Donald Trump is all about that base in Georgia, new AJC poll finds

Your daily jolt of news and analysis from the AJC politics team
Vice President Kamala Harris (left) and former President Donald Trump (right) are in a tight race in Georgia.

Credit: Associated Pess

Credit: Associated Pess

Vice President Kamala Harris (left) and former President Donald Trump (right) are in a tight race in Georgia.

Today’s highlights include:

  • Gov. Brian Kemp signs order impacting college athletes.
  • Georgia Supreme Court rejects Catoosa County GOP’s appeal.
  • State Republicans weigh in on the U.S .House speaker’s government funding plan.

Politicians love to talk about their base — those ride-or-die voters they can count on casting ballots for them. They’re called the base for a reason: they’re the starting point of any politician’s campaign.

In the battle for Georgia’s 16 electoral votes, it appears former President Donald Trump has a firmer grasp on his base than Vice President Kamala Harris, according to a new poll out this morning from The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

Among Georgia Republicans, more than 90% say they support Trump. Plus, two-thirds of white voters and a majority of those 65 and older back the former president.

For Harris, things are good but not great. She has the support of 86% of Democrats and 77% of Black voters. That’s roughly 10 points lower than what Democrats need. Crucially, about 12% of Black voters say they haven’t made up their mind yet.

Part of the problem is the nascent state of Harris’ campaign. She’s been running for president since July 21, compared to Trump, who essentially has been running since 2015.

Read more about the AJC’s poll, including who has the edge in the presidential race, at AJC.com.

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Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the running mate of Vice President Kamala Harris, speaks to supporters at a Democratic campaign office in Macon on Tuesday.

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

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Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

GOOD MORNING. We’re 47 days away from the presidential election. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz visited Georgia Tech on Tuesday, where he got a crash course on the legend of fictional student George P. Burdell. Here’s three things to know for today:

  • The presidential campaign resumed Tuesday following Sunday’s apparent assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump. Vice President Kamala Harris sat for an interview with the National Association of Black Journalists. Trump held a town hall in Michigan.
  • Bulldog-in-Chief Brian Kemp, also known as Georgia’s governor, signed an executive order on Tuesday that appeared to open the door for colleges and universities to pay athletes via opportunities for their name, image and likeness.
Georgia first lady Marty Kemp holds a dog during the Pet Adoption Day event at the Governor's Mansion last year.

Credit: Courtesy photo

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Credit: Courtesy photo

  • Georgia first lady Marty Kemp will host the sixth Pet Adoption Day at the Governor’s Mansion on Saturday. Fill out this form to sign up for the chance to adopt some furry friends.

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MACON NICE. Tuesday was a banner day for Macon on the campaign trail.

Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Walz spent the morning stumping for votes in the middle Georgia town. And Maconite Chuck Leavell of the Allman Brothers Band fame was one of the stars of Jimmy Carter’s 100th birthday tribute in Atlanta.

Macon Mayor Pro Tem Seth Clark and his wife were among a contingent of middle Georgians who made the pilgrimage to the Fox Theatre late Tuesday to join in the celebration for Carter, whose birthday is Oct. 1.

Chuck Leavell arrives at the Fox Theatre in Atlanta for the "Jimmy Carter 100: A Celebration in Song," concert on Tuesday.

Credit: Mike Stewart/AP

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Credit: Mike Stewart/AP

He reminded us of Macon’s musical role in Carter’s rise. Phil Walden of Capricorn Records, the “rock godfather of Macon,” was an unabashed Carter supporter in the 1970s who helped press Southern rock bands to back the Georgian over Alabama Gov. George Wallace.

The Allman Brothers Band, Charlie Daniels, Wet Willie and other southern rock artists signed to Capricorn worked with Carter’s son Chip to campaign across the South for the then-Georgia governor.

After he won his party’s nomination, Carter picked Minnesotan Walter Mondale as his running mate. And on Tuesday, another Minnesotan seeking the VP job found himself in Macon.

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Georgia Supreme Court Justice Nels S.D. Peterson was dismissive of an appeal brought by the Catoosa County Republican Party.

Credit: Natrice Miller/AJC

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Credit: Natrice Miller/AJC

ONCE MORE, WITH FEELING. The Catoosa County Republican Party has had a rough few weeks. First, a federal judge rejected their attempt to disqualify four candidates from the ballot that they deemed were not Republican enough.

