The metro Atlanta unemployment rate held steady in May at 4.5 percent, the same as in April, the state Labor Department reported Thursday.
While there weren’t a lot of layoffs, hiring was weaker than it usually is during the month.
The economy is not threatening recession; it just isn’t very robust, said Rajeev Dhawan, director of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University.
The surveys that show high consumer confidence are contradicted by consumer behavior, said Dhawan. “There’s a disconnect.”
Consumers are becoming pessimistic about getting a big tax cut soon, so the appetite for risk-taking by both consumer and business has been weak, he said. “Loan growth has been down and down.”
The longer-term trends are still positive. After seven years of job growth, the metro jobless rate has fallen back into the comfy zone of solid-economy, strong growth and near-shortages of labor. Growth and unemployment now are similar to that of the period before Dec. 2007, the month that the Great Recession began.
STORY AND SHORT VIDEO: What’s going on with unemployment and hiring in Georgia.
Since hitting bottom, the metro Atlanta economy has added about 500,000 jobs, and while the workforce has grown too, it has grown by less than that – which is pretty much the formula for cutting the unemployment rate.
Last week, the government reported that the state's jobless rate had declined to 4.9 percent.
STATE JOBS PICTURE, JOBS LOST IN APRIL IN GEORGIA
Wanna sound smart around the water cooler this morning? Here are six talking points that might help:
1. Talk about the short-term.
A year ago, the jobless rate for metro Atlanta was 4.7 percent. Seven years ago, it was 9.9 percent. So overall, there is a positive trajectory but the rate of improvement has slowed.
2. Talk about people getting hired.
In May, the metro economy added 4,600 jobs. That is expansion, for sure, and it’s a lot better than a loss. But that compares to an average of 15,000 during the previous five years.
3. Talk about longer term trends.
And yes, the longer trend has been positive: during the past year, the metro Atlanta economy has added 81,900 jobs. That is slightly slower than the growth of the previous year.
It is also most of the jobs added in the state of Georgia.
4. Talk about people who are not getting hired.
More than 137,000 people in metro Atlanta are counted as unemployed – that is, they are out of work and also looking for a job. That is more than at the start of the recession, but compare it to seven years ago when the region started the year with 295,009 unemployed. (See point number three, above, regarding long-term trends.)
On the other hand, roughly 30 percent of the jobless have been looking for more than six months.
5. Talk about how the glass is half full.
According to the Labor Department, there were two sectors that grew solidly.
Leisure and hospitality, sometimes a signal about consumer spending, had a weak start to the year. But in May, it added 4,400 jobs. Second-best was construction, which added 1,700 jobs.
After that, things got modest in a hurry.
Information added 800 jobs. Education and health was up 700 jobs. The corporate sector, known as professional and business services, was up just 100 jobs.
6. Talk about how the glass is half empty.
The service sector fell by 1,200 jobs. Manufacturing dropped 900 jobs. The logistics and retail sector fell by 300 positions. Government shed 700 jobs. And financial didn’t move the needle at all.
MEN'S WAGES STAGNANT, YOUNG MEN HIT HARD
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Metro Atlanta, Unemployment rate, May
Year May
2007 4.1 percent
2008 5.6 percent
2009 9.5 percent
2010 9.9 percent
2011 9.7 percent
2012 8.7 percent
2013 7.8 percent
2014 6.9 percent
2015 5.9 percent
2016 4.7 percent
2017 4.5 percent
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Metro Atlanta, job change, May
2007 11,600
2008 7,500
2009 -2,600
2010 18,300
2011 8,500
2012 13,100
2013 9,600
2014 19,600
2015 20,700
2016 12,000
2017 4,600
... Average May, 2012-16: 15,000 jobs
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Georgia Department of Labor
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AJC Business reporter Michael E. Kanell keeps you updated on the latest news about jobs, housing and consumer issues in metro Atlanta and beyond. You'll find more on myAJC.com, including these stories:
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