The Jolt: The numbers behind Republicans’ big wins in Georgia

News and analysis from the politics team at The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Gov. Brian Kemp speaks to supporters in Atlanta after being reelected on Nov. 8, 2022. (Jason Getz/AJC)

Credit: Jason Getz / Jason.Getz@ajc.com

Credit: Jason Getz / Jason.Getz@ajc.com

Gov. Brian Kemp speaks to supporters in Atlanta after being reelected on Nov. 8, 2022. (Jason Getz/AJC)

New turnout numbers released by the secretary of state’s office offer more details into why Republicans dominated just about every statewide race last Tuesday except the U.S. Senate race, now headed to a Dec. 6 cliffhanger.

An initial analysis from Emory University political scientist Bernard Fraga showed overall voter participation dropped in 2022, compared to 2018. One reason for the shortfall: Lower turnout among Black and Hispanic voters.

The numbers, broken down by race and ethnicity, showed that white voter turnout grew marginally from 2018, from 58.0% turnout to 58.4%. But Black participation rates dropped from 47.8% to 43.2%, while Hispanic turnout fell from 27.6% of registered voters to 25.1%.

Because Gov. Brian Kemp and Republicans’ core base voters increased their participation, while the usually reliable Black and Hispanic voters for Stacey Abrams and Democrats dropped in overall turnout, the numbers made winning a statewide Democratic majority just about impossible.

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LISTEN UP. The Friday edition of the Politically Georgia podcast is now in your feeds. We look at the legacy of the late House Speaker David Ralston, the new politics of abortion, and the fresh challenges that Herschel Walker and U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock both face getting voters back to the polls ahead of the Dec. 6 runoff.

Listen and subscribe at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, or Stitcher.

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NEVER MIND. The Atlanta Press Club announced Thursday that the runoff debate it had scheduled between U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock and GOP Senate nominee Herschel Walker has been canceled after neither candidate accepted the invitation.

“The Atlanta Press Club believes debating is an important part of any election as a way to help voters contrast where the candidates stand on issues important to them,” said Ken Foskett, Atlanta Press Club board chair. “We are disappointed neither candidate confirmed participation in the debate.”

The Press Club held a general election Senate debate, which only Warnock and Libertarian Chase Oliver attended, and Walker never responded to. Walker also never acknowledged the most recent runoff debate invitation, while Warnock sounded skeptical of spending the time required to attend a debate without anyone else on stage.

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BOOTS ON THE GROUND. We told you earlier this week that the Republican National Committee is sending 400 new paid staffers to Georgia to canvass for Herschel Walker ahead of the Dec. 6 runoff.

Now we know Democrats are plowing resources into their ground game, too.

U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock’s campaign announced Thursday that it has added about 300 paid staffers to its rolls, for a total of more than 900 focused on getting out the vote, above and beyond the operation they had ahead of last week’s election.

ABC News notes the expanded Warnock effort is in addition to the $7 million the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced it will spend on new field operations before the runoff.

And Planned Parenthood announced it will also make a “7-figure investment” into ads and voter contact ahead of the runoff.

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TODAY ON THE TRAIL:

  • Herschel Walker will hold a rally in Savannah with Florida’s U.S. Sen. Rick Scott.

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The GA2A group, formerly known as GeorgiaCarry.org, said it will push to lower the minimum age for a state weapons license from 21 to 18. (File photo)

Credit: File photo

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Credit: File photo

FIRED UP. With a second term for Gov. Brian Kemp and GOP control of the Legislature, emboldened gun rights advocates are pushing a new agenda to continue to loosen firearms restrictions in the state.

The GA2A group, formerly known as GeorgiaCarry.org, said it will now push to lower the minimum age for a state weapons license from 21 to 18, allow gun owners to carry weapons in churches without requiring churches and places of worship to “opt in,” and push to provide immunity from civil liability for property owners who have or allow firearms.

It’s not yet clear what Kemp, Lt. Gov.-elect Burt Jones and incoming House Speaker Jon Burns will prioritize, but conservatives are closely watching what steps — if any — they’ll take to expand gun rights even further.

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State Sen. Jason Anavitarte (R-Dallas - pictured above) and incoming state Rep. Rey Martinez plan to launch the Georgia Hispanic Caucus. (Alyssa Pointer/AJC)

Credit: Alyssa Pointer/AJC

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Credit: Alyssa Pointer/AJC

STARTUP. There’s a new caucus in town. State Sen. Jason Anavitarte and incoming state Rep. Rey Martinez announced they’ll launch the Georgia Hispanic Caucus when the General Assembly gavels into session in January.

Anavitarte, a Dallas Republican, became the first Latino elected to a leadership role in the General Assembly last week when he became GOP caucus chairman. Martinez, a Republican from Loganville, won his race to represent a Gwinnett-based seat.

