The Falcons are 6-4, which is what they were after 10 games last season. They finished 8-8. This team will not finish 8-8. This team will make the playoffs.
It might even win a game once there, which is as far as I’m prepared to go, at least this week. That is, I concede, further than I’d have ventured two months ago. I figured this team would go 7-9 or thereabouts. It has been much better than I expected. Sometimes I’m wrong.
Two months back, I was convinced Kyle Shanahan wasn’t the offensive coordinator for Matt Ryan. As it stands, Ryan might be the NFL’s MVP. (Wrong again.) When the Falcons lost their opener to Tampa Bay, I thought the season might slip away by Columbus Day. They won their next four games, three of them on the road. (And yet again …)
The Falcons hit their bye week having dropped three of five. Only one of those losses — San Diego here — could be deemed a surprise. With this schedule, a dip was inevitable. If we go by ESPN's latest power rankings, the Falcons have faced the teams ranked Nos. 2, 4, 6 and 8, with all four games on the road. That they went 2-2 suggests they should be ranked higher than the No. 7 ESPN assigns them. Sure enough, Football Outsiders slots the Falcons at No. 4 in its ratings.
Against a schedule rated the NFL's co-toughest (with San Francisco) before the season, 6-4 is a heck of an achievement. By way of contrast, last year's 6-4 had been achieved against a slate that saw the Falcons meet only two teams that would reach the playoffs; both games were staged in the Georgia Dome. A year ago, 6-4 actually was a disappointment. This time it's a stamp of legitimacy.
If you're counting, that makes five paragraphs of almost unadulterated praise. Here's where the "but" arrives. Football Outsiders' DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) rankings show the Falcons with the NFL's best offense and its seventh-worst defense. That's a difference of 25 spots. There's only one wider variance — Baltimore has the league's second-best defense and second-worst offense — in Outsiders' table.
Another number, this even more chilling. We mentioned Ryan’s MVP case. He has completed 68.2 percent of his passes. As ESPN notes, Falcons opponents have completed 68.2 percent of their passes. This defense is so flimsy that it has turned every opposing quarterback into the rough equivalent of an MVP-caliber quarterback. Whoa, Nellie.
Of the past 10 Super Bowl champs, six have ranked higher in total offense than total defense. Over that span, three teams with the NFL’s top-ranked defense (Pittsburgh in 2008, Seattle in 2013 and Denver last year) have won a title. Only one has won with the league’s top offense (New Orleans in 2009). Only one (Green Bay in 2010) has ranked among the top 10 in both. Moral of our story: You don’t have to be great at both, and in 2012 Baltimore (16th in offense, 17th in defense) wasn’t all that hot at either.
The Saints won in 2009 with the No. 1 offense and the 25th-best defense, which is very close to what these Falcons have. To say the Birds cannot win the Super Bowl with this defense is probably incorrect. They could, conceivably. It would, however, be mighty hard.
From Games 2 through 8, the Falcons averaged 35.1 points. We saw Sunday what can happen when they don’t score in bunches. They lost 24-15 to a Philadelphia team with an excellent defense but a middling offense. It’s entirely possible they could see a team like the Eagles — or even the Eagles themselves — again in January.
That loss didn't do much damage to the Falcons' odds of winning the NFC South; Football Outsiders still gives them an 82.6 percent chance. Where it hurt was in the quest for a Round 1 bye. Outsiders' odds show the Falcons with a 25 percent chance of finishing among the NFC's top two; Dallas is at 77.4 percent, Seattle at 68.1 percent. That said …
A check of remaining games shows dates with Arizona and Kansas City, both in the Dome, coming next. Those will be difficult. What follows should not: Rams there, 49ers here, Panthers there, Saints here. None of those four is above .500. It’s not unthinkable that the Falcons could go 4-2 if not 5-1 against that schedule. The former would surely yield a division title; the latter could give them that precious bye.
The Falcons aren't yet home and dry, but the hardest part is behind them. There's not a road game left that looks half as tough as what they've already faced. If they could get just a bit better on defense — yes, we've been saying this for a while — they might inflict serious postseason damage. Their offense affords them a puncher's chance against anybody. Imagine if they had a right hook to go with all those left jabs.
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