They started the season 17-7. Then they lost seven in a row.
They won six out of eight games. Then they lost four in a row to a Boston team on a 10-game losing streak.
They faced one of the worst teams in the majors (Arizona) and promptly lost two out of three. Then they played one of the best teams in the majors (Los Angeles Angels) and won two out of three.
“Weird,” Braves catcher Gerald Laird said. “We’ll win four out of five and then lose to somebody we shouldn’t, like the Cubs. We’ll win and people say, ‘Atlanta’s for real again.’ Then we’ll lose and nobody will know why.”
The Braves played their 70th game Tuesday night. They lost, again, to last-place Philadelphia. This time the score was 5-2. In two games and 22 innings, the Braves have scored three runs against a pitching staff that entered the series with a 3.95 ERA (third-worst in the National League).
We’re way past small sample sizes. This is your team, Atlanta, and your team is Sybil. And she walks with a limp.
The loss dropped the Braves a half-game out of first place in the National League East, a half-game behind Washington. With 92 games to play, that’s not the real problem. The problem is they seem far closer to the team that is 19-27 over the past seven weeks than the one that opened the season 17-7.
When a franchise has a resume with great Octobers, it’s easy to sit back and say, “No worries. They’ll straighten themselves out.” But the Braves don’t have that resume.
They haven’t won a playoff series since 2001. They certainly haven’t won one since general manager Frank Wren took over for John Schuerholz in 2007. (Six years have netted three non-playoff years and three postseasons with a combined record of 2-7.) If jobs aren’t on the line, they should be.
That’s what makes this June more significant than most. After completing a homestand Wednesday, the Braves head out on an 11-game trip, beginning with four games in Washington. This stretch of games, particularly the four against the Nationals, won’t decide the East.
Nobody will be computing magic numbers. But if things don’t go well, it could prompt Wren to make a move. It “should” prompt Wren to make a move.
The Braves fell behind early 2-0 to last-place Philadelphia on Ryan Howard’s first-inning two-run homer. When the Phillies added two more runs in the fourth off Braves starter Ervin Santana — one scoring on a passed ball by Laird — fans started to boo. So much for pennant fever.
Said Laird, as a 12-year veteran who has seen his share of trade deadline drama, “These 11 games can determine whether we’ll be in the thick of things or not. The next two or three weeks going into the All-Star break is when teams do their evaluation. This is where it’s all said or done.”
There was nothing about the Braves’ record of 36-33 before the Phillies’ game Tuesday that screams panic. But there’s also nothing about the Braves that screams, “Great second half ahead.” They have the awkward situation of a $13 million second baseman (Dan Uggla) on the bench, and another $13 million player (B.J. Upton) starting in center largely because of his contract.
Speculation about whether Uggla will be released and if Upton will be benched have been two of the major stories. For a while, everybody was talking about how the Braves had the majors’ best pitching, but that’s certainly not the case anymore.
The Nationals, meanwhile, are getting healthier and better. Their pitching staff’s ERA in June is the best in the majors at 2.33 – nearly a full run better than it was in May (3.27). That’s without starter Gio Gonzalez, who is expected to come off the disabled list Wednesday. Bryce Harper also may be activated from the disabled list in two weeks. They’re getting whole again.
The Braves will tell you they only concern themselves with the team they’re playing that day or night. But it’s natural for them to watch what the Nats are doing. “I do, just because I’m curious,” Evan Gattis said. “If I have a rough game I look up and think, ‘Well, at least they lost.’ You know what I’m saying?”
If there’s one point in the Braves’ favor, it’s that they’re 18-7 against the Nationals since 2013, including 5-1 this year. When asked if he was concerned Washington was getting healthy, Laird said, “I don’t know if it’s a concern because we’ve played them really well and we beat them at full strength. Sometimes, I think we’re the kind of team that steps up to their opponent.”
Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez said his team may “subconsciously” play to the level of it’s opponent, but added, “I think I’m more afraid when teams come in on a 10-game losing streak than 10-game winning streak.”
Great teams play to a standard, not to the level of an opponent. This team is far less than great.