The two Republicans say the group will be open to Democrats, too, and will be focused on serving the state’s roughly 1 million Hispanic residents. In all, there will be seven Latino members in the upcoming General Assembly, including four elected last week.

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GREENE’S 2ND ACT. After conservatives on the U.S. House Oversight Committee announced Thursday that they will launch an investigation into whether President Joe Biden and his family were involved in “shady business schemes,” U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene gave the idea her stamp of approval.

“I’m looking forward to working with my Republican colleagues on this,” she wrote on Twitter.

Greene and other conservatives also announced Thursday that they will introduce a resolution in hopes of forcing the Biden administration to detail U.S. military spending in Ukraine. And she wants to launch other investigations into “Hunter Biden’s laptop,” the U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan and the definitive origin of COVID-19.

The Rome Republican is expected to be newly empowered as her party takes control of the House. Not only will she be allowed to serve on committees for the first time — possibly the powerful Oversight panel — she also has aligned herself with GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy, the front-runner to become Speaker.

It all amounts to an even bigger platform and more influence for Greene in her second term in Congress, even as she remains one of its most polarizing members.

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Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., widely considered likely to be part of the new House Democratic leadership, brushed aside questions from reporters on Thursday, declaring it “the day to celebrate the extraordinary accomplishments of Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a leader for the ages.” (Al Drago/The New York Times)

Credit: Al Drago/New York Times

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Credit: Al Drago/New York Times

NEW ERA. With U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announcing Thursday that she will step away from her role in leadership, House Democrats are expected to usher in a new regime.

New York’s U.S. Rep. Hakeem Jeffries is the favorite to become the party’s new chief, putting him in position to become the first Black House Speaker if Democrats retake control in future years.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., is greeted by staff after she announced that she would step down from her leadership position, on Capitol Hill in Washington on Thursday, Nov. 17, 2022. (Erin Schaff/The New York Times)

Credit: Erin Schaff/The New York Times

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Credit: Erin Schaff/The New York Times

Among the reaction from Georgia lawmakers to Pelosi’s decision:

U.S. Rep. Hank Johnson: “History will recognize Nancy Pelosi as one of the most, if not the most, consequential Speakers of the House in the nation’s history. A bold, courageous, and compassionate leader, Speaker Pelosi has led Congress with grace, dignity, and extraordinary competence through some of the most perilous challenges our nation has ever faced.”

U.S. Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux: Speaker Pelosi “is a trailblazer for women in politics. She is an iconic leader who has paved the way for so many women to follow in her footsteps. Thank you for your decades of service.”

U.S. Rep. David Scott penned a tribute to Pelosi and her deputy, U.S. Rep. Steny Hoyer, who also is stepping down: “I thank them for their leadership and support of our agriculture industry.”

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President Joe Biden will meet with business leaders and deliver remarks on the economy today. (Tom Brenner/The New York Times)

Credit: Tom Brenner/The New York Times

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Credit: Tom Brenner/The New York Times

TODAY IN WASHINGTON:

  • All is quiet at the Capitol. The House and Senate are both done for the week and not due back until after the Thanksgiving holiday.
  • President Joe Biden will meet with business leaders and deliver remarks on the economy.

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Former U.S. Sen. Johnny Isakson, 76, died Dec. 19, 2021. The U.S. House on Thursday signed off on legislation to rename Atlanta area Veterans Affairs facilities after him and the late U.S. Sen. Max Cleland. (Curtis Compton/Atlanta Journal-Constitution/TNS)

Credit: Curtis Compton/AJC

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Credit: Curtis Compton/AJC

WORTH THE WAIT. Votes were delayed for two days, but the U.S. House on Thursday signed off on legislation Thursday renaming Atlanta area Veterans Affairs facilities after late U.S. Sens. Johnny Isakson and Max Cleland.

Cleland’s name will go on the Veterans Affairs Medical Center; Isakson’s name will be added to the Department of Veterans Affairs’ administrative offices on the same campus.

The Senate had already passed both bills, so they now head to President Joe Biden to sign into law. The entire Georgia delegation signed on as sponsors of both bills and voted “yes” on Thursday.

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The late Oscar Poole, owner of Col. Poole's Bar-B-Q in Ellijay, stands outside his Ellijay eatery in 2003. Poole died in 2020 at age 90. (AJC file photo)

Credit: AJC

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Credit: AJC

PIG OUT. The legendary Poole’s Bar-B-Q, which became an obligatory campaign stop for Republican politicians and office-seekers over the years, is closing next weekend. It was founded by the late Col. Oscar Poole, who turned his Ellijay eatery into a mainstay in the GOP world.

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AS ALWAYS, Jolt readers are some of our favorite tipsters. Send your best scoop, gossip and insider info to patricia.murphy@ajc.com, tia.mitchell@ajc.com and greg.bluestein@ajc.com.