Hey there,
I have received many emails about the Braves this season. And my social media mentions have been a dumpster fire on many nights. I know many of you are frustrated, or worried, about this team.
So, I figured we’d talk about the team as a whole.
For this newsletter, I am joined by Gabriel Burns, our sports features writer who previously covered the Braves. But in his current role, Gabe still covers the Braves and baseball as a whole. He is off the beat but is still an informed opinion.
Gabe and I will often talk on the phone, or at the ballpark, about the Braves. So, I had an idea: Why not just let you into one of those conversations?
With the All-Star break approaching, now is a great time to step back and evaluate the 2024 Braves – the positives, the negatives, the future. Let’s get into it all.
JT: So, Gabe, tonight the Braves begin a series against the Phillies. We’ve both followed the Phillies’ emergence as contenders over the last couple of seasons. We both covered postseason series between the teams. This is obviously a massive series. It’s a chance for the Braves to take large steps in their pursuit of Philadelphia and the top spot in the National League East standings. The Phillies won’t have Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto or Kyle Schwarber. So, yeah, this is a huge opportunity for Atlanta. But more than anything, we need to see the Braves begin to play better. How important is this series for them?
GB: It’s big. We don’t want to overstate the importance of any one series in July, but if any of them are extra important, it’d obviously be this one. As you laid out, the Phillies are shorthanded. The Braves are going to miss Zack Wheeler, too, which is a plus. They need to win two of three. If you sweep, maybe we start viewing this a little differently as we approach the break. But given the Braves are at Truist Park - where they’ve played well, especially in front of packed weekend crowds - and the Phillies are weakened, this should be a series win. You don’t want to come out of this with an even greater deficit. And you’d feel better about where the Braves are if the deficit at the break was, say, five or six games rather than eight or nine.
Regardless, this team could certainly use a few tweaks. What do you view as the biggest need?
JT: It’s got to be an outfielder, right? This much is obvious. The Braves need more offense, and Ronald Acuña Jr. isn’t walking through the door. But to be fair to Atlanta’s outfielders, we expected Matt Olson and Austin Riley to have better seasons – though Riley is heating up. When healthy, Michael Harris II had struggled. Ozzie Albies hasn’t had a great year. We wouldn’t focus so much on Adam Duvall and Forrest Wall if those other big names were hitting.
The tough part for Alex Anthopoulos, the Braves’ top baseball man, might be this: There aren’t many true sellers – at least I don’t think there are. And who would you want from the White Sox, Angels, Athletics, etc.? I don’t see Luis Robert Jr. happening. And wouldn’t the price for someone like Tampa Bay’s Randy Arozarena be pretty steep? I’ll be fascinated to see if the Braves can meaningfully upgrade their outfield. And keep in mind, Acuña will return next season. So, if the Braves were to get a starter-level outfielder with team control, they might effectively be making Jarred Kelenic a platoon player again because Acuña and Harris are locks to start.
As we look toward the end of this month, we also need to keep in mind that the Braves should probably acquire another starting pitcher, if only to eat innings. They’ve done a magnificent job of building in extra rest for starters, but they need to protect their top starters – especially Reynaldo López and Chris Sale. They could have AJ Smith-Shawver and Ian Anderson back in the fold, but I’d think they need a back-end arm that can slot into the rotation and continue helping these guys get rest.
If you’re Anthopoulos, how big do you need to go at the deadline?
GB: I expect him to hit a couple singles, maybe a double. I think we’re looking at the roster we’ll see in October, plus a modest addition or two. I know that’s not what people want to hear, but it’s the likeliest outcome. You outlined it well. They aren’t getting Robert, there’s just too high a reported price and too many prospect-rich suitors. I’d be interested in Arozarena, who’s played better lately, but expect a steep price there, too. And if you add him, you’ve overstocked your outfield for 2025. So, a rental makes sense on several fronts, from acquisition cost to future roster construction considerations.
Neither of us expects a considerable move at shortstop, so outfield is the obvious place to upgrade. The question then becomes: Are you adding someone to platoon with Adam Duvall, who despite his overall struggles does have an .892 OPS against southpaws, or are you replacing him outright? The latter is the ideal route because Duvall becomes a bench option, but I’m not sure they’ll align on a deal for an every-day outfielder.
How do you think they should approach it and - I’m putting you on the spot here - what would you do at shortstop?
JT: Man, that’s a tough one on Duvall. We’ve seen him be so good – and get really hot – over his years with the Braves. I just don’t know that the market will allow the Braves to get an every-day outfielder at the price they might hope. I think they’re better off trying to piece this together and ride the hot hand the rest of the way.
The shortstop situation is something we keep coming back to when we talk. We’re hearing from so many fans about this. But here’s my thought: You roll with Orlando Arcia. He’s an elite defender, and I want that at that position. If it’s me, I’m not willing to sacrifice defense for more offense. And how much more offense would it be with a replacement? Arcia is preventing runs. Nacho Alvarez is killing it in Triple A, but he’s still only 21. Also, I keep coming back to something I cannot ignore: Arcia was always going to bat near the bottom of the order this year. If the big boppers on this team were hitting the way we expected, then I don’t think we’d be talking as much about Arcia, who’s still played fantastic defense.
You know what’s funny about this, though? We’re reporters, not fans. We’re not the ones paying money to see this team or living and dying by the results. This might be Fried’s last few months in a Braves uniform. It could be Charlie Morton’s final season. López and Sale are having great seasons. I’m not sure what I would tell the fan who says, “Screw sustainability and the long-term view. Let’s go all in this year.”
