The first word Dan Quinn speaks when meeting someone is, “Hello.” The second is, “Finish.” To Quinn’s Falcons, “finishing” is what “process” was to Mike Smith’s. It’s the word you hear so often you can plan press-conference drinking contests around it: You hear “finish,” you take a swig of Diet Coke.
Credit where it’s due, though: Quinn’s team has become adept at finishing. Sunday’s loss to Tampa Bay was an exception, but the Falcons did force overtime after trailing 20-3. And that – the part about trailing – brings us to today’s topic.
DQ’s Falcons: Good at finishing, bad at starting.
They’ve trailed in seven of their eight games. They’ve trailed at the half six times. They’ve scored on their first possession twice, both times banking only field goals.
Over the past four games, the Falcons have lost twice, won in overtime and won by a field goal over a team that has since fired its coach. Over those four games, none contested against a plus-.500 opponent, they’ve scored one first-half touchdown and been outscored 38-16 over Quarters 1 and 2. This from the team with Julio Jones, the league leader in receiving yards. This from the team with Matt Ryan, who has become a different sort of Matty Ice, and not in a good way.
Over 7 1/2 seasons, Ryan has been the NFL's comeback king. He has overseen 24 fourth-quarter comebacks and 30 game-winning drives, leading all quarterbacks in both categories since he entered the league. This season, however, Ryan has become a major reason the Falcons keep playing from behind.
Cold numbers, as it were: Ryan's passer rating is 82.3 in first quarters. The first-quarter passer rating for both Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers is 119.7. For Andy Dalton, it's 121.5. Ryan's passer rating on his first 10 throws of a game is 75.1. Brady's is 117.6, Rodgers' 112.1, Dalton's 121.6.
For Ryan, these chilly early numbers are a departure. In 2008, his banner rookie season, Ryan’s passer rating in first quarters was 101.7. Even last year, when the Falcons went 6-10, it was 117.3. Only in 2009 was Ryan a slow starter (79.6 rating in first quarters), and it’s no coincidence that was his worst statistical year.
That’s the weird part: Even with his tepid starts, Ryan is on pace to throw for a career-best 4,798 yards. His yards-per-pass number is 7.69, the highest since his rookie season. He’s third in the league (behind Philip Rivers and Brady) in yards passing. But his passer rating suffers – he’s 15th, slotting him between the rookie Marcus Mariota and the journeyman Brandon Weeden – because he has thrown seven interceptions. And it’s not so much the number as the timing: Five have come when the Falcons are leading or tied. He’s not throwing the ball away because he’s desperate. He’s just … throwing it away.
To me, this makes no sense. Ryan’s conditioning and attention to detail are famous within the brick building at 4400 Falcon Parkway. He’s never not prepared. He’s not often rattled. But his early imprecision and his 10 turnovers – he has six fumbles, second-most among NFL players, and half those have been lost – have made it hard on his team. (Yes, it would help if the Falcons had a center who could snap the ball.)
Asked Wednesday about the slow starts, Ryan said: “I don’t know how that works or what the difference is. Execution needs to be, from an offensive standpoint, more consistent throughout the entire game.”
Which was a Ryan-like thing to say. So was this: “I get there’s going to be criticism. I understand that’s the nature of playing this spot, and I’m fine with dealing with that. But you can’t worry about it; you can’t listen to it. It is what it is. We’ve got to focus on preparation.”
Eager to help, I asked if he’d consider warming up longer before games. (An extended bullpen session, so to speak.) “I think we’ll be fine,” Ryan said. Then he smiled. “Small sample size – eight games. We’ve got a long way to go.”
And they do. But let’s be honest: As great as Jones is, Ryan remains this team’s MVP. The Falcons aren’t going anywhere he doesn’t take them.
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