Paine’s conclusion: “(I)n part because of an easy schedule, our Elo-based simulations call for the Falcons to win 8.1 of their remaining 13 games, fifth-best in the league. According to Elo, Atlanta has a 77 percent chance of completing its comeback journey and returning to the playoffs.”
Paine adds: "One quibble with Elo, though, is that it only uses final game scores to measure a team's performance; as such, it doesn't know how Atlanta has been winning. It's blind to those fourth-quarter comebacks. Because clutch play isn't a particularly consistent phenomenon, we might suspect a team that relies on a bunch of late-game comebacks to be especially primed for regression to the mean. But the Falcons' comebacks don't suggest their record is hollow."