Super Bowl matchups: Falcons-Patriots

ADVANTAGE: Falcons

FALCONS RUN DEFENSE VS. PATRIOTS RUN OFFENSE

Falcons: There's been improvement everywhere in the Falcons' defense, and Seattle and Green Bay did little damage against the Falcons in two playoff games. The Falcons ranked No. 16 against the run, allowing 104.5 yards per game, and in surrendering an average of 4.52 yards per carry, they ranked No. 26. This is a committee effort, where defensive coordinator Richard Smith counts on speedy linebackers Deion Jones, De'Vondre Campbell, Philip Wheeler and strong safety Keanu Neal to fill gaps. There will be a long rotation up front in tackles Jonathan Babineaux, Courtney Upshaw, Ra'Shede Hageman and Grady Jarrett — the best run-stopper in the group. Ends Brooks Reed, Dwight Freeney, Tyson Jackson and Vic Beasley are going to have to do their share as well. The Falcons have been especially vulnerable on the flanks, as their averages of 6.02 yards surrendered around the offense's left end and 5.58 at right end each ranked No. 24.

Patriots: New England's run distribution in the regular season from left end to right end: 54-56-62-142-60-58-29. It's a bit of a mystery why the Patriots didn't run more around right end, outside of right tackle Marcus Cannon. He received several All-Pro votes, and the Patriots ranked No. 2 in the NFL with an average of 6.69 yards around right end. It's no surprise they run so much up the middle. Running back LaGarrette Blount (6-feet, 241 pounds) is a bull. He rushed for 1,161 yards and 18 touchdowns and is a serious threat in short-yardage and red-zone situations. The Patriots ranked No. 7 in rushing yards per game (117.0), although they were No. 25 in yards per carry (3.88). James White and Dion Lewis offer change of speed out of the backfield. Left guard Joe Thuney is a rookie, and center David Andrews (Georgia) and right guard Shaq Mason (Georgia Tech) are in their second seasons.

ADVANTAGE: Patriots

FALCONS PASS OFFENSE VS. PATRIOTS PASS DEFENSE

Falcons: Matt Ryan has had a season for the ages, and he's currently riding the ultimate hot streak as the first quarterback in NFL history to turn in passer ratings of 120 or better in six consecutive games. He has the game's greatest weapon in fellow first-team All-Pro wide receiver Julio Jones, one of 13 Falcons to catch at least one touchdown pass this season. Ryan's completed 72.8 percent of his passes in that stretch, averaging 9.5 yards per attempt, with 18 touchdowns and no interceptions. The Falcons have a huge bonus with running backs Freeman and Coleman in the passing game, and everybody helps create multiple hot spots for Ryan. He leads the league on deep-middle and deep-right throws with 70.83 and 64.52 percentages, respectively, for averages of 17.25 and 21.97 yards. The Falcons' short-right and short-middle passing games also rank among the NFL's best.

Patriots: Beyond the intrigue behind how New England coach Bill Belichick and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia go about slowing Jones — assign top-flight corner Malcolm Butler? Double him with second-team All-Pro free safety Devin McCourty? — there's this: How can the Pats cover Freeman and Coleman? Inside linebackers Kyle Van Noy and Elandon Roberts, who play in many passing situations, are average in coverage. So are other linebackers. Roberts allowed 13 completions in 15 targets. Strong safety/linebacker Patrick Chung is a liability, and will try to cover emerging tight end Austin Hooper and a running back now and then. Cornerback Logan Ryan, who often moves into the slot, will be a good matchup for the Falcons' Mohamed Sanu. New England's weaknesses in pass defense mirror the Falcons' strengths. The Patriots allowed a 73.06 percent completion rate short right, ranking No. 30. They're No. 27 against deep middle (60.87 percent) and No. 27 against deep right (45.16). New England's 34 sacks tied the Falcons and Philadelphia for No. 16. Right end Trey Flowers led with seven.

ADVANTAGE: Falcons

FALCONS PASS DEFENSE VS. PATRIOTS PASS OFFENSE

Falcons: While the pass rush has improved dramatically, the Falcons can struggle here. A season-ending shoulder injury to cornerback Desmond Trufant hurt, and while second-year pro Jalen Collins has performed admirably and rookies Keanu Neal and Brian Poole have played past their status, the young Falcons are going to have their hands very full. The Falcons will mix coverages and hope that the front can apply constant pressure, preferably without having to blitz much. Outside linebacker/end Vic Beasley led the NFL with 15.5 sacks, but he rarely worked against anyone as stout as New England right tackle Marcus Cannon, who hasn't allowed a sack in 17 games. The Falcons don't have to worry about chasing Patriots quarterback Tom Brady around like Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson, but he gets rid of the ball in a hurry, and disrupting him will be key. The Falcons had better know they're going to see pick plays and rubs. There are going to be a lot of situations where defenders will have to switch covers as in basketball.

