Maxwell Quarterfinal projections

Marist's Champ Davis (10) gets tackled by Blessed Trinity's Mavrick Torrico (32) in the second half at Blessed Trinity Catholic High School in Roswell on Friday, August 27, 2021. Marist won 28-13 over Blessed Trinity. (Hyosub Shin / Hyosub.Shin@ajc.com)
Caption
Marist's Champ Davis (10) gets tackled by Blessed Trinity's Mavrick Torrico (32) in the second half at Blessed Trinity Catholic High School in Roswell on Friday, August 27, 2021. Marist won 28-13 over Blessed Trinity. (Hyosub Shin / Hyosub.Shin@ajc.com)

Credit: HYOSUB SHIN / AJC

Credit: HYOSUB SHIN / AJC

These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.

The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5, and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.

Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team, and the median margin of victory for the favorite.

The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.

The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or less and at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and thus the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated.

Nov 26

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
91.45AAAAAAAMill Creek57.9%28-244MiltonAAAAAAA
90.26AAAAAABuford74.5%26-1511Lee CountyAAAAAA
86.62AAAAAAABrookwood66.8%27-216WaltonAAAAAAA
83.11AAAAAAARoswell57.7%21-201GraysonAAAAAAA
82.98AAAAAAACollins Hill96.7%35-629LowndesAAAAAAA
82.10AAAABenedictine85.3%37-2314MaristAAAA
81.87AAAAAAWestlake51.4%26-251CarrolltonAAAAAA
77.81AAAAAAHughes71.5%22-148Northside (Warner Robins)AAAAAA
76.86AAAAPerry55.2%21-201CedartownAAAA
76.29AAThomasville50.8%23-221Rabun CountyAA
73.72AAAAAAJohns Creek56.1%26-224DaculaAAAAAA
72.99AAAANorth Oconee52.6%21-201BainbridgeAAAA
72.63AAAThomson56.0%19-163Appling CountyAAA
71.31AAAAAWarner Robins93.2%41-2021Jones CountyAAAAA
71.24AAACrisp County54.7%21-201Cedar GroveAAA
69.74AAAPierce County68.2%21-147Peach CountyAAA
67.94AAAAACreekside89.8%31-1219WhitewaterAAAAA
67.14AAAACarver (Columbus)83.4%30-1515DoughertyAAAA
66.82AAAAACalhoun90.9%34-1420Clarke CentralAAAAA
66.56A PublicMacon County50.1%23-230Irwin CountyA Public
66.27AAABurke County53.4%24-222Carver (Atlanta)AAA
65.16A PrivateCalvary Day79.8%28-1612Fellowship ChristianA Private
63.87A PrivateEagle's Landing Christian81.2%27-1413Holy InnocentsA Private
63.68AASwainsboro55.5%19-154NortheastAA
63.31AAAAABlessed Trinity83.1%28-1414Villa RicaAAAAA
60.95AAFitzgerald78.1%26-1412Putnam CountyAA
60.53A PrivatePrince Avenue Christian84.8%27-1017First PresbyterianA Private
56.04AACallaway64.8%28-217South AtlantaAA
53.28A PrivateTrinity Christian (Sharpsburg)98.9%42-042DarlingtonA Private
53.24A PublicMetter92.4%35-1421Turner CountyA Public
49.52A PublicManchester51.6%20-200Wilcox CountyA Public
47.25A PublicBrooks County92.0%34-1321Warren CountyA Public
40.07GISA AAAPinewood Christian66.8%32-275Westfield SchoolGISA AAA
27.56GISA AAAJohn Milledge Academy99.2%38-038Tiftarea AcademyGISA AAA
24.24GISA AABrentwood School94.3%35-1223Gatewood SchoolGISA AA
20.85GISA AATerrell Academy89.6%32-1319Edmund Burke AcademyGISA AA