Georgia students and their parents should prepare for troubling news Monday, when the Georgia Department of Education releases results of the new Georgia Milestones tests.

Administered last spring for the first time, the state standardized tests are replacing an older series of exams that were less rigorous.

State education officials warned to expect a higher failure rate with these spring 2015 scores, and early statewide results in September indicate those warnings were warranted.

“We’re coming out of the ‘land of proficiency,’ where everybody in Georgia met expectations,” said Melissa Fincher, the official in charge of testing at the Georgia Department of Education. She said state officials knew their tests were too easy.

“I don’t think anybody needs to overreact when they see the scores,” Fincher said. “This test is more rigorous, and so we’ll see fewer students who hit that proficient mark. It’s not because they know less, it’s because we expect more from them.”

State officials wanted to make their tests as hard to pass as a federally administered exam. Georgia students routinely rank near the bottom on the biannual National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), even though they did comparatively well on the old Criterion-Referenced Competency Tests and high school End of Course Tests.

This difference in results led an education advocacy group to accuse Georgia of an "honesty gap" with its homegrown tests, alleging that Georgians were "being told that students are proficient when by external benchmarks they're clearly not well prepared at all." The new Milestones exams are supposed to produce results closer to NAEP's.

It may not just be the at-risk students who get bad news. Students who grew accustomed to scoring at the top tier on the old tests may find themselves a notch below, at essentially the “B” level.

The old tests broke performance into three categories: “meets and exceeds” expectations, the highest performers; “meets,” and “does not meet,” which is the same as failing.

The new Milestones instead divide students into four groups: “distinguished;” “proficient;” “developing,” and “beginning,” which means failing.

Failing students could be held back. Parents of students who fail the reading exam in third, fifth and eighth grade must have a conference with their school about repeating the grade. The same goes for students who fail math in fifth and eighth grade. The tests also count for a fifth of the grade in high school courses.

To prepare parents for the new Milestones results, metro school districts have sent parents letters about the differences between the old and new tests and how the changes affect students.

Ehsan Kattoula, executive director of accountability and research for the Cobb County School District, said the district administers smaller tests throughout the year and intervenes with students who score low, offering extra tutoring and other assistance.

The Milestone scores are also important for teachers, because half of their performance evaluations will be based on how much their students improve during the school year. Most of the state's 180 school districts are applying for charters and other system contracts that allow them to operate with more freedom from state rules. They are being encouraged to revamp their pay structures to award teachers for performance rather than for advanced degrees and years on the job, which has been the standard practice.

All that is for the future, though. The current results will have no immediate effect on teacher evaluations or student grade promotion because last spring's test administration was basically a dry run. That, together with the elimination of another exam, the high school graduation test, may help explain the sharp increase in the number of diplomas handed out last spring. This week, officials reported that the state graduation rate soared more than 6 percentage points with the class of 2015. The rates in all metro Atlanta districts rose as well.

Fincher, Georgia’s deputy superintendent for assessment and accountability, explained the caution in using the new scores. “Any time you implement an initiative this large, there are some rocks along the road,” said. “It’s allowing everyone to digest this very new information.”

Also, because schools are scored on student “growth” — higher test scores from year to year — it will take another round of results to calculate change.

The outcome of the tests next spring will be the real nail biter. Unlike the lag with these scores, coming out half a year after the tests, state education officials say the next scores should be released a couple of weeks afterward.

The Milestones results come on the heels of the Obama administration’s recent announcement that it wants to cap test-taking time at 2 percent of classroom time, stating there’s too much testing in schools. State Superintendent Richard Woods was elected in 2014, in part, on his concerns about testing.

Several months ago Woods called for a testing audit to determine ways the state and local districts could reduce standardized tests. The results are expected next spring. Any pullback on state tests likely would require approval of Georgia lawmakers, and even Congress.

Natalie Rogers, a parent with a daughter at Walton High School in Cobb County, says she understands some testing is necessary, but she said schools place too much emphasis on the scores.

“The pressure is high to achieve,” she said. “In my opinion, it’s gotten way out of hand.”