From Jacksonville, Florida -
While the fight for control of the U.S. Senate has garnered most of the attention in recent months, there may actually be more races for Governor that could go to either party in the rush to Election Day, as the GOP tries to hold on to its 29-21 edge in statehouses nationwide.
Democrats already are pretty much assured of winning back the Governor's chair in one state, as Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett (R) seems headed for a total drubbing by Tom Wolf (D). Some polls have Wolf ahead by over 20 points, which if true, would raise questions about Democrats winning extra races down the ballot in the Keystone State.
Already one Governor has been defeated for re-election this year, as Gov. Neil Abercrombie of Hawaii lost his Democratic primary race by a wide margin to fellow Democrat David Ige; Ige has a narrow lead in recent polling there for November.
Maybe the most high profile contest for Governor is here in Florida, where the race is oddly between the last two Governors of the Sunshine State - current Gov. Rick Scott (R) and former Gov. Charlie Crist.
Crist was a Republican when he was Governor, then he became an Independent, but he's now running as a Democrat. In recent weeks, he's had other Democratic Governors venture down to Florida to help his cause, as recent polls show anything from Gov. Scott holding on to a short lead to a slight edge for Crist.
"I am absolutely thrilled to join Charlie Crist in Florida," said Gov. Martin O'Malley of Maryland on Sunday, who not only is helping fellow Democrats, but also making it clear he wants to run for President in 2016 (Hillary Clinton will reportedly be campaigning for Crist in coming weeks as well.)
O'Malley not only was on the ground in the Fort Lauderdale area, but also sent out a fundraising email for Crist this week, imploring Democrats to chip in money to deal with "Rick Scott's $100 million war chest."
Scott on Monday was doing some retail politicking by phone from one of his Florida campaign offices:
Along with Florida, some political experts have up to a dozen races for Governor in the 'toss-up' category - let's take a quick look at some of them, six weeks out:
Florida - This race pits the media savvy Charlie Crist (D) against the somewhat wooden Gov. Rick Scott (R), a fact Scott likes to talk about on the stump. A few months ago, Crist looked to have momentum, but Scott has held a short lead in the polls. Will this be like a horse race where Scott just hangs on in the final strides, or can Crist find another burst? Democrats would love to win here in the Sunshine State.
Georgia - Democrats keep saying they are going to turn the Peach State purple and win this race against Gov. Nathan Deal (R); their candidate is Jason Carter, who happens to be a grandson of former President Jimmy Carter. As in Florida, Deal has held a short lead in most polls, though last week's report that Georgia had the worst unemployment rate of any state was not what the GOP wanted to hear. It may not matter, because if neither candidate gets 50%, there will be a runoff on the first Saturday in December.
Colorado - Most of the focus has been on the U.S. Senate race in Colorado, but recent polls have raised questions about Gov. John Hickenlooper (D), who is running against ex-Rep. Bob Beauprez. Hickenlooper, a former mayor of Denver, was thought to be in a good position, but this has become more of a grind than Democrats had anticipated. Is it just Hickenlooper, or a sign that Democrats are running uphill in a number of states?
Wisconsin - Democrats would absolutely love to knock off Gov. Scott Walker (R) in the Badger State, but like other GOP Governors in Florida and Georgia, Walker has maintained a short lead in the polls against Democrat Mary Burke. Many in DC are watching this race closely, believing that if Walker wins re-election, he may then try to run for President in 2016 - but a loss would knock him out of that conversation entirely.
Michigan - Another Governor that is struggling in a re-election bid is Republican Rick Snyder of Michigan; recent polls have shown either a dead heat or Snyder barely ahead over Democrat Mark Schauer. The race has been overshadowed by the U.S. Senate race in the Wolverine State. One problem for Snyder is that some Tea Party groups don't think he has been conservative enough for their tastes - if they sit out the election, that could be enough for the Democrats to re-take this seat in Lansing.
Connecticut - What may be the most Democratic state in the nation has a close Governor's race? Actually, Gov. Dannel Malloy (D) won four years ago by about a half-percentage point, and polls this year show him struggling in a rematch with Republican Tom Foley, a former U.S. Ambassador to Ireland. A poll from home state Quinnipiac University earlier this month showed Gov. Malloy behind by 6 points.
Kansas - One of the most Republican states in the nation has a close Governor's race? That is in Kansas, where Gov. Sam Brownback (R) has trailed Democrat Paul Davis in recent polls. Four years ago, Brownback won by 30 points, and only lost two of the 105 counties in the Sunflower State. But Brownback's more conservative politics have alienated GOP voters along the way, as Democrats hope to win this race and knock off veteran Sen. Pat Roberts (R-KS).
Illinois - Another incumbent in trouble is Gov. Pat Quinn (D) of Illinois, who finds himself trailing in many polls to Republican Bruce Rauner, who has tried to tie Quinn to ex-Gov. Rod Blagojevich, who went to prison in 2009. With Rauner ready to spend big money on ads, the Land of Lincoln may be awash in negative ads over this race at the top of the ticket on Election Day.
That isn't a full review by any means - but just a cursory glance at the tight races listed here shows that incumbents are in trouble - in both parties.
Six weeks to go until Election Day.
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