Then on Tuesday, the Georgia Supreme Court did the same thing — only the justices were more pointed about it. Justice Nels S.D. Petersen wrote that the party ignored the longstanding rule of doing everything they could to have their lawsuit resolved prior to the primary election and “instead requested delays.”

“Accordingly, we dismiss the appeal without reaching the merits (or lack thereof) of their claims,” Peterson wrote.

Ouch.

Despite the ruling, the issue might not be settled yet. Georgia law says that “all candidates for party nomination in a state or county primary shall qualify as such candidates in accordance with the procedural rules of their party.”

Georgia Supreme Court Justice Charles Bethel wants to know which “party” gets to set the rules. Is it the state party? Is it the county party? Is it both? In this case, the Catoosa County Republican Party passed a rule that said GOP candidates could qualify for the ballot only if the local party voted to allow it.

In a concurring opinion, Bethel wrote that it “seems likely” the state law includes the state political parties. But he said “it is not at all clear to me” if that law also gives county-level parties the authority to set such rules.

“I flag the question for more serious consideration,” he wrote.

As one veteran pol put it: “consider this a cry for help to the Gold Dome.”

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State Rep. Esther Panitch, a Democrat from Sandy Springs, is receiving criticism from colleagues for a social media post.

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

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Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

X POSTS. Democratic state Rep. Esther Panitch posted on X this week that if an LGBTQ+ group hosted a gay pride parade in Gaza or the West Bank, she “would pay to watch it live-streamed, or should I say dead streamed?”

The post, which has since been deleted, was a reply to an article published by the New York Post. It prompted condemnation online. Critics from her own party included state Sen. Josh McLaurin, who posted a screenshot of Panitch’s post.

Panitch, the lone Jewish member of the General Assembly, declined to comment. She replied to McLaurin on social media that his criticism of her was “more pearl clutching.”

McLaurin told the AJC’s Michelle Baruchman the problem with her post had nothing to do with the Israel-Hamas war or partisan back-and-forth. He said it was “the temperament of an elected official who consistently makes one issue her only issue and bullies anybody in her party, mostly, who doesn’t agree with her views.”

State Sen. Josh McLaurin criticized a social media post by state Rep. Esther Panitch. Both are Democrats from Sandy Springs.

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

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Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

McLaurin, who represents some of the same voters in Sandy Springs and Roswell as Panitch does in her district, also deactivated his Twitter account earlier this year after posts regarding the war between Israel and Hamas. Now he’s back on the social media site, saying his use of the account is “about standing up to bullies.”

State Sen. Kim Jackson, D-Stone Mountain, the only openly gay lawmaker in her chamber, was also critical of the tweet.

“It’s already hard to be queer in this world, and to be willing to pay money to watch people’s suffering is just a whole other level of continued oppression for a group that is already marginalized.”

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Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, is interviewed by members of National Association of Black Journalists on Tuesday in Philadelphia.

Credit: Matt Rourke/AP

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Credit: Matt Rourke/AP

THE GEORGIA EXAMPLE. Vice President Kamala Harris continues to bring up the story of a Georgia woman who died after waiting 20 hours in a metro Atlanta hospital to have fetal tissue removed from her uterus, which has been held up as an example of the fallout from the state’s six-week abortion ban.

During her question-and-answer session with members of the National Association of Black Journalists on Tuesday, Harris said the story of Amber Thurman is part of the chain reaction of former President Donald Trump appointing conservative justices to the Supreme Court who overturned Roe v. Wade.

“It appears the people who should have given her health care were afraid they would be criminalized after the Dobbs decision came down,” Harris said.

Harris also faced questions about the economy, reparations, immigration and regulating guns during the roughly 45-minute session. Although she appeared irked when moderators interrupted her sometimes lengthy responses, the interview overall was much less combative than Trump’s interview in August.

NABJ said this year was the first time both major party candidates addressed its members in person.

The Harris campaign released a new ad today on abortion that will air in Georgia and other competitive states.

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State Rep. Mary Margaret Oliver is a guest today on the "Politically Georgia" show.

Credit: Bob Andres/AJC

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Credit: Bob Andres/AJC

LISTEN UP. Today on “Politically Georgia,” the hosts discuss the AJC’s latest poll. Other guests include Georgia state Rep. Mary Margaret Oliver, D-Decatur, and Gerren Keith Gaynor, White House correspondent and managing editor of politics at theGrio.

