Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan, who turned 30 and is signed through the 2018 season, is showing signs of slippage this season.
The time likely has come for the franchise to start thinking about his eventual replacement in the quarterback-driven NFL.
After seven strong seasons of play, an unprecedented stretch of mediocre play by the record-setting quarterback, suggests that time be come sooner than expected if Ryan can’t pull out of his slump.
Ryan, a three-time Pro Bowler, has thrown 10 interceptions and lost three fumbles over the past seven games, and the Falcons are tied with Detroit for the most turnovers in the NFC with 22 and are in danger of missing the playoffs for a third consecutive season.
With Ryan as a starter, the Falcons are 72-49, but are 16-27 in his 43 starts since reaching the NFC title game in January 2013.
The Falcons know that Ryan, who is owed $50.75 million in base salaries, won’t play forever. He is set to make $15.75 million in base salary in 2016, $15.75 million in 2017 and $19.25 million in 2018.
The Falcons know they must start thinking about the future, and based on the poor quarterback play around the league, they’ll need to draft his successor in the coming draft or in 2017 for him to serve an old-school apprenticeship. It’s clear that it still takes time to develop quarterbacks, despite Ryan’s and Joe Flacco’s rapid success after they were selected in the 2008 draft.
Both guided their teams to the playoffs as rookies.
At that time, the Falcons were in a bind because Michael Vick was going to prison on federal dogfighting charges. They thoroughly scouted the group of quarterbacks coming out and chose Ryan with the third overall pick.
He started immediately, while being groomed by quarterbacks coach Bill Musgrave and offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey. But Falcons owner Arthur Blank knows that’s not the norm around the league. The Falcons can’t wait for Ryan to retire and then go out and pick his successor.
“You see teams around the league that have a lot of other pieces, but don’t have a quarterback,” Blank said recently. “They struggle and they bring in a quarterback, and the quarterback can’t make it. Fifty percent of the quarterbacks drafted in the first round are busts. They don’t make it in the league.”
Cleveland is the model franchise for getting the quarterback situation wrong. They are about to start their 24th quarterback since re-entering the league in 1999 after the original Browns moved to Baltimore.
Denver’s John Elway appears to have a strong plan.
The Broncos drafted Brock Osweiler in the second round (57th overall) in 2012. After studying under Peyton Manning, he’s playing well this season with Manning out with foot injury.
Even in New England, where Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff and assistant general manager Scott Pioli spent major portions of their careers working with coach Bill Belichick, the Patriots have thought about life after Tom Brady.
In 2014, they selected quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo in the second round (62nd overall) to groom behind Brady, who’s 36.
While Cleveland’s the model for getting it wrong at quarterback, the model franchise for success may be Green Bay.
Former Packers general manager Ron Wolf (1991-2001) after trading with the Falcons to land Brett Favre, he drafted quarterbacks six times. They were developed and then shipped off for draft picks. The list included Mark Brunell (151 starts in the NFL), Matt Hasselbeck (still playing) and Aaron Brooks (90 starts).
Later in 2005, Ted Thompson, a former Wolf lieutenant, drafted Aaron Rodgers in the first round with the 24th overall pick, with Favre on the roster. Rodgers sat and learned how to play quarterback for three seasons before making his first start in 2008.
Since Wolf was hired, the Packers have won two Super Bowls, been to the playoffs 17 times and have had two losing seasons in major part because they found elite quarterbacks.
Back to the Falcons’ plight.
Even if Ryan finds his swagger again and plays past 34, the Falcons could develop a replacement and trade him and then get back in the quarterback business.
The Falcons did this when they had Vick and drafted Matt Schaub. Once Schaub was developed, they traded him to Houston. However, if they knew a federal dogfighting investigation was looming, they would have kept Schaub.
Over the next few years, the Falcons will have some tantalizing options.
Memphis’ Paxton Lynch, California’s Jared Goff, Michigan State’s Connor Cook and Ohio State’s Cardale Jones are the projected top prospects at quarterback for the 2016 draft, by NFLDraftScout.com. Lynch, Goff and Jones would have to leave school early for the draft.
If they stay in school, Lynch, Goff and Jones would join Penn State’s Christian Hackenberg and Cincinnati’s Gunner Kiel as the projected top quarterback prospects for 2017.
Clemson’s Deshaun Watson of Gainesville, a former Falcons ballboy, will be one of the top-rated quarterback in the class of 2018.
The Falcons likely would have to trade up to land Lynch, should he enter the draft.
“When you talk about improvement from year to year, he’s done it,” ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper said of Lynch. “He’s 6-6, 240 pounds. This is a guy who’s Joe Flacco with more mobility.”
During the re-structuring last offseason, Blank stressed to his football men the importance of maximizing the prime of Ryan’s career.
“I made that point, that exact point to Dan (Quinn) and Thomas both,” Blank said. “Matt has been here eight years. He probably won’t play another (eight) years. Peyton (Manning) is 39 and still playing, but he’s unusual.
“Matt is 30 now. We want to make sure that we have a great franchise quarterback. We want to make sure that we support him in every possible way that we can. That’s from every perspective.”
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