticed by many people. They work behind the scenes to plan for games, then they help guide pitchers through outings.
Murphy is quiet and reserved, which probably is why you don’t hear a ton about him. But when the Braves traded for him, Anthopoulos made it clear that the Braves put a lot on their catchers. It’s an important position for the team.
No matter what Murphy does with his bat, he’s a gem behind the plate.
Chris Sale
The key for the Braves is keeping Sale healthy. He can still deal – but only if he’s on the mound.
Luckily, the Braves have the rotation depth to keep Sale fresh. They need him in October.
Seeing how they do it will be the interesting part. Earlier this spring, Sale said he’d have no issues with any way the Braves wanted to handle his workload. He would be focused solely on pitching, he said.
This spring, Sale looked good. Really good. This could be another Anthopoulos steal out of left field. Or it could fall flat if Sale suffers any major injury.
There certainly was a lot of risk involved, but in Sale, the Braves get a quality starting pitcher who brings added fire into the clubhouse.
Marcell Ozuna
Ozuna seemed destined to become Alex Anthopoulos’ worst miss to this point in his tenure as Braves president of baseball operations and general manager.
Now, we can’t be so sure.
He launched 40 homers and drove in 100 runs last season. He’ll be the full-time designated hitter again this year.
There’s a chance that he goes even further toward justifying his large contract – which pays him $18 million this season before a club option for next year.
Jarred Kelenic
Give him some time.
Kelenic ended spring training with his first homer. He looked much better in the final week of camp.
The Braves have publicly stated their optimism for him. But this won’t be an overnight fix.
It seems Kelenic’s confidence took a hit because of the struggles early in his career. The Braves have looked to rebuild him in that way, and they’ve helped him make swing adjustments this spring.
The guess here is that Kelenic can at least match – if not exceed – what Eddie Rosario did at the plate.
Orlando Arcia
A team that sets its core with long-term extensions must build in some sort of cost control somewhere. In Arcia, the Braves have a bargain.
He’ll earn $2 million this season. For reference: David Fletcher will make $6 million in Triple-A, and Nicky Lopez, the Braves’ former utility infielder now with the White Sox, is due $4.3 million.
And Arcia, once a backup infielder for the Braves, was an All-Star last season. Arcia is a hard worker, and the team has helped maximize his talent. He’s a defensive stud whose bat adds something to a great lineup.
He’s a perfect fit for the Braves. And if it ever doesn’t work out with him over the next couple of seasons, then, well, $2 million isn’t a lot for a utility infielder.
For now, Arcia deserves respect for how he’s become an everyday shortstop again.
Travis d’Arnaud
When the Braves acquired Murphy, d’Arnaud called the new catcher immediately – despite that transaction meaning d’Arnaud wouldn’t receive the majority of the playing time.
This encapsulates d’Arnaud.
He’s a team guy. He wants only to win. He’ll mentor others and help them.
He’d probably make a great manager someday.
Raisel Iglesias
Bullpens can be funky. Guys have ups and downs.
The Braves are better because of Raisel Iglesias, who separates them from teams without defined closers. He is one of the top power relievers in the game, someone who could become extra important in an October run.
This is obvious, but you’d rather have a dominant closer than not have one. The Braves have a great bullpen, but they’re stronger because they know who’ll pitch the ninth.
A.J. Minter
A.J. Minter is the ultimate Brave. He’s seen it all, from 2017 to now. He is one of the spokesmen in the clubhouse, and he represents the organization well.
For all the talk about Fried’s contract year, there’s also this: Will Minter be a Brave past this season?
He fits the club. He’s an integral part of the clubhouse chemistry and the bullpen mix. And, oh yeah, he’s one of the better setup men in baseball.
Charlie Morton
Are you not amazed?
Is he actually going to do this again? Is he actually going to post a great season at age 40?
Morton had a nice spring. Like Sale, the Braves must keep him fresh. But he’s showing no signs of slowing, especially because his four-seam fastball and curveball play so well off one another.
Years from now, we’ll look back on how Morton continually reinvented himself. He has had a wonderful career, and it isn’t over yet.
Reynaldo López
Lopez, at this point, is probably a better reliever than starter. But that’s not what the Braves asked themselves.
They wondered how he fit best. And right now, it’s as a starting pitcher.
They stretched him out this spring, and it’s easier to start him now than to stretch him out again in the middle of the season. This way, he gives them innings as a fifth starter while they still have their depth waiting in the minors.
It seems likely Lopez would be a reliever in the postseason. If that happens, he can let it fly and blow it out for an inning in those games.
It’ll be interesting to see how Lopez’s velocity looks in the fifth inning, and how well his stuff plays after the first couple of frames.
