Think of a football team as your house. Even if things seem fine structurally, the kitchen and bathrooms probably need updating, the carpet needs to be ripped up and everything needs a new coat of paint. Otherwise, don’t expect great results when it goes the market.
The Falcons showed like an old house last season. There’s an argument that, given injuries, they weren’t as bad as a 4-12 record might indicate. But they went into the offseason with a long to-do list to bring things up to standard again.
I’m not sure everything has been checked off.
The offensive line needed to get better. It probably did. Tackle Jake Matthews was drafted and guard Jon Asamoah was signed in free agency. Those two moves should help a starting line that could neither pass protect (Matt Ryan: 44 sacks) or run block (Falcons ranked 32nd in rushing) last season.
The pass rush needed to get better. If the arrow is pointing up here, it’s not obvious.
Drafting Jadeveon Clowney would’ve helped. But trading with Houston for the No. 1 pick to get Clowney presumably was deemed cost-prohibitive, so it wouldn’t be fair to criticize general manager Thomas Dimitroff. We can certainly debate whether the draft would have had a greater impact if the Falcons moved up for outside linebacker Khalil Mack instead of taking Matthews. But that’s all about player evaluation — and, again, the Falcons needed a tackle.
There weren’t a lot of great pass rushers in the draft other than Clowney and Mack. The Falcons had interest in Auburn end Dee Ford, Ohio State outside linebacker Ryan Shazier and Boise State linebacker DeMarcus Lawrence. They got none of those.
The problem is what the Falcons’ defensive front looks like today: heavy at tackle but light at end and outside linebacker, where the sacks often come from.
This is a defense that ranked only 29th in the NFL last season with 32 sacks. There is an absolute correlation between 2.0 sacks per game and four wins per season.
Coach Mike Smith says sack numbers are “overrated.” He repeated it the other day, adding: “It is about making the quarterback uncomfortable and making him have to move off of that spot he is so accustomed to standing in when he is throwing.”
He’s somewhat correct about that. But more often than not, sack numbers are telling. There were 13 playoff-worthy teams last season — 12 that made it in and Arizona, which finished 10-6 but was left out after tiebreakers. Ten of those 13 teams finished in the top 13 in sacks: Carolina (ranked No. 1), New Orleans (4), New England (5), Kansas City (6t), Arizona (T-6) Seattle (T-8), Green Bay (T-8), Cincinnati (10), Indianapolis (11) and Denver (13).
Contrast that with the records of the 13 teams with the worst sacking defenses in the NFL: Jacksonville (4-12), Chicago (8-8), Houston (2-14), Atlanta (4-12), Detroit (7-9), Pittsburgh (8-8), New York Giants (7-9), Dallas (8-8), Tampa Bay (4-12), San Diego (9-7), Washington (3-13), Tennessee (7-9) and Philadelphia (10-6). That’s 11 non-playoff teams and only two winning records.
Please. Don’t tell me sacks don’t matter.
The Falcons signed defensive tackle Paul Soliai and 3-4 end Tyson Jackson in free agency. They join tackles Jonathan Babineaux, Corey Peters, Peria Jerry and Travian Robertson. It didn’t figure the team would spend a second-round pick on a player, Ra’Shede Hageman, who played nose tackle at Minnesota. But Dimitroff and Smith believe Hageman, at 6 feet 6 and 310 pounds, projects well as an end. He’ll join Osi Umenyiora, who’s the closest thing the Falcons have to a proven pass rusher.
Whether the Falcons run a 3-4 or 4-3 scheme, it seems clear the intent will be to try to collapse opposing offensive lines with their strength and then hope that one or two defenders with speed can get to the quarterback. Maybe that’s Umenyiora. Maybe that’s Kroy Biermann (if he can come back from a torn Achilles). Maybe that’s one of the other draft picks, Prince Shembo from Notre Dame. Maybe it’s somebody else.
But right now, the Falcons look weak in area where they had to get stronger if they hoped to contend in the NFC South and the conference next season. And it’s no coincidence that division rivals Carolina and New Orleans had two of the league’s best pass rushes last season and both made the playoffs.
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