Speaking of López and Sale: Anthopoulos crushed the offseason. Nailed it. Even without Spencer Strider, the Braves’ rotation has been terrific. Ironically, the Braves and Phillies, who meet this weekend, have had the best starting rotations in baseball.
We know what the bats can do when they’re going. They still expect to return to form.
But it’s time for me to return the favor by putting you on the spot: Do the Braves have a rotation that can hold up and perform well enough to win the World Series?
GB: I think that’s TBD. For as great as the top of the rotation has been, there’s questions with each. Are we sure López will be a starter in October? He’s going to throw around 160 innings after covering nowhere near that total since 2019. I could see a scenario where he’s in your bullpen during the postseason.
Sale threw 151 innings over the past four seasons. He’ll pass 100 before the All-Star break. He’s been marvelous, no doubt worthy of Cy Young consideration, but we don’t know how he’ll look by that point. And on top of that, Fried has only surpassed 180 innings in a season once. Morton, God bless him, is 40 years old and hasn’t been the most steady.
They’ll be seeking a starter. But I’d make the case they could use more than just another innings eater, especially if they think there’s a chance López winds up in the postseason bullpen. All that said, the ceiling of this rotation is absolutely World Series caliber. The rotation is why I still believe this team could make a run despite its offensive woes. So, I’m not downplaying that, just acknowledging the risk here.
I’m curious if you see the group the same way. How important is adding another starter? You have some young depth and Ian Anderson is coming back, but I can’t bank much on any of that when it comes to the postseason. I’m at the point where IF you can envision the Braves making a run, it’ll be because of pitching. We have to accept the offense for what it is until something changes over a large sample size.
JT: I think you made a good point on the offense. For now, we have to take it as it is until the group shows us otherwise. I think the rotation is capable of leading the Braves to a World Series, but you can’t ignore the points you made.
And let’s be clear here: You could talk any rotation into being a house of cards that could topple. That’s the way this sport goes, right? Last season, Max Fried unexpectedly got a blister, Charlie Morton suffered a surprising finger injury and boom – the Braves’ road became much tougher. In 2022, Strider had an oblique injury in the final month and Fried became ill. You just never know what might happen, which is why I would advocate for acquiring a quality major-league starter to supplement the current rotation.
But the realistic side of me thinks the prices will be so high during this trade season. Here’s what I’m curious on, though: What if the Braves were willing to part with the prospects required to land someone like the White Sox’s Garrett Crochet? They’d have multiple years of control and could sign him to an extension upon trading for him. This way, he becomes part of your future if you do indeed lose Fried and Morton. And in this scenario, Crochet gives you another ace and takes pressure off depth starters like Smith-Shawver, Anderson, Bryce Elder, Hurston Waldrep, etc. Crochet is only one example. And it might be a bad one, as I suspect it may take more prospects than Anthopoulos is willing to deal.
The Braves’ rotation is tremendous, but we saw last year how it can all fall apart. The Braves can’t possibly run into another Game 3 problem where they’re deciding who to start and it goes poorly, can they?
I’m going to ask you this last one: How worried are you about the Braves?
GB: I’m not necessarily worried - they’ll make the postseason, and you could talk yourself into the rotation carrying them - but I’m underwhelmed. Look, I’m not tossing them aside as a contender given we just watched 84-win Arizona win the NL. But we just expected so much more than this. They lost two out of three at home to a Giants club that’d been struggling. It was another reminder that they’ve been mediocre since beginning that Seattle-Los Angeles road trip in early May. You can’t evaluate this team based on April 2023, or player resumes. In the present, this is a “meh” team despite its talent.
They need to fortify the bottom of their lineup, which is dreadful. They need a starter. They might add a reliever since every contender wants another one. There’s no one better than Anthopoulos at mining for value, so I expect this team will be improved at least moderately when August begins.
(For the record: I agree with your Crochet take. I’d love to snag a starter with contractual control. Ultimately, that might be a winter discussion because of the reasons we’ve already outlined.)
But again, I think the key components of this roster are all here. The best players need to play up to their abilities. A tweak here and there should help but this team will go as far as its core players will take it. I don’t expect them to catch the Phillies, but that isn’t the chief concern right now. It’s about figuring out how to get this team clicking anywhere close to its capabilities, then you see what the landscape looks like when you’ve corrected course.
I’m not quitting this group because we know if it comes together, this is still one of the most talented teams in the sport. If you told me the bats had come around and the top of the rotation and bullpen were status quo, I’d feel pretty good heading into the postseason. We’ve got a long way to go, though.
JT: I guess we’ll see. One thing’s for certain: We’ll both be along for the ride.
Extra Innings
* Sale is a terrific pitcher, but he helps the team in another way.
Apparently, his pregame playlist, which sometimes plays in the weight room, is really good.
“It’s one of my favorites from the starting pitchers, so he’s got that going for him,” Duvall said.
Duvall said the playlist is 90s rap music. Duvall doesn’t have a favorite song on it – he just knows that it hypes up the guys.
“I think the volume is maxed out, and it gets me pumped up,” he said.
* Catching prospect Drake Baldwin will represent the Braves at the All-Star Futures Game on July 13. The game showcases some of the sport’s best prospects.
Baldwin is Atlanta’s No. 11 prospect, per MLB Pipeline. He spent time in big-league camp with Atlanta.
Baldwin has an OPS above .700 between Double A and Triple A this season. The Braves drafted him in the third round in 2022.
* The Braves have played in 45 games on July 4 since moving to Atlanta in 1996. They are 28-17 in those games after Thursday’s loss to the Giants.
They’d won three straight games on the holiday before losing to San Francisco.
* After hosting 40,672 fans at Truist Park for Thursday’s game, the Braves have sold out 17 of their 43 home games.