You can listen live at 10 a.m. on WABE 90.1 or follow “Politically Georgia” on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Episodes are uploaded by noon each day, just in time to have lunch with us.

On Tuesday’s show, Deputy Secretary of State Jordan Fuchs talked about election administration. Also, listeners heard a pre-taped interview with Carter Center CEO Paige Alexander ahead of the “Jimmy Carter 100: A Celebration in Song” event on Tuesday.

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U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Rome Republican, did not support the spending plan of the House speaker.

Credit: Cliff Owen/AP

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Credit: Cliff Owen/AP

CONFUSING STRATEGY. U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson has decided to bring his plan to extend government funding for six months to the House floor today despite the likelihood there are not enough votes for it to pass.

Johnson decided to move forward without any changes to win over the critics. The bill still includes language to require proof of citizenship to register to vote for federal elections, meaning it is unlikely Democrats will support it.

U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene initially said she was open to supporting Johnson’s plan but ultimately decided to vote “no.” The Rome Republican said she does not believe Johnson is going to stick to his guns and insist the voting language stay attached to any short-term government funding legislation.

“I’m not going into a fight when our leader refuses to fight,” she said.

Others, like U.S. Rep. Buddy Carter, are hoping that enough Republicans rally around the speaker to pass the continuing resolution and give Johnson leverage in negotiating with the Senate.

“I urge my colleagues to vote yes on the CR so that we can avoid a shutdown, advance conservative priorities, and focus the remainder of this Congress on delivering on our Commitment to America,” the St. Simons Island Republican wrote on X.

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is holding a news conference today to discuss interest rates.

Credit: Susan Walsh/AP

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Credit: Susan Walsh/AP

TODAY IN WASHINGTON:

  • President Joe Biden will host a reception at the White House in celebration of Hispanic Heritage Month.
  • The U.S. House will vote on stopgap government funding legislation.
  • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will hold a news conference to discuss any action taken on lowering interest rates.
  • The Senate has more confirmation votes lined up.

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AD WARS. The political arm of Care in Action, a domestic worker advocacy group, is spending $1.75 million on digital ads running in Georgia ahead of the presidential election. The campaign is targeting Black women in hopes of motivating a key voting bloc for Democrats.

The first ad is about checking the status of voter registration to ensure eligibility ahead of balloting. The second, which comes in 15- and 30-second versions, accuses Gov. Brian Kemp and Georgia Republicans of policies that benefit the wealthy over working families.

The third ad has the most money behind it — $800,000 — and explicitly backs the campaign of Vice President Kamala Harris. This ad will run through election day on Facebook, YouTube and apps like Hulu.

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ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL. Events today include:

  • Second gentleman Doug Emhoff will speak at campaign fundraisers in New York City.
  • Vice President Kamala Harris will appear at the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute’s annual conference in Washington.
Former President Donald Trump speaks to supporters during a town hall on Tuesday in Flint, Michigan. He will be in New York today.

Credit: TNS

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Credit: TNS

  • Former President Donald Trump will speak at a town hall meeting in Uniondale, New York.
  • U.S. Sen. JD Vance of Ohio — Trump’s running mate — will campaign in Raleigh, North Carolina.
  • Former acting U.S. Attorney General Sally Yates will headline a fundraising event in Atlanta for Georgia WIN List.

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U.S. Rep. Nikema Williams, an Atlanta Democrat, is taking her talents to the booth where she will assist with the commentary for the Congressional Football Game.

Credit: Hyosub Shin/AJC

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Credit: Hyosub Shin/AJC

PLAY CALLER. Tonight is the annual Congressional Football Game where members of Congress and former professional players face off against members of the U.S. Capitol Police to raise money for charities benefitting former officers and children.

U.S. Rep. Nikema Williams, D-Atlanta, is listed as a member of the “Mean Machine” team of lawmakers and ballers, but we hear she is taking her talents to the booth where she will assist with the play-by-play commentary.

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AS ALWAYS, send your best scoops, gossip and insider info to greg.bluestein@ajc.com, tia.mitchell@ajc.com, patricia.murphy@ajc.com and adam.beam@ajc.com.