Danny now a hurricane, first of the season

Tropical Storm Danny was upgraded to a hurricane at the 11 a.m. update, earlier than forecast and the first of the 2015 Atlantic season.

The National Hurricane Center has Danny measured as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds, moving north, northwest at 12 mph. It’s about 1,090 from the Windward Islands with hurricane-force winds extending out 10 miles from the center.

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Danny wasn’t expected to gain hurricane strength until tomorrow, and forecasters noted that it is an “unusually small tropical cyclone.”

But since the 5 a.m. advisory the storm’s cloud pattern continued to form up.

“Danny’s compact size makes it subject to significant fluctuations in strength, both up and down, and such fluctuations are notoriously difficult to forecast,” the National Hurricane Center wrote in its 11 a.m. discussion.

Danny isn’t expected to encounter much in the way of wind shear for the next 36 hours, which means it could strengthen some. But the cyclone continues to be surrounded by dry mid-level air, that could get sucked into the storm and “disrupt intensification.”

The dry air that worked to break Danny up a bit yesterday wasn’t as evident this morning, but there is still wind shear over the Caribbean that Danny could encounter Sunday and into early next week.

The hurricane is expected to be downgraded to a tropical storm by Tuesday morning as it reaches Puerto Rico.

Danny could take a jog to the north before being forced back west by a subtropical ridge that is forecast to expand. Most tracking models this morning take Danny through the eastern Caribbean, and over Puerto Rico.

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Tropical Storm Danny was upgraded to a hurricane at the 11 a.m. update, earlier than forecast and the first of the 2015 Atlantic season.

The National Hurricane Center has Danny measured as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds, moving north, northwest at 12 mph. It’s about 1,090 from the Windward Islands with hurricane-force winds extending out 10 miles from the center.

Danny wasn’t expected to gain hurricane strength until tomorrow, and forecasters noted that it is an “unusually small tropical cyclone.”

But since the 5 a.m. advisory the storm’s cloud pattern continued to form up.

“Danny’s compact size makes it subject to significant fluctuations in strength, both up and down, and such fluctuations are notoriously difficult to forecast,” the National Hurricane Center wrote in its 11 a.m. discussion.

Danny isn’t expected to encounter much in the way of wind shear for the next 36 hours, which means it could strengthen some. But the cyclone continues to be surrounded by dry mid-level air, that could get sucked into the storm and “disrupt intensification.”

The dry air that worked to break Danny up a bit yesterday wasn’t as evident this morning, but there is still wind shear over the Caribbean that Danny could encounter Sunday and into early next week.

The hurricane is expected to be downgraded to a tropical storm by Tuesday morning as it reaches Puerto Rico.

Danny could take a jog to the north before being forced back west by a subtropical ridge that is forecast to expand. Most tracking models this morning take Danny through the eastern Caribbean, and over Puerto Rico.

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