For the second time this silly winter, we’re Ice Station A-town. The only recourse is to stay home, think warm thoughts and note that, for the under-new-management Atlanta Braves, spring training commences in 27 days.
After the constant motion of the past three offseasons, this one – apart from the thunderclap of MLB sanctions – has been a snooze. In two months and four days on the job, general manager Alex Anthopoulos has made big news only by dispatching the too-big Matt Kemp and his weighty contract in one of those mutual salary dumps that John Coppolella, his banned-for-life predecessor, practically invented.
Jim Johnson was shipped out. Adonis Garcia was released. Matt Adams and Jace Peterson became free agents. And that’s it – the Braves under AA, as he’s known in the industry, have added no player apt to change the face of the franchise, unless you count Brandon McCarthy and/or Scott Kazmir, about whom more later. That doesn’t, however, mean that the roster we see today will be the same come Feb. 13 in Lake Buena Vista.
The first 2 1/2 months of the so-called Hot Stove League have been so tepid as to induce chilblains. The Yankees got Giancarlo Stanton. The Cardinals got Marcell Ozuna. (It's another Marlins selloff!) The Astros got Gerrit Cole from the Pirates, who also traded Andrew McCutchen. Of Tim Dierkes' MLB Trade Rumors ranking of the top 10 potential free agents, only two are under contract – Wade Davis with the Rockies and Masihiro Tanaka, who opted not to opt out of his Yankees deal.
Such stasis won’t exist much longer. Yu Darvish will sign with somebody. The Royals’ big three – Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain and Mike Moustakas – will find jobs. Anthopolous will make a move that isn’t a subtraction. Toward that end, here’s what we might expect these next few weeks.
Expect AA to make a significant trade. He made several in Toronto. Landing R.A. Dickey for Noah Syndergaard and Travis d'Arnaud didn't pan out. Landing Josh Donaldson from the A's made the Blue Jays a playoff team. It made sense for the new guy to take a while to assess his inheritance, but it's team-building time. The Braves have been linked with Christian Yelich – yet another gifted Miami outfielder – and that's a move worth making. Yelich is 26. He's under contract through 2022. An outfield of him, Ender Inciarte and Ronald Acuna would be something to see. And the Braves have what a team in sell-off mode always wants, meaning …
Expect AA to trade a big-name prospect (or two). He wasn't afraid to shed Syndergaard, was he? Beyond that, there's this: GMs are always less enthralled by what they inherit than with what they acquire. The bulk of Coppolella's trades for prospects were made with teams run by new GMs – A.J. Preller in San Diego, Jerry Dipoto in Seattle, most notably Dave Stewart in Arizona. There's no chance Anthopoulos trades Acuna, but he might be willing to sacrifice one/two of those many young arms if there's a Yelich on the other end.
Don't expect AA to pursue a big-ticket pitcher. Teams always overpay for free agents, and the biggest overpays are starting pitchers. The Braves have been mentioned as a suitor for Jake Arrieta, who won the Cy Young in 2015. By the 2017 postseason, he'd been reduced to starting Game 4 in both Cubs series. He's not a No. 1 starter anymore, but to land him – this estimate from Dierkes – would run $100 million over four seasons. Also: Arrieta is represented by Scott Boras.
Do expect AA to be creative with his rotation. He spent the past two seasons with the Dodgers. Last spring, his then-boss Andrew Friedman told Jim Bowden of ESPN that, apart from the few true No. 1s, quantity of starting pitching is more important than quality. Sure enough, the Dodgers used 11 starters last season and made so much use of the new 10-day disabled list that writer Joe Sheehan labeled it a "Dodger Vacation." It would be no shock if Anthopolous similarly shotguns his young arms. (Speaking of which: MLB Pipeline just listed its top 10 left-handed prospects. Three are Braves: No. 4 Luiz Gohara, No. 7 Kolby Allard and No. 10 Max Fried.)
Don't expect AA to throw massive money at Moustakas. The Braves have long been mentioned as a landing spot, seeing as how they have a vacancy at third base. They also have three youngish options – Johan Camargo and Rio Ruiz in the short term, Austin Riley a bit later. With Riley almost at the ready, it wouldn't make sense to pay Moustakas – here's another Dierkes estimate -- $85 million over five seasons.
Do expect AA to add relievers. In an era where starters are working fewer and fewer innings, relief arms are always needed and, in most cases, relatively cheap. Bullpens are a volume entity. The more choices you have, the better your odds. Off-loading Johnson saved some money; it also left the Braves a man down.
Do expect AA to get mileage from the Kemp deal. Adrian Gonzalez was released the day he was acquired. Charlie Culberson is a utility guy. Kazmir and McCarthy are intriguing. Both are in their early 30s. Both have had problems staying healthy. (Kazmir didn't pitch in the majors last season; McCarthy has worked 33 games over the past three years.) If the Braves can turn two ex-Dodgers into one serviceable starter, it would lessen the load on Gohara, Fried and Sean Newcomb, and it might free Mike Foltynewicz for long-speculated relief duty.
Don't expect AA to trade Nick Markakis -- yet. We don't know if Acuna will be an opening-day starter. (My guess: He will.) Even if he is, there's still a spot for Markakis. This would change if Yelich arrives. Which he might.
About the Author
