The best of Michael Bourn’s 10 big-league seasons came in 2012 as a Brave. His WAR (wins above replacement) value was 6.1, eighth-best among National Leaguers. His defensive WAR value was 3.0, third-best in the majors. Alas, he was set to become a free agent.
The Braves – then run by general manager Frank Wren – liked Bourn as a player and as a guy. They were less crazy about his age (he would turn 30 over the winter), his agent (Scott Boras) and certain aspects of his game. His on-base percentage of .348 in 2012 was good but not great for a leadoff hitter; his 155 strikeouts were alarming for a guy who didn’t hit home runs.
Of Bourn, Dave Cameron of FanGraphs wrote: “I just don’t see a lot of historical precedent for guys succeeding in their 30s with a high K/low power offensive skillset.”
From Keith Law of ESPN Insider: “(Bourn) depends almost entirely on his legs to help his team. If they go, his value drops dramatically.”
We step back for a broader view. The Braves had finished four games behind Washington in the NL East. Philadelphia was a distant third, having seen its run of five consecutive division titles snapped. If the Braves didn’t re-sign Bourn to play center field, a rival might.
The Braves had made a one-year qualifying offer of $13.3 million, which would have nearly doubled Bourn’s 2012 salary. He declined it. Not willing to commit long-term to a speed guy about to hit 30, they turned their attention to another center fielder, a Tampa Bay free agent then known as B.J. Upton.
In their minds, the Braves had done their due diligence on Upton. They liked his power (20-plus homers three times as a Ray) and his age (28) and that he’d had a strong second half in 2012 (21 homers, 49 RBIs). Law rated Upton the best position player available. For ESPN, Dave Szymborski wrote: “Once you realize that he’s probably going to hit .240-.250 and he will occasionally infuriate you with strikeouts, a player that can hit 20-25 home runs, steal 30-40 bases and play solid defense in center is a good one to have.”
One problem: Philadelphia was thought to want him badly, and this was when the Phils sold out every home game. Under Liberty Media’s ownership, the Braves had ceased to be a major player in free agency. Lo and behold, they made Upton an offer he couldn’t refuse and mightn’t have believed — $75.25 million over five seasons. Mark Bowman of MLB.com reported that the Phillies’ offer had been $20 million less than the Braves’.
On the eve of Opening Day 2015, the Braves traded the great closer Craig Kimbrel to San Diego largely because the Padres were willing to assume the money still owed to Melvin Upton Jr., as he’s now known. That’s how badly the new Braves – Wren was fired last September – wanted rid of him. And now, in the light of last week’s trade with Cleveland that brought Bourn back to the Braves, we ask how different things might have been had they re-upped him back when.
Bourn signed with the Indians on Feb. 15, 2013, for $48 million over four seasons. That was late for a big-name free agent to find a taker, which suggested the market had cooled. (The Nationals and Phillies had both landed center fielders from Minnesota – Denard Span and Ben Revere, respectively.) At $12 million per season, Bourn hadn’t even gotten four years at the Braves’ qualifying offer.
He was OK for the Tribe in 2013 (WAR value of 2.3) but – as had been predicted – declined quickly (WAR values of 0.8 last season and 0.5 this). He wasn’t the raging dud Upton had been here, but Bourn’s tenure in Cleveland is viewed as a management whiff. That’s why he was available in a trade that was essentially a mutual salary dump.
The guess is the outcry here for an underperforming Bourn wouldn’t have been nearly as deafening with Upton. That signing was the tipping point for Wren. Even as his Braves won the East in 2013, many believed they’d won despite their GM. Had he overpaid a bit less for Bourn — it still would’ve been a bad contract, just not as bad — Wren might well be running the Braves today.
