Most Americans had paid little if any attention to what was taking place in Britain this week until Friday. The referendum for Brexit, which sounds like something a rock star might name his child, had happened, and suddenly your 401K was looking a bit anemic.
Brexit and what it meant (the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union), shocked the world and the world’s markets -- the U.S. stock market fell 600 points.
The fallout was harsh in the UK. The British pound fell to a 30-year low, the Prime Minister, David Cameron, announce his resignation, the country not sits at the edge of a recession. The global reaction lead to huge stock markets sell-offs around the world resulting in the loss of an estimated $2 trillion in less than 24 hours.
What’s to come is not sure, but some think the UK’s vote to leave the EU could trigger similar referendums in France and Germany.
Here’s what the Brexit did to US market, savings and our psyches, and what they are saying about what could come in the future.
American politics
“The British vote also has similarities to the presidential race, according to Anthony Mason, the Senior Correspondent for business and economics at CBS News. “I think people in this country, campaigns in this country, have to look at what happened there, because the list of grievances for the ‘leave’ voters is very similar to the list of grievances for, say, Donald Trump voters,” Mason said on CBS This Morning. “They’re concerned about immigration, they feel like economically they’ve been left behind. The banks who all said, ‘Stay in, stay in,’ they feel like the banks have done fine after the recession, but they haven’t, so there’s a very similar list of grievances and those are the voters who turned out in England, in very strong numbers.” ”
EU Security
“Well, the most paranoid alarmists worry that Brexit will trigger a Frexit, which could trigger a Germexit, until the whole EU framework falls apart; and then the combination of slow-growth and ascendant right-wing nationalism could lead to the kind of zero-sum thinking that made Europe a charnel house for much of the 20th century. For all its faults, there’ve been no world wars since the EU was formed. More immediately (and certainly), Brexit will hurt European economic growth, and that could be a weight on the whole global economy.”
Your mortgage rate
“Plunging stocks immediately dented Americans' retirement accounts, but the ripple effects could also mean cheaper mortgages for some home buyers.”
Will there be a recession in the U.S.?
“If there is going to be a recession, it won't happen immediately. Bank of America Merrill Lynch is predicting a two- to three-quarter recession in the U.K. That doesn't mean the U.S. will go into a recession. In an interview on CNBC on Friday, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan was asked if he expected a recession. He said he is simply expecting a long period of stagnation — one of the most troubling periods, he said, he's ever seen. He envisions companies unsure about the future, and therefore reluctant to invest in their future. The result: sluggish growth. He added, however, that apart from the Brexit vote or European turmoil, the global economy — including the U.S. — already has been weak. He noted the stagnant pay among U.S. workers. The latest events just add strain to a sluggish global economy, according to Greenspan.”
A strong dollar equals damaged U.S. trade
“A strong dollar sounds good -- and it is for American travelers -- but it's bad for U.S. businesses that sell products overseas. On Friday morning, the U.S. dollar quickly rallied against the British pound, up 6.3% Friday, its biggest one-day gain since 1967, according to FactSet, a financial data firm. A strong dollar makes company's products more expensive -- and less attractive -- to buyers outside the U.S. That hurts sales for tech giants like Apple (AAPL, Tech30), equipment makers like Deere (DE) and Caterpillar (CAT) and global brands like Coca-Cola (KO) and Nike (NKE).”
Interest rate hikes less likely
“The U.K. is an important trading partner for the U.S. and a major source of investment. But even a severe recession in Britain — or even in the rest of Europe — will have only a modest impact on the U.S. economy. Much more significant, at least in the short-term, are the ripple effects that the Brexit could have on financial markets. A full-blown financial crisis is unlikely; there is no equivalent to the U.S. housing bubble waiting to pop. But the shock of the Brexit and the uncertainty over what happens next could make investors more cautious, hurting stock prices and making banks more reluctant to lend. That, in turn, would act as a drag on the U.S. economy at a time when it is already showing signs of slowing. The U.S. Federal Reserve was worried about the possible repercussions of a Brexit when it decided not to raise interest rates earlier this month; Thursday’s vote makes a rate hike in July much less likely.”
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