Patriots: If not for Ryan's season, many would be talking about Brady's as one of the NFL's very best, even though he was suspended for the first four games. A master at reading defenses, and especially at beating blitzes, his go-to guy is wide receiver Julian Edelman. Just 5-foot-10 and 200 pounds, he's quick and has a knack for finding holes in zones. He caught 98 passes for 1,106 yards, and works very well out of the slot. There, he'll likely match against Poole, who allowed 230 yards after catches this season, fifth-most in the NFL. Edelman's 14 missed tackles forced ranked No. 5, while Poole had nine missed tackles. Cornerback Robert Alford likely will be the strongest member of the Falcons secondary, but even without injured tight end Rob Gronkowski, New England poses matchup problems with tight end Martellus Bennett (55 catches, seven touchdowns) and running back James White (60 catches, five touchdowns). They'll keep Atlanta linebackers and safeties busy, as the Patriots run a slew of crossing routes and wiggle wideout Kevin Hogan free.

ADVANTAGE: Patriots

FALCONS SPECIAL TEAMS VS. PATRIOTS SPECIAL TEAMS

Falcons: Kicker Matt Bryant led the NFL in scoring with a career-high 158 points, while making 34 of 37 field goals to earn his first Pro Bowl honor. Beyond him and his 62-yard career long, the Falcons generally are in the middle of the pack in most special-teams categories. With Eric Weems as return man, the Falcons' average punt return of 11.4 yards ranks No. 5. They're No. 21 in kickoff return average (21.0), tied for No. 23 in punt return yardage allowed (9.6) and tied for 21st in kickoff return yardage allowed (22.6). Atlanta did not return a punt or kickoff for a touchdown, nor allow one, but Kansas City scored a touchdown against the Falcons on a fake punt.

Patriots: Kicker Stephen Gostkowski has led the NFL in scoring five times, including from 2012-15. The fourth-most accurate kicker in league history with an 87.069 percent success rate, he made 27 of 32 this season. He doesn't have the range of Bryant, but converted from 57 yards a couple of years ago, and has made a whopping 95.7 percent of his fourth-quarter field-goal tries in his career. New England ranks low on punt and kickoff returns, mixing up return responsibilities chiefly between Edelman and wide receiver Danny Amendola on punts while nine players have returned at least one kickoff. Special-team players Nate Ebner and Matt Develin drew All-Pro votes, safety Devin McCourty is effective on teams, and the Patriots are stout in coverage. They're No. 2 in punt-return yardage allowed (5.0) and No. 3 in kickoff-return yardage allowed (19.3).

ADVANTAGE: Patriots

FALCONS COACHINGS VS. PATRIOTS COACHING

Falcons: This is coach Dan Quinn's third Super Bowl in four seasons, and he's quite a candidate for NFL coach of the year. Offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan has been masterful in running the Falcons' offense, which led the NFL in scoring at 33.8 points per game. He thus won the option to become head coach of the 49ers after the season. If the Super Bowl plays out in the Falcons' favor, Shanahan and Quinn will be lauded as one of the great pairings atop an NFL team in many years. A tip of the hat here to focused energy.

Patriots: Bill Belichick is in his seventh Super Bowl as a head coach, and he went to three as an assistant with the Giants and Patriots, winning two and losing one. He was defensive coordinator for the Giants team that upset the Bills 20-19 in the Super Bowl following the 1990 season, and his game plan from that is in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. If he falls to 4-3 as a head coach in the big game, it's not likely to be because he makes a mistake. Defensive coordinator Matt Patricia has helmed the league's No. 1 scoring defense, as New England allowed just 15.6 points per game in the regular season defense.

ADVANTAGE: Falcons

INTANGIBLES

Falcons: The Falcons are a bit healthier than New England, as only Jones (sprained toe) and Mack (left fibula) were limited in practice Wednesday. Freeney was slowed Thursday by a calf strain. Jones has dealt with the finicky toe for months and showed no limitation, obviously, in the NFC Championship game against Green Bay. Mack's high ankle sprain bears watching. A very painful injury where swelling can be problematic, it kept him from practicing at all last week. If he were to leave the game, it could be potentially catastrophic for the offense. No, the Falcons don't have near the Super Bowl experience of the Patriots, as only five players have been on such a roster, and four played in the game. But Quinn and his players have shown no signs of losing their minds leading to this game. The Falcons may be more steeled for this game for having played a considerably tougher schedule.

Patriots: Several New England players were limited in practice Wednesday, chief among them Hightower (shoulder) and Bennett (knee). Both are expected to play, as are wide receivers Chris Hogan (thigh) and Malcolm Mitchell (knee). Ebner continues to mend a concussion, and Branch was added to the injury report after a teammate stepped on his toe. That injury is not considered serious, but if something were to happen to Branch, it could be significant. The Patriots are thin depth-wise along the defensive line. New England has a big edge, on paper, with 23 players who've been on at least one Super Bowl roster, including 21 who played in the game. That doesn't hurt, but nothing matters more than the quarterback who's playing in his seventh, Tom Brady. He's one player.

ADVANTAGE: Patriots