This column is part of the AJC’s Braves newsletter. Get analysis from Braves reporter Justin Toscano every Friday – and top Braves headlines every other weekday – delivered to your email. Sign up here.
NORTH PORT, Fla. – Hey there,
At this point, you probably have March 28 circled on your calendar. Spring training officially marks baseball’s return, and it is fun, but it is not the regular season.
All focus turns toward Opening Day.
The Braves arrived in North Port ready to proclaim their “World Series or bust” expectations. In this way, the team and the outside world think the same: It would be a major disappointment if these Braves, with all their talent, do not hoist the trophy at season’s end.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution will have plenty of season preview coverage leading up to Opening Day. But for now, we’ll preview the team in one way.
Here’s what you need to know about the 2024 Braves:
Projected roster (this could change with any injuries or additions)
Starting rotation, in the projected order: Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Chris Sale, Charlie Morton, Reynaldo Lopez
Bullpen: Raisel Iglesias (closer), A.J. Minter, Pierce Johnson, Joe Jiménez, Aaron Bummer, Tyler Matzek, Dylan Lee, Jackson Stephens
Catchers: Sean Murphy, Travis d’Arnaud
Infielders: Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Orlando Arcia, Luis Guillorme
Outfielders: Ronald Acuña Jr., Michael Harris II, Jarred Kelenic, Adam Duvall, Forrest Wall
Designated hitter: Marcell Ozuna
Projected Opening Day lineup (subject to change)
RF Acuña
2B Albies
3B Riley
1B Olson
DH Ozuna
CF Harris II
C Murphy
SS Arcia
LF Kelenic
RHP Strider
Three questions
Can the Braves conquer the postseason?
The postseason, as we’ve seen, is unpredictable. The regular season’s best teams hardly have an advantage. But can the Braves find a way to flex their muscles in the postseason? Can they look like the team they’ve been during the last two regular seasons? They are building quite the run – with all their division titles – but what they do in October matters.
How close can Atlanta get to the historic offensive performance of 2023?
Up and down the lineup, the Braves have terrific hitters. A year ago, their lineup posted historic numbers. If the offense can come close to that in 2024, the Braves should win 100-plus games. The 2024 Braves might not exactly replicate last season’s totals, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see Atlanta have a relatively similar year offensively. The Braves are that good. Their lineup is full of studs – last season was no fluke.
How many starts will Chris Sale and Charlie Morton combine to make?
The Braves, if healthy, have perhaps the best one-two punch in baseball with Strider and Fried. Their rotation will be elite, though, if Chris Sale and Charlie Morton perform well. Sale has struggled to stay on the mound, and Morton is 40 years old. Can the Braves keep both healthy? If so, that’s a deadly top four that gives the Braves a chance to win almost nightly. If not, then, well, the Braves have Bryce Elder, AJ Smith-Shawver and others as depth.
Three bold predictions
The Braves will have three National League MVP candidates: Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson and Austin Riley will all finish in the top seven of National League MVP voting. It also wouldn’t be surprising to see Ozzie Albies’ name in there.
The Braves will have the NL Cy Young Award winner: Either Strider or Fried will win the NL Cy Young Award. You heard it here first.
Three players to watch
I don’t want to give you the stars, because you already know about them. Let’s go with some underrated picks.
Harris: You hear a lot about Acuña and Olson, Riley and Albies, Strider and Fried. But Harris could take a huge jump this season. He possesses all five tools. This will be his second full season in the majors.
Kelenic: The Braves targeted him and acquired him because they believed he had untapped potential. If their evaluation is correct, then their lineup will be even more dangerous.
Lopez: He’s a fascinating player. He’ll start in the rotation, but how long will he stay there? And if the Braves eventually decide to move him to the bullpen, that unit becomes much stronger because Lopez is one of the game’s better late-inning relievers. How good can he be in either role? It’ll be interesting to see how the Braves handle his workload.
Two telling quotes from camp
The Braves set the tone early. They made this much clear: They have high expectations for themselves.
There were two quotes that stood out early in camp:
“I think we need to get everyone coming into spring training like, ‘Hey, this is World Series or bust.’” Minter, Feb. 14
“I don’t think we should be afraid to say we want to win a World Series. There’s kind of this aura around it that it’s something that’s out of your control. All outcomes are out of your control, but we want to leave everything out there to guarantee ourselves the best opportunity, the best chance. When the season is over, regardless of how we finish, I want to be able to say, for myself and the rest of us, we did everything we could at that time to try and secure the outcome we want.”-Strider, Feb. 15
One key to success
Health: I know that sounds cliché, but I truly believe it. The Braves are so talented that only injuries will stop them. Even if certain players don’t perform up to their track records, Atlanta has the depth to cover it. The Braves are not reliant on three or four players, or one or two pitchers. They are an all-out barrage of talent and depth. If the Braves stay healthy, only they can stop themselves.
OK, it’s prediction time. I am naturally an optimist – how else would you want to live life? – but my job is to tell you what I actually think is going to happen.
Of course, I would like to be correct. But some predictions are difficult to nail. Isn’t that why this is so fun?
At first, it was difficult for me to see the Braves having a better regular season than 2023. After all, how could it be an improvement from last season? They set team and individual records on their way to 104 wins.
I’m not going to predict how deep the Braves will go in the postseason. So much goes into that. (I know, I know, that’s no fun.) But I will tell you this.
Ready?
Here goes:
Record prediction: 103-59
The Braves will win their seventh consecutive National League East title. They will go into the playoffs as one of baseball’s best teams – if not the best. From there, anything can happen.
Happy Opening Day!
Next time we talk, the Braves will have played a game that counts.
This column is part of the AJC’s Braves newsletter. Get analysis from Braves reporter Justin Toscano every Friday – and top Braves headlines every other weekday – delivered to your email. Sign up here.
