The bye didn’t quite cut the Falcons’ season in half — it missed by a week — but the Falcons had already done something similar. Over the first four games, they were very good. Over the next five, they weren’t. As they ready to play again, we have to ask: Which part was real?
Three losses in four games has dimmed the Falcons' light. Football Outsiders gives them a 60.3 percent chance of qualifying for postseason but only a 4.1 percent chance of winning the NFC South. (After the first four weeks, they were seen as the division favorite. Carolina put lie to that.) The betting site Bovada lists them as the eighth choice — behind two teams with losing records — to win the NFC title.
The trouble with the Falcons isn’t their record. They’ve won as many games as Green Bay, recently seen as the class of the NFC. The trouble is that they’ve faced a schedule made from angel food cake.
They’ve not played an opponent that’s above .500. They’ve played two teams without their No. 1 quarterbacks; Indianapolis being without Andrew Luck, they’ll meet a third Sunday. They’ve played two teams (Dallas and Houston) that cut the quarterbacks who started against them. They played one (San Francisco) that had benched its starter. They played one (New Orleans) that has since dumped its defensive coordinator. The Falcons’ schedule to date has been the NFL’s easiest, duh, and therein lies the dilemma. If you play nobody, how can anybody tell if you’re any good?
By crunching numbers, that's how. According to Football Outsiders' ratings, the Falcons are the NFL's 18th-best team. According to ESPN's Football Power Index, they're 16th-best. According to FiveThirtyEight's ELO ratings, they're No. 15. That's a sweeping consensus that a 6-3 team isn't as strong as its record, and it gets worse.
Football Outsiders ranks the Falcons’ offense 16th, its defense 22nd and its special teams 21st. That fits the profile of a team that isn’t especially good at anything, which jibes with what we’ve seen these past five games.
Over that span, the Falcons won in overtime against 2-2 Washington; lost by 10 in New Orleans to the 1-4 Saints; won 10-7 against a 1-4 Tennessee team without Marcus Mariota; lost at home in OT to 2-4 Tampa Bay and lost on the road to 2-6 San Francisco. Their biggest lead in any of those games was six points — after Robert Alford’s walk-off interception return against the Redskins. They trailed at the half in all five.
Only San Francisco outgained the Falcons and their three losses were by a total of 16 points, but it can’t be said that they exercised any — borrowing from the College Football Playoff committee — “game control” over those five weeks. Can’t control anything if you don’t score. The Falcons had 10 offensive touchdowns in consecutive wins against Dallas and Houston; they’ve had nine in the five games since, only two of those before halftime.
No opponent has yet stopped Julio Jones, but he did go four games between 100-yard performances. Devonta Freeman averaged 5.5 yards per carry over his first four games as a starter; he has averaged 3.7 yards in the three since. Matt Ryan had bad days in victories over Washington and Tennessee; in the three losses he had a passer rating of 93.1 or better, so go figure.
Granted, some of our angst is due to timing. If we flip the Falcons’ schedule and put the lesser showings first, we’d be saying, “This team has figured it out.” Instead we’re wondering if their talent, like water, has sought its level. We’re wondering if the 5-0 start was some trick of the light. (Then again, if the Falcons hadn’t been 5-0, they might not regard Dan Quinn as a coach capable of setting things right. For the sake of credibility, a flying start was needed.)
The schedule toughens a bit — it could hardly do otherwise — over the final seven games. Still, the Falcons could finish 10-6 without beating anybody of worth. That would probably get them into the playoffs. It wouldn’t make them a good team. At this point, it’s unclear if they’re capable of being a good team.
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