And for those who don’t like Lopez as a fifth starter: The fifth starter isn’t supposed to be a frontline guy – otherwise he wouldn’t be the fifth starter – and Lopez is as good as it gets in that role.
Adam Duvall
The Braves basically have a great insurance policy for Kelenic. This isn’t saying Kelenic will fail, but if he does, Duvall can play every day.
Duvall can still produce at the plate. The big question: Can he stay healthy? Injuries have cut short his lpst two seasons.
I don’t think Anthopoulos signed Duvall because he was concerned about Kelenic. Anthopoulos, for one, said this was not the case. And two, the Braves likely acquired Kelenic knowing it would be a process for him to tap into his potential and upside.
But the Braves were smart. They bought themselves a great alternative in the case that Kelenic doesn’t pan out as soon as they hope.
Pierce Johnson
Johnson is one of the better examples of the Braves front office’s thinking. He didn’t pitch well in Colorado last season, but the Braves still targeted him at the deadline.
The Braves believed his stuff would play – especially once he left Coors Field. They were correct, and they re-signed him over the offseason.
This belief paid dividends for Johnson. Even though he’d had a shaky year before the trade, the Braves believed in him. That meant something. And it felt good to know that a contender wanted him.
Joe Jiménez
He could quietly be one of the Braves’ top relievers this year. He started slow last season, but that was because of his offseason back surgery. He needed time.
In 2023, he put together a terrific last few months. He wanted to stay in Atlanta, and the Braves made it happen.
Tyler Matzek
During his Tommy John surgery rehab, Matzek took time to ask tons of questions and learn all he could about the recovery. He then completed the lengthy process.
He first pitched this spring almost 16 months after his surgery. Thus far, the signs seem encouraging. It appears Matzek could sit at 93-95 mph consistently, and perhaps 94-96 mph.
Over 7-2/3 innings this spring, Matzek struck out 12 batters. He allowed only two earned runs.
Plus, his ailing back has healed, which will help the rest of his body remain healthy.
Aaron Bummer
Expected statistics are fun.
When the Braves traded for Bummer, fans saw he had a 6.79 ERA for the White Sox last season. There were some grumbles.
But his expected ERA, according to Baseball Savant, was 3.58. The expected batting average against him was .219.
Expected statistics take into account other factors, like the quality of contact versus a reliever. A quick look at them says Bummer might be due for a better season in 2024.
Bummer gets tons of ground balls, and the Braves’ infield defense could serve him well.
Dylan Lee
Lee has a terrific slider that, along with his fastball, could help him pitch multiple innings. Snitker probably won’t have to use him strictly as a matchup guy.
The Braves have four lefties in their bullpen, which means one or two will have to be flexible with their usage. They won’t all be matchup guys all the time.
And the further Lee gets away from the offseason shoulder surgery, the better he should be.
Luis Guillorme
Guillorme is a better player than most realize. He’s a good contact bat and can make some wizard-like plays defensively because of his quick hands.
His reflexes also were on display when he caught a bat flying toward the dugout.
Forrest Wall
The best stories often belong to guys like Wall, who grinded and grinded, year after year, before making his first opening-day roster. You have to feel great for him.
He deserved it because he had a great spring. He’s improved as a hitter while still being lightning fast in the field and on the bases.
In baseball, there are more Walls than Acuñas – more guys fighting for spots than superstars. We should appreciate the triumphs when they come.
Jesse Chavez
Will one of the more remarkable trends in baseball continue? Over the past few years, Chavez has completely transformed after putting on a Braves uniform.
Seriously. It’s wild.
Check this out: Including 2021, Chavez has a 2.14 ERA over 123⅓ innings while wearing a Braves uniform. But since the start of 2019, Chavez has a 6.97 ERA over 111⅓ innings while pitching for other clubs.
For Chavez, there’s something about Atlanta.
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Credit: Hyosub Shin/hshin@ajc.com
Credit: Hyosub Shin/hshin@ajc.com
EXTRA INNINGS
-The Braves are 1-4 in their past five opening-day games.
But in the regular season, Strider, their opening-day starter, is 8-0 with a 1.90 ERA over eight games – seven of them starts – versus the Phillies.
Something must give when Strider faces Zack Wheeler and the Phillies on Friday.
-Fans often complain about the built-in off day after opening day. This time, it was scheduled for Friday.
Well, we got a look at why MLB does it: Thursday’s rain forced the Phillies to postpone opening day. They announced the news Wednesday, and it was made easier because Friday was an off-day.
It’s not fun to wait another day, but the scheduling worked out in this case.
