The NFL has devalued running backs. None were taken in Round 1 of the 2013 or 2014 drafts. Contrast this to that time in the late 1970s into the ’80s — ESPN had just started to televise the draft — when four times in five years a back was the No. 1 of No. 1s.
Thirteen men rushed for 1,000 or more yards last season. Only one of those 13 — Marshawn Lynch, about whom more later — was drafted in Round 1. One of the 13 wasn’t drafted. Of the 12 who were, the average draft position was 81st, or toward the end of Round 3.
Remember the old saw about running to win? Of the 13 teams with 1,000-yard backs, seven missed the playoffs. The leading rusher for the New England Patriots on the night they won the Super Bowl was LeGarrette Blount, who wasn’t drafted and was cut by two teams and traded by a third. He gained 40 yards.
The NFL, which once valued runners nearly as much as quarterbacks, has come to view running backs as interchangeable. Not many stay on the field for three consecutive downs. There are first-round backs and third-down backs and change-of-pace backs, but there aren’t many true “feature” backs. Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson was long seen as the last of a nearly extinct lot, but Peterson — for reasons other than football — played only one game last season. The Vikings didn’t collapse in his absence.
The point being: If you’re a team holding a top-10 pick in the coming draft, you probably aren’t eyeballing running backs. Recent history teaches that you can find one of those later. Question is, can you find a Todd Gurley?
We ask because the Falcons hold the No. 8 pick in Round 1, and the Georgia product — even coming off ACL repair — is regarded as one of the draft’s 10 biggest talents. The Falcons cut ties with Steven Jackson, the disappointing replacement for Michael Turner, and Jacquizz Rodgers was allowed to leave. The remaining backs are Devonta Freeman and Antone Smith.
The Falcons have a new coach in Dan Quinn, lately of Seattle. The Seahawks won with defense, and Quinn’s background is as a defensive coordinator. But the Seahawks also won with an offense powered by the aforementioned Lynch, and the NFL player Gurley is believed to resemble most is — pause for effect — Marshawn Lynch.
The reason the Falcons have a new coach is that their defense never got good in seven seasons under Mike Smith, a defensive coordinator by trade. Under Smith, the defense ranked 24th, 21st, 16th, 12th, 24th, 27th and last in the 32-team NFL. The chief reason was the lack of a pass rush. Over Smith’s final three seasons, the Falcons were 28th, 29th and 30th in sacks.
The widespread belief is that the Falcons will spend their first pick on a pass-rusher, and who could argue? But let’s say, for the sake of conversation, the pass-rushers considered the class of this crop — Leonard Williams of USC, Dante Fowler Jr. of Florida, Shane Ray of Missouri — are gone when the Falcons pick. Let’s say the man who might be the next Marshawn Lynch is available, and that man played college ball 50 miles from Flowery Branch.
My hesitation would be this: The Falcons already have an offensive modus operandi. They throw and they catch, and that’s not apt to change — not with Matt Ryan working on a $103 million contract and with Julio Jones needing to be re-upped. The Seahawks don’t throw and catch the same way; Seattle ranked 27th in passing last season.
With all due respect to Russell Wilson, the Seattle offense is predicated on Lynch. (The Seahawks led the NFL in rushing in 2014. Wilson gained 849 yards, most among NFL quarterbacks.) As good as Gurley is, he wouldn’t be the focal point here, and then the choice becomes a value judgment. You’re a team in dire need of a defensive upgrade; even in going 6-10 last season, your offense was the league’s eighth-best. When it’s time to make a tone-setting pick — taking Ryan at No. 3 in 2008 set the tone for the post-Vick Falcons — do you prop up the unit that needs less help?
If I thought the Falcons would give Gurley the ball 20 times a game, I’d say, “Take Gurley.” But I don’t. This offense is likewise under new management — Kyle Shanahan has replaced the excellent Dirk Koetter — but I can’t imagine any coordinator inheriting Ryan and Jones and saying, “Forget them. We need to establish the run.”
It’s said that general manager Thomas Dimitroff will make the decision on draft picks, even as assistant GM Scott Pioli has taken charge of scouting. (And Quinn has been given “final say” over the roster itself. Can’t tell the front-office players without a scorecard.) This would seem the opportune moment for Dimitroff to right the biggest failure of his stewardship — the inability to land a difference-making defender.
The belief here is that Gurley will be a splendid pro. He’s just not what the Falcons need.
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