It might have been better had the Falcons gone win-lose-win-lose all the way to 8-8. We’d be sitting here saying, “That’s what they were – a mediocre team.” As it is, we don’t know what to make of them: Were they as good as they looked at 5-0? Are they as bad as they appeared in losing six straight and blowing a playoff berth? Did they overachieve? Underachieve? Achieve anything at all?
The Falcons entered 2015 believing a new voice would lift a team that, after seven seasons, had wearied of the best coach in franchise history. They hired the energetic Dan Quinn, who opened Monday’s recap of a bittersweet season with words he’d shared with his players: “One does not understand what it means to be relentless until you’ve struggled to attain something that remains just out of your reach.”
When Quinn was hired, Arthur Blank’s stated aim was to “win now.” Sure enough, Quinn hit the ground winning and looked like the next Vince Lombardi. Then the winning ceased and the man with the new plan seemed as flummoxed as Phil Bengston. And now we’re asking the question posed this time a year ago: Have the Falcons stopped winning – this made three consecutive non-winning seasons after five plus-.500 years – due to lack of coaching or a dearth of manpower?
If it’s too early to call time on DQ, it must be noted that two rookie head coaches under Blank – Jim Mora and Mike Smith – inherited what were, on the record, worse teams and went 11-5 and made the playoffs. (Smitty did it with a rookie quarterback.) To have taken a 6-10 team and won eight games against the NFL’s softest schedule was only a minimal upgrade.
Quinn’s Falcons were 1-5 in the NFC South. They lost five games to teams that finished with losing records. They lost twice to backup quarterbacks. They lost twice to a rookie quarterback (Jameis Winston both times). They became the seventh team (of 77) since the 1970 merger to start 5-0 and miss the playoffs. And if you’re saying, “We all knew they weren’t as good as 5-0,” aren’t you also saying that 8-8 is a mirage? And if that’s the case, where’s the hope for next year?
Firing Smith and hiring Quinn was the big move — general manager Thomas Dimitroff remained in place, if not quite so fully empowered – and it didn’t move the needle enough for the Falcons to play beyond their 16th game. On Monday, Quinn was asked if he believed his team was talented enough to have made the playoffs. “I do,” he said.
What was missing? “Not having a philosophy to own the ball and go after it. That gives me the belief we have the talent, but we’re not there yet.”
That’s a fact: The Falcons were 27th among 32 NFL teams in turnover margin. But here’s a no-fun number: Per Pro Football Reference’s Simple Rating System – an SRS uses margin of victory and strength of schedule as guides – the Falcons’ team rating was minus-3.8, the same as in 2014. Difference was, Smith’s final team was OK on offense but lacking in defense; Quinn’s first club was the other way around.
Under coordinator Kyle Shanahan, the Falcons were seventh in total offense – they had a 4,500-yard passer, an 1,800-yard receiver and a 1,000-yard rusher – but tied for 25th in offensive touchdowns. They managed 34, or roughly one per half. Only once over the final 10 games did the offense muster more than two touchdowns; in the season-ending loss to New Orleans, it didn’t score a second-half point against the NFL’s second-worst defense.
Ryan regressed under Shanahan to become something he has never been – a liability. That’s the second-most chilling takeaway, no pun intended, from the season that just unraveled. The most chilling is that Dimitroff, who in eight years hasn’t assembled enough talent to fuel a Top 10 defense, remains the GM — at least as of this writing.
Even with a new coach and a flying start against a cake schedule, the Falcons couldn’t finish above .500. The big move didn’t hit as big as it should have. If that was Plan A, what’s Plan B? Rustle up some more offensive linemen off the waiver wire? (Yeah, that’ll work.)
About the Author
