They’re 2-0, twice having needed late rallies. To the naked eye, they’ve improved on defense; by the measure of cold numbers, progress has been incremental – they’re 26th in total defense, 29th in pass defense and 21st in opponents’ third-down conversions. (They were 32nd, meaning last, in all three categories in 2014.) They have as many sacks as a team as J.J. Watt.
They’re 2-0, having outgained opponents by a total of 10 yards. They’ve led early in both games, been outplayed in the midsection and won at the end. They wouldn’t appear a great team by any index — save the “Wow” Factor, due solely to Julio Jones – but these unassuming Falcons have given themselves a real chance to have a good-if-not-great season.
In a Football Outsiders post, Scott Kacsmar noted the Falcons were the 21st team since 1960 to open a season with two fourth-quarter comebacks. (The 1960 NFL champ was Philadelphia, which had Norm Van Brocklin as quarterback. In 1968, Van Brocklin became the expansion Falcons’ second head coach.) Thirteen of the previous 20 missed the playoffs. Only four won as many as 10 games, and two of those four – Arizona and Philadelphia – came last year.
Kacsmar’s chart offers two sobering case studies. As quarterbacked by Matt Schaub, once Michael Vick’s understudy here, Houston won its first two games in 2013 via fourth-quarter comebacks. It didn’t win again. That same year, Vick himself led the Eagles to fourth-quarter wins in Weeks 1 and 2. He would hurt his ankle and lose his starting job to Nick Foles; Philly would finish 4-12.
Local history: The 1979 Falcons opened 2-0 with road rallies against the Saints and Eagles. The first came in overtime on an interception by James Mayberry, a rookie playing in punt coverage. The snap flew over punter Russell Erxleben’s head. Frantic, Erxleben threw the ball with two hands. Mayberry caught it and scored. He would describe the feeling as “a great euphoria.” It was, alas, fleeting. The Falcons finished 6-10.
In sum, two narrow wins to open a season are no predictor of greatness. (Only one of the 20 teams to do it – the 1980 Bengals, who saw Ken Anderson get hurt in Game 1 and whose two comebacks were led by Turk Schonert, eventually yet another Falcons quarterback – made the Super Bowl.) Narrow wins are often a function of luck. But there’s a counterpoint coming, and it’s a compelling one.
The Falcons entered the season with the league’s softest schedule. They’ve won two games that figured to be among their more difficult. They’re scheduled to play only four games against teams that made the 2014 playoffs. One will come Sunday versus Dallas, which will be without Dez Bryant and Tony Romo for the foreseeable future. The next won’t arrive until Nov. 22 against Indianapolis, which has started 0-2. The other two are against Carolina, which won the NFC South last season at 7-8-1.
In a post for ESPN Insider, Football Outsiders editor Aaron Schatz cited the uninspiring history of teams that have opened with two fourth-quarter rallies but wrote: “It’s hard to imagine that any of those past teams had a schedule as easy as the one the Falcons play … Atlanta has the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL and nobody else is even close.”
After playing Dallas, the Falcons’ next six games are against Houston, Washington, New Orleans, Tennessee, Tampa Bay and San Francisco. Those teams were an aggregate 32-64 last season; they’re 4-9 now. Granted, the Falcons were bad themselves (6-10) in 2014. But they’re 2-0. If they can win even four of the next seven, they’ll be 6-3 with games against the Buccaneers and the Jaguars set for December. We note again: Eight wins would have won the NFC South last season.
Even at 2-0, the Falcons’ margin for error has been so thin as to suggest they’ll lose some games they shouldn’t. With this schedule, though, no game appears unwinnable. They could go 10-6 — or better! — and claim their division without being anywhere near a great team. But I imagine they’d take that in a New Jersey minute.
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