If one was told in February that the Braves would hold the National League’s best record on May 16, there likely would’ve been a combination of laughter, skepticism and sarcasm.
If one was assured they’d not only sit atop the standings, but Shane Carle would be a reason why, the chuckling probably would’ve been complemented by a resounding “Who?”
But such is the mid-May reality. The Braves are a first-place team, and Carle is assembling a legitimate case to be an NL All-Star.
Carle, a 26-year-old rookie, is riding a 13-game streak (14 1/3 innings) without giving up an earned run, allowing eight hits in that span. He owns a 0.72 ERA and has struck out 19 against six walks in 25 innings.
Of Carle’s 19 appearances, eight have exceeded one inning. That’s been especially valuable for a team whose starters are struggling to get through the seventh inning, having done so just four times.
His brilliance shouldn’t be understated. Carle entered Wednesday fifth in the majors in WAR (wins above replacement) at 0.8; tied for best among Braves relievers with Dan Winkler.
That’s a tick higher than Craig Kimbrel (0.7) and Kelvin Herrera (0.6), who are expected to receive lucrative contracts in free agency next winter.
“I just keep it simple,” Carle said. “Get an opportunity and take advantage of it. Every opportunity I’ve had has worked out well for me right now.”
Entering in the seventh for starter Brandon McCarthy, Carle allowed a lead-off double to Addison Russell on Wednesday. He induced a fly out, pop out and strikeout to end the inning. He exited in the eight after Kris Bryant's single, but A.J. Minter ensured no damage was done.
"He's been just money all year," Braves manager Brian Snitker said. "He just keeps taking the ball and getting big outs in stressful situations and doing a great job for us. It's great to see."
Carle was a low-cost, mid-January add. He had experience as a starter and reliever, but nothing about his career suggested he’d make any notable contribution to the 2018 Braves.
In 131 minor-league appearances (76 starts), he earned a 4.10 ERA. He struck out 367 and walked 114 in 527 1/3 innings.
He boasts a four-pitch repertoire, including a change-up that’s been crucial for his surprising success.
The Pirates drafted Carle in the 10th round in 2013, and traded him to the Rockies after the 2014 season. He made the majors with Colorado last season, pitching in three games and allowed three runs over four innings.
The Rockies signed closer Wade Davis, designating Carle for assignment to make room Dec. 29. He rejoined the Pirates Jan. 4 only to be DFA’d 10 days later.
Unwanted by two teams, Carle was put on the Braves’ 40-man roster. He made the team out of spring training, presumably for a limited time.
He’s been among the best relievers in baseball since. Some have argued Carle makes sense as a closer candidate, given the inconsistencies of the Arodys Vizcaino, Minter duo.
Snitker said Winkler will get a look in the ninth, but didn't mention Carle. Simply put, he's too valuable where he is.
Carle has been exceptional with runners on base, holding opponents to a .140 (6-for-43) average in such situations, while allowing just three hits in 30 at-bats with runners in scoring position.
Opponents had hit .222 (10-for-45) against Carle with the bases empty before two Cubs reached Wednesday. Overall, righties have been limited to a .148 average (7-for-48) and lefties a .243 mark (9-for-37) entering the game.
Prior to his latest outing, Carle owned a left-on-base percentage of 81.8. He’d induced a groundball 47.1 percent of the time, in line with his career averages.
His seven holds are tied with Winkler for best on the team, and second-best among rookies in the majors. The last rookie to lead the Braves in holds was Jonny Venters in 2010 (24).
Consider the April 18 game against the Phillies. With two runners on, Carle entered to face slugger Rhys Hoskins and Nick Williams. He struck out Hoskins and got Williams on a weak grounder.
"It's been really nice to see," Snitker said of Carle at the time. "Not knowing him coming in, knowing much about him, (bench coach) Walt (Weiss) had had him and knew something of him, but seems like every year there's somebody who's really going to take advantage of the situation or come on that you don't expect.
“His stuff just keeps getting better. The more responsibility, the higher situation that he gets into, he’s been really, really good.”
If that remains the case, it’ll be hard to overlook Carle for a spot in the NL’s bullpen come July 17 in Washington. The event will already likely feature several more Braves than expected, from 21-year-old Ozzie Albies to 34-year-old Nick Markakis.
But Carle would be the most astonishing of them all. And with each game, it seems to become a more realistic proposition.
