U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan says not to worry that polls show most Americans don't support support the historic tax overhaul he and other Republicans pushed toward a final vote Tuesday. At this stage prior to the last major tax reform, in 1986, the Wisconsin Republican said, support was low, too.
Polls this month about the current tax reform show not only that support is low, but that opposition is high.
Three examples: Only 25 percent approved of the way Republicans "are handling" tax reform and 63 percent disapproved (Marist); 26 percent approved "of the Republican tax plan" and 55 percent disapproved (Quinnipiac); and, among those who said they were aware of the tax plan, 31 percent said they supported it and 49 percent were opposed (Reuters/Ipsos).
It’s difficult to pinpoint when the 1986 tax reform effort was at the same stage as the current effort. But mid- to late-1986 would be roughly the time frame.
According to a New York Times chronology, on July 17, 1986, “in a room overflowing with lobbyists from every conceivable commercial interest, 11 senators and 11 representatives (began) the conference to write the final version of the legislation.” The final version was approved by the House and Senate in late September 1986. Reagan signed the bill Oct. 22, 1986.
Polling experts told us they were surprised, after looking back, how relatively little polling was done about the 1986 tax reform at this stage in the process.
Ryan’s office cited one result from a September 1986 Gallup Poll: 18 percent said they thought their taxes would decrease under the plan.
But that question doesn’t tell everything about support or approval. More importantly, that poll was taken after the House-Senate conference committee had approved the 1986 bill. That step hadn’t yet occurred when Ryan made his statement about the current bill.
We found four polls taken before that stage in 1986, and two had results near Ryan’s 18 percent claim. ABC News/Washington Post polls conducted in June and September 1986 asked, “From what you have read or heard, do you favor or oppose this tax bill, or don’t you know enough about it to say?” Both times, 22 percent said they favored it and 15 percent opposed it.
So, with identical results in both polls, the 22 percent Favor, which is seven points higher than Oppose, is close to Ryan’s 18 percent claim — even though a strong majority didn’t choose either response.
The other two polls, however, showed much higher support for the bill than Ryan indicated — but also much higher opposition, as fewer respondents were on the fence: In a Gallup poll in June 1986, 38 percent of respondents favored that tax-reform proposal and 36 percent disapproved. In an August 1986 Gallup poll, 40 percent approved and 34 percent disapproved of the Reagan plan being proposed then.
The disapproval rates in polls on the current tax plan are much higher than those shown in the four 1986 polls. In that respect, the comparison Ryan draws is not entirely on point.
Our rating
Ryan said the 1986 tax reform approved under Reagan “was polling at about 18 percent right before they passed it.” Two national polls, taken at roughly the stage of where the current tax reform effort is, showed 22 percent favored the legislation. That’s close to Ryan’s 18 percent claim.
But two other polls showed approval of the bill at or near 40 percent, as more respondents were willing to choose Approve or Disapprove, rather than Don’t Know. Moreover, the disapproval rates in polls on the current tax reform are much higher than they were in the 1986 polls.
For a statement that is partially accurate, we rate Ryan's statement Half True.
The 1986 tax reform approved under Ronald Reagan “was polling at about 18 percent right before they passed it.”
— Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., on Wednesday, Dec. 13, 2017 in an interview
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