Dreary, rainy and cold. Remember those words, you’re going to hear them a lot this winter.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued its winter forecast and metro Atlanta is looking generally cooler and wetter. Not more snow or ice necessarily, but a lot of days that are gray soakers.
The dour misery has a name: El Nino. The massive climate pattern will be dragging wet weather across the country, along with a bevy of clouds.
El Nino doesn’t generally mean more snow or ice, but forecasters say they can’t rule them out. El Nino may be a major driver of this winter’s weather, but it’s not the only one. Right now, it’s too far out to predict any other climate patterns, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
“You want to make sure your umbrella is good, and that you’ve cleaned out your gutters,” he said. “If you’re planning on getting a new roof, you might want to get it now.”
He added, “There will be a lot of dreary days when it’s cool and rainy.”
Every couple of years, El Nino forms when the Pacific Ocean warms up around the equator. The climate pattern will carry moisture across California, Texas and the Gulf states to our doorstep.
The southern part of metro Atlanta actually has a greater chance of seeing cooler temperatures. Atlanta and the northern metro areas might actually slide by without much impact, according to weather maps that show the boundaries of El Nino. But such distinctions can't be taken too literally when dealing with a global-scale climate phenomenon, said Channel 2 Action News Meteorologist Brad Nitz.
The NOAA prediction is general, so it doesn't identify what days Atlanta will see this weather or exactly how cold or rainy it will be.
Even though it’s likely to be both cooler and wetter in the South, it is usually so warm here that it needs a blast of Arctic air for snowstorms and that’s not looking likely, Halpert said.
The increased cloud cover helps ensure against snow and ice, said Jason Deese, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Peachtree City. During the day the cloud cover keeps temperatures down. But at night, it helps insulate the area and keeps the temperature from getting too cold.
“The clouds become like a blanket,” he said.
The cooler, wetter weather may extend into the spring, increasing the chance of severe weather. It’s hard to say whether that might mean more flooding, Halpert said.
“That depends on the character of each storm,” he said. “You might see some severe thunderstorms.”
This year’s is one of the strongest El Ninos on record. It mostly affects the United States in winter.
El Nino will create rain but not necessarily snow in much of the United States this winter, including parched California, forecasters said.
NOAA expects a cooler and wetter winter for the entire South. Forecasters see a milder, warmer winter north of the Mason-Dixon line and for all of California and Nevada. Northern tier states, the Ohio Valley states and Alaska should be dry.
Because this is an especially strong El Nino, NOAA is more confident than usual that its forecast is on target — 70 percent for a wet South, Halpert